Rumor: Nintendo drops the ball, puts Retro on "experimental non-game" (Wii audience, possibly Labo)

Looks like my fears were justified after all. Nintendo is focusing 100% on the Wii audience this year while the people who drove Switch to success last year get ports and scraps. This WILL backfire for them, and will make what could have been a 100 million selling console a 50-70 million seller at best (but will definitely sell more than 35 million no matter what). Hopefully they prove this wrong, but I have no hope.

https://twitter.com/Chris_Dring/status/953584504568008704

https://twitter.com/Chris_Dring/status/954278252557864960

It's amazing just how Nintendo can manage huge success while completely misreading the market. If they want that audience, they should be making smartphone games for them. They won't go for this, especially while Switch is $300. Meanwhile, core gamers who haven't bought Switch will skip it, and those who have will sell it due to lack of original content. This is a disaster. The best case for them is third-parties picking up the slack while Nintendo chases unicorns. Only smaller teams should be working on this crap. They've lost the plot and will suffer for it if true.

Bullshit until proven otherwise.

You’re the most reactionary poster on SW. utter drivel again

TC is fixated

Always bring this when going into a Techhog89 thread.

I would be very surprised if Nintendo put one of their most prestigious studios on a family friendly game or party game that didn't exercise their talents. I'll only believe it when I see it, but it really seems an unlikely turnabout that Nintendo would take a studio typically hired out to make games appealing to their core audience and have them work on something completely the opposite. Right now, I don't believe this rumor.

"Switch is finally dead" - OP

I could watch the Metroid Prime 4 logo reveal on loop for hours

Retro isn't working on Prime 4.

Sure... but their legacy is in tact and I still feel my interests are being catered too.

Play has been reviewed, and Nintendo maintained full possession of the ball.

This it guys the Switch is doomed. Now is forealz!

I knew I should have looked at who posted this before I came into the thread. I will never get these 4 minutes of my life back.

Dude, you wrote way too much on a rumor.

Anyway, Nintendo should just give Retro studios a budget and tell them to do what they want.

How about tree fiddy?

This was never going to sell 100 million units, especially if they only targeted the hardcore fanbase. If anything targeting casuals is the reason why it surpasses my 35 million estimate, but still won't hit 100 million even with the casuals. Depending on how successful Labo is out the gate, I might have to finally change my Switch sales estimate.

Nah, the other games that core gamers want are under development and this is what you would refer to as the "first year drought" which is actually coming in the Swtiches second year. They will just fill this drought with lesser casual games to build up sales until the next batch come out. New pokenmon, Metroid, Smash Bros, etc, etc, etc...

OP is just cray

They are focusing on casuals and hardcore gamers.

Casuals make companies more money.

Business 101.

Nintendo iz dooooomed

Talk about fear mongering... Even if a top tier developer made one game for Labo, I highly doubt they'd just quit making core games. There's no way Labo appeals to Nintendo's main demographic. This is for a specific market.

So now you're going to hide behind Labo and claim that it's the only reason for you being wrong so you can just say that you're only wrong because you didn't see it coming? That's rich! Dude, stop being stubborn. Just admit that it was a bad prediction and increase it. Switch is going to have shipped around half of your prediction by the end of March; when has a console ever been so frontloaded that it sold half of its total in the first 13 months? I guess it's hopeless now since it's clear that Labo will be at least a moderate success so you'll claim that it's the cause of you being wrong forever. I don't know why you're so adamant at this point. You aren't even able to give a reason anymore. First year demand outpaced 3DS everywhere except Japan and possibly Australia, and that's without an emergency price cut. Consoles peak in the year of either a big price cut or a landmark revision; Switch had neither of those in year 1. At the very least, admit that you're betting against the odds and have been for a while. Betting that a system with a mainline Pokemon would only sell 35 million in its lifetime after having such a good first year is pure delusion.

Also, I'm not saying that they shouldn't make casual games, but rather that they should be secondary to core games and shouldn't be Nintendo's main focus. They should release 2-3 casual games per year and the rest should be core games, and the teams making the games should not be main ones like Retro.

No. And before you say it, no, I haven't been banned there.

@techhog89: How the hell could I have taken this into consideration when I made my prediction? Nobody could have predicted this. My prediction was based on Switch for what it was originally shown as and taking into consideration all the 3DS teams that would make games for it. A product like Labo could easily change how well the Switch sells since it heavily targets casuals. Though, we will have to wait and see how well it does. I think pricing my be a bit of a problem, but people were willing to shell out $150+ for NES Classics second hand.

I already stated to you that my 35 million prediction was purposely low ball because I'm glass half empty when it comes to Nintendo these days. I never said that my prediction should be taken as gospel. When you look at N64, GC and Wii U sales my initial sales prediction isn't that ridiculous. You just take these things way too serious/personal. Have some fun man, stop taking things so seriously.

Switch is selling well right now without LABO or anything casual. So you're already wrong.

@Micropixel: I never said it wasn't selling well right now. I'm saying Switch was never going to sell 100 million units regardless of target market. The OG Wii was catching lightning in a bottle.

xD Till Retro says something about this..then I am gonna say BS!..& a big one at that. By that I mean if Nintendo just put Retro solely on Labo...if Retro make one or 2 games for Labo whilst also making the normal game then this rumour is BS.. if Nintendo did strictly just put Retro on Labo games only then I'll admit I am wrong. :P

Wow. Setting aside the fact that Retro could easily work on a low man hours side project for Labo while simultaneously working on a major console IP - which would render your entire doomsaying moot, none of what you are overinterpreting is substantiated. Nor is it clear any major repercussions would come from Retro working full time on a Labo project for - what - 6mos? A year? Given the scope of programming for that, how long could it take them. To say nothing of the fact Retro has been no identifiable part of the Switch's sales to date.

I get the feeling you are actively trawling the web for anything to spin is a sign of doom at this point

Or is Switch proof that it was more than that all along?

Also, my prediction before launch was even lower than yours. However, I changed it because I looked at its performance and why it was doing well, and then considered future factors. Honestly, the funniest thing about all this is that you think Labo will be a bigger seller than Pokemon and 2D Mario if it succeeds.

Yeah, I don't think the original Wii's success will ever be replicated (at least from a casual stand-point anyway). That system sold a lot of units with few hardware re-iterations. I'm not so sure the Switch can hit those kinds of numbers without some sort of technical revisions like the DS had with the DS Lite and the DSi.

I'd love to see them prove me wrong, though.

@techhog89: I'm going for it... Glad they aren't just following PS4 and Xbox.

Switch can do it, but not in the same way. Wii had a strong first 3 years and then slowed down massively. I think Switch can just sell well from start to finish if they play it right. It probably can't reach Wii's peaks, but with 6 years on the market Switch would need an average of 16.67 million units sold per year to reach 100 million; that's really not hard to do if the right moves are made to keep momentum steady. Meanwhile, 35 in 6 years when it's already sold at least 13 million in 10 months and should hit 15 million at minimum by the end of the quarter? That requires 4 million per year for the remaining 5 years. That's sub-GameCube levels and it's silly for anyone to believe that's even a remote possibility at this point.

I don't want them to do that either. They need to just make normal Nintendo games, not risky experiments that nobody asked for.

@techhog89: Eh, I hadn't even thought of asking for this. That's what makes it so cool. It's different. I doubt all Nintendo's focus will go to this. It reminds me of Mario paint way back in the day(Still have mine). If I didn't have a kid I'd probably not understand how cool this is for them. It's kinda like how I couldn't understand why so many kids loved Minecraft. But having a 5 year old, I can see this selling really well and kids loving it. Nintendo should make good money off it also. I doubt this will be a trend that last for years but while it's here it should be fun and profitable.

Implying 70 million sold is even bad. Implying the crazy good exclusives theyll have over the next few years wont make up for their weird experimental stuff. Implying making games that are already extremely popular, Doom/Skyrim, portable is a bad thing.

@techhog89: Don't underestimate the power of the casual market. Yes, if its marketed right and kids find it appealing, I can easily see it moving more Switch units than even Pokemon. Though, time will tell how well it does, but there is potential.

Also, GC only sold 21 million units LTD. I mention this because you compared Switch sales to GC. Switch will easily sell better than GC.

My point was that you're implying that, excluding the first year and without Labo being successful, Switch will drop to a lower rate of sales than GameCube inexplicably. You're saying that sales will drop by about 70% in year 2 and that casuals are the only way that could be prevented. That's dumb. Your prediction was semi-reasonable a year ago, but now it's really silly, and the fact that you're now going to claim that Labo is the only reason you were wrong is irritating.

@techhog89: No, I stated that while 35 million is my personal prediction I wouldn't count out 40 - 45 million sold simply because of Pokemon. I just wanted to stick with a consistent prediction and if I end up wrong, so be it, but yeah Labo could be somewhat of a game changer depending on how the kiddies react to it.

I guess there's no point in saying anything else. 45 million is also super lowball though, even if Labo sells zero units. There's going to be at least one year where it sells over 20 million; most likely two.

Wait you are the guy that thinks this is a Switch killer? Who would ever listen to what you have to say. ROFLMAO!

@techhog89: damn loch ness monsta.

Retro have been wasted for a decade imo. Not that the DK game weren't amazing but they can do so much more

@techhog89: How the hell is 45 million sold low ball? Switch in its current form is not a true 3DS replacement, so you will not see 3DS level sales. 35 - 45 million for a first hybrid device is very good sales numbers.

N64 = 35 million

GC = 21 million

Wii U = 14 million

3DS = 70 million currently

35 - 45 million is not low ball when you take everything above into account. I've stated many times that my 35 million unit prediction would change if Nintendo released a more portable Switch. I never would have imagined this Labo concept, which could also change my original estimate. If Labo is successful and Nintendo releases a Switch that is a true 3DS replacement then yes I can easily see it selling 60+ million units, but still not 100 million.

So, focusing on casual gaming is now a good thing? I'm so confused at this board.

@X_CAPCOM_X: Its a good thing for Nintendo since it helps bring in more sales. PC and PS4 has the hardcore crowd on lock.

As usual, you're taking everything into account except the Switch itself. You can't even give a reason for why you think it'll decline after the first year, not matter how many times I tell you that never happens without an exceptional reason, such as 3DS's emergency price cut. You're also extremely short-sighted and you don't account for anything that might happen in the future. You can't predict future sales based on nothing but the past; you have to consider the present too. Can you give a reason for why there will be a massive decline in Year 2 (and yes, even 45 million will require a 50-60% decline) without Labo even if Pokemon releases? Are you going to claim a decline for Pokemon for some reason too?

The only way I see 45 million is if Zelda and Mario are truly the only reasons Switch had a good year and all Nintendo fans already have the system by March.

Edit: Look up the concept of production schedules. You seem to be under the mistaken impression that Nintendo only cares about lifetime sales, so as long as those are an improvement over past consoles they'll be happy. But no, yearly sales are massively important. Look it up, and then make a connection to the emergency 3DS price cut; then you'll see why I'm saying that 45 million would be a failure coming off of such an impressive first year.

I believe you are the winner of This years most dumbest Post award by default not only do you forget that Nintendo still has games coming to the switch such as Metroid kirby dkc tropical freeze Hyrule warriors plus e3 ya your off the deep end period

@techhog89: I already stated why, because Switch is not a true 3DS replacement in its current form. Though, now with this Labo concept this could be a game changer to some extent. We will find out soon how successful Labo will be.

As far as Pokemon goes, I've stated many times that Switch will definitely see a huge spike in sales when that game gets released, but without a more portable Switch and Labo being very successful, the Switch will not hit 60+ million sold just on good games alone.

Again, you keep thinking I care if I end up being right or wrong with my prediction, I really couldn't care less. If I'm right I don't win anything and if I'm wrong I lose nothing, because at the end of the day its just for fun man.

Your answer is the most generic, non innovative answer someone could possibly come up with. Sure some companies like to play it safe, but a lot of others innovate to make the big bucks. If they went by your logic, they wouldn't be here today.

Don’t worry, in ten years, after 100 million sold, when nintendo ends switch production you will finally be able to delcare the switch dead.