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http://blogs.mercurynews.com/aei/2007/10/deans_take_on_npd_numbers_for_september.html
Dean's Take on NPD numbers for September
By Dean Takahashi
Friday, October 19th, 2007 at 12:12 am in Dean Takahashi, Dean and Nooch on Gaming, General.
This is clearly going to be the best year in video game history. NPD is predicting $17 billion to $18 billion for the year. The question is whether this is a temporary Halo 3 bubble or it just keeps on getting better from here on out.
To me, the overall growth of the market is what is astounding about the September numbers on video game sales from the NPD Group. Sales in the U.S. were up 74 percent to $1.3 billion in September compared to a year ago. Thanks to that growth, sales year to date are up 47 percent to $9.37 billion compared to a year ago. Surely this is the year the game industry eclipses music sales (if it hasn't already done so)?
Halo 3 explains much of this. But as Nooch notes, there is strength across the board. The Xbox 360 sold 527,800 consoles in the month, while Halo 3 sold 3.3 million copies - $225 million worth - during just 12 days of sales at the end of the month. And remember, that is just a U.S. number for Halo 3 sales. The three Halo SKUs accounted for the top three slots on the top ten list, even the Legendary version that cost an insane $129. The 360 finally outsold the Wii, which sold 501,000 units. Overall, the 360 sales grew 50 percent from August, which was a strong month because of the benefit of the $50 price cut. Moreover, Microsoft noted that Xbox 360 software outsold PS 3 software eight to one and Wii software by four to one.
The Wii is doing surprisingly well given the hype around Halo 3. Anita Frazier, analyst at NPD, noted that Nintendo finally started getting large numbers of consoles into the market. Sony, meanwhile, sold only 119,400 PlayStation 3s and 215,000 PlayStation 2s. Clearly, that's why Sony had to make the move to launch the 40-gigabyte console at $399. That should help put Sony back in the game, but I very much doubt that the former leader of the industry will move out of third place.
One piece of news that came out this week was that Sony pleaded with third-party developers not to abandon its struggling platform. That change in attitude is a marked difference compared to the arrogance of past years. The argument is that the PS 3 will show its strength as developers learn how to make games for it. But developers know they can staff four or five Wii teams with the same number of people it takes to make one PS 3 game. We may have a glut of Wii games soon, but that's not as bad as not having enough games on the PS 3.
The Xbox 360 is going to have a good season with games like "Mass Effect" and "Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare" still to come. Yes, I know it's also on the PS 3. But clearly it will sell more units on the Xbox 360. Sony managed to crack the top ten finally with a PS 3 title, "Heavenly Sword." But beyond Ratchet & Clank, it's unclear what is going to be a big seller for the company this season. We'll have to see the October numbers, but I expect that the Halo 3 blast radius is still going to have an effect, as will the entry of the $399 PS 3. As Frazier says, content is going to move hardware. With Super Smash Bros. pushing out, Microsoft looks like it has some of the strongest games yet to come in the season. Nintendo still has Super Mario Galaxy, and Sony will have to cross its fingers on Ratchet
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