Switch breaks past 10 million sold through! Will it now stop selling as many warriors claimed?

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KBFloYd

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#101 KBFloYd
Member since 2009 • 22714 Posts

@quadknight said:

@KBFloYd: The gen isn’t over, you’re in denial. PS4 is still selling 20 million a year without their sales slowing down. Just because WIU died prematurely doesn’t mean we are in a new gen ?.

sheep are in a new gen....SHEEP

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KBFloYd

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#102  Edited By KBFloYd
Member since 2009 • 22714 Posts
@FireEmblem_Man said:
@quadknight said:

@KBFloYd: The gen isn’t over, you’re in denial. PS4 is still selling 20 million a year without their sales slowing down. Just because WIU died prematurely doesn’t mean we are in a new gen ?.

How do you determine when a gen begins or ends?

this should be good

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QuadKnight

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#103  Edited By QuadKnight
Member since 2015 • 12916 Posts

@KBFloYd said:
@quadknight said:

@KBFloYd: The gen isn’t over, you’re in denial. PS4 is still selling 20 million a year without their sales slowing down. Just because WIU died prematurely doesn’t mean we are in a new gen ?.

sheep are in a new gen....SHEEP

That's not the way gens work. One faction can't be in a gen by themselves because they got rekt in the existing gen.

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KBFloYd

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#104  Edited By KBFloYd
Member since 2009 • 22714 Posts

@quadknight said:
@KBFloYd said:
@quadknight said:

@KBFloYd: The gen isn’t over, you’re in denial. PS4 is still selling 20 million a year without their sales slowing down. Just because WIU died prematurely doesn’t mean we are in a new gen ?.

sheep are in a new gen....SHEEP

That's not the way gens work. One faction can't be in a gen by themselves because they got rekt in the existing gen.

the xbox/ps2/GC gen. xbox was only out for about 4 years also... is xbox actually in gen 7?

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lulzcake

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#105 lulzcake
Member since 2017 • 7 Posts

As long as good games are coming out, more and more people will probably jump in!

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Techhog89

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#106 Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 5430 Posts

@Jag85 said:
@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:

@emgesp:

Another factor to add to the above is the fact that the Switch has now out-paced the PS4's first-year sales.

This part isn't true. It's slightly behind that, but only about half a month and it would be ahead if Japan weren't starved for supply. That said, PS4's initial launch didn't include Japan.

The Switch sold 10 million in 9 months. The PS4 sold 10 million in 10 months. The Switch has outpaced the PS4's first 10 months.

The Japan delay wouldn't have made much difference, since the PS4 didn't do that well in Japan anyway. On the other hand, the Switch's first ten months didn't even include a holiday season, which boosted the PS4's sales during that same 10-month period. The Switch outpaced the PS4 without a holiday season.

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/playstation-4-sells-10-million-units-sony-reveals-/1100-6421671/

That's less than 9 months after release.

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Jag85

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#107 Jag85
Member since 2005 • 20607 Posts

@techhog89: In that case, the PS4 hit the 10 million milestone about a week and a half earlier than the Switch. The difference, however, is that the PS4's sales include the holiday season, whereas the Switch's sales do not. After the holiday season, it's likely the Switch would out-pace the PS4's first-year sales.

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Techhog89

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#108  Edited By Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 5430 Posts

@Jag85 said:

@techhog89: In that case, the PS4 hit the 10 million milestone about a week and a half earlier than the Switch. The difference, however, is that the PS4's sales include the holiday season, whereas the Switch's sales do not. After the holiday season, it's likely the Switch would out-pace the PS4's first-year sales.

Yeah, it'll be ahead after December. Then PS4 will jump far ahead a couple of months later.

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#109 Jag85
Member since 2005 • 20607 Posts

@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:

@techhog89: In that case, the PS4 hit the 10 million milestone about a week and a half earlier than the Switch. The difference, however, is that the PS4's sales include the holiday season, whereas the Switch's sales do not. After the holiday season, it's likely the Switch would out-pace the PS4's first-year sales.

Yeah, it'll be ahead after December. Then PS4 will jump far ahead a couple of months later.

Only if the Switch loses momentum after the holiday season. But I don't see any reason to believe why it would.

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stuff238

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#110 stuff238
Member since 2012 • 3284 Posts

The switch is a mid gen refresh like PS4 Pro and X1X.

How can you guys not see that? The Switch is identical to the Wii u. It is just wireless now and they detached the sides into controllers.

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UssjTrunks

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#111  Edited By UssjTrunks
Member since 2005 • 11299 Posts

@emgesp: Xflop fan? Dealing with the truth is tough, I know. Switch will likely have tripled Xflop sales by the end of the gen.

It should easily pass PSuck sales too.

Sony/MS still have nightmares about the Wii. Somehow a 480p piece of junk with motion controls crushed both of their consoles in sales. It's why both companies have wasted billions developing gimmicks like Kinect and VR. They're still chasing the Wii in 2017 while Nintendo has moved on to bigger and better things, leaving Sony/MS in the dust again.

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Techhog89

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#112  Edited By Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 5430 Posts

@Jag85 said:
@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:

@techhog89: In that case, the PS4 hit the 10 million milestone about a week and a half earlier than the Switch. The difference, however, is that the PS4's sales include the holiday season, whereas the Switch's sales do not. After the holiday season, it's likely the Switch would out-pace the PS4's first-year sales.

Yeah, it'll be ahead after December. Then PS4 will jump far ahead a couple of months later.

Only if the Switch loses momentum after the holiday season. But I don't see any reason to believe why it would.

It'll fall behind because of PS4's second holiday season, which was much bigger than the first.

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Jag85

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#113  Edited By Jag85
Member since 2005 • 20607 Posts

@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:
@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:

@techhog89: In that case, the PS4 hit the 10 million milestone about a week and a half earlier than the Switch. The difference, however, is that the PS4's sales include the holiday season, whereas the Switch's sales do not. After the holiday season, it's likely the Switch would out-pace the PS4's first-year sales.

Yeah, it'll be ahead after December. Then PS4 will jump far ahead a couple of months later.

Only if the Switch loses momentum after the holiday season. But I don't see any reason to believe why it would.

It'll fall behind because of PS4's second holiday season, which was much bigger than the first.

But what makes you think the Switch's second holiday season wouldn't also be bigger than the first?

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UssjTrunks

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#114 UssjTrunks
Member since 2005 • 11299 Posts

@Jag85 said:
@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:
@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:

@techhog89: In that case, the PS4 hit the 10 million milestone about a week and a half earlier than the Switch. The difference, however, is that the PS4's sales include the holiday season, whereas the Switch's sales do not. After the holiday season, it's likely the Switch would out-pace the PS4's first-year sales.

Yeah, it'll be ahead after December. Then PS4 will jump far ahead a couple of months later.

Only if the Switch loses momentum after the holiday season. But I don't see any reason to believe why it would.

It'll fall behind because of PS4's second holiday season, which was much bigger than the first.

But what makes you think the Switch's second holiday season wouldn't also be bigger than the first?

Denial. It's all cows have left to cling onto.

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Techhog89

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#115  Edited By Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 5430 Posts

@Jag85 said:
@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:
@techhog89 said:

Yeah, it'll be ahead after December. Then PS4 will jump far ahead a couple of months later.

Only if the Switch loses momentum after the holiday season. But I don't see any reason to believe why it would.

It'll fall behind because of PS4's second holiday season, which was much bigger than the first.

But what makes you think the Switch's second holiday season wouldn't also be bigger than the first?

I'm not saying that it won't (it certainly will), but that won't come into play until much later. I said that PS4 will get ahead again; I didn't say that it will stay ahead.

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Heil68

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#116 Heil68
Member since 2004 • 60812 Posts

@emgesp said:

Now to the additional 25 million to match my predition of lifetime sales. Not ruling out 40 - 45 million, but as good as 3DS ain't happening.

Nor SONY's, (current gen console leader) 70 million PS4 number...

awwww yeahhhhh

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deactivated-6092a2d005fba

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#117  Edited By deactivated-6092a2d005fba
Member since 2015 • 22663 Posts

@KBFloYd said:
@lexxluger said:
@KBFloYd said:
@quadknight said:

Pretty safe to say Xbone is gonna end up being last or close to it by the end of the gen.

xbox already beat nintendo in the ps4 Gen.

the switch is next gen for nintendo. it will be ultimately compared with the ps5 and xbox two.

only thing switch can do is surpass xbox one last gen sales.

So...this is the second confirmed xbox fanboy hiding behind nintendo to expose himself other than @FireEmblem_Man?

These guys get so defensive over xbox even when the topic is Nintendo it's funny they think their cleverly UN-noticed because of their profile pics and user names.

I am pretty sure every lemming here has no respect for me whatsoever lol..i.p daily and me get along but that's it.

I just want playstation to lose so much. I am willing to partner with lem and herm brothers!

Quick say Xbox sucks because they're onto you man :P

Don't mind lex he lost his mind when he retired from wrestling without ever winning the WWF title, it's easy to get to lex just post this pic and he'll be crying in the corner in no time lol.

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FireEmblem_Man

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#118 FireEmblem_Man
Member since 2004 • 20385 Posts

@i_p_daily said:
@KBFloYd said:
@lexxluger said:
@KBFloYd said:

xbox already beat nintendo in the ps4 Gen.

the switch is next gen for nintendo. it will be ultimately compared with the ps5 and xbox two.

only thing switch can do is surpass xbox one last gen sales.

So...this is the second confirmed xbox fanboy hiding behind nintendo to expose himself other than @FireEmblem_Man?

These guys get so defensive over xbox even when the topic is Nintendo it's funny they think their cleverly UN-noticed because of their profile pics and user names.

I am pretty sure every lemming here has no respect for me whatsoever lol..i.p daily and me get along but that's it.

I just want playstation to lose so much. I am willing to partner with lem and herm brothers!

Quick say Xbox sucks because they're onto you man :P

Don't mind lex he lost his mind when he retired from wrestling without ever winning the WWE title, it's easy to get to lex just post this pic and he'll be crying in the corner in no time lol.

LOL yes! Lex Luger always sucked! Always in the back burner when it comes to Hulk Hogan, Macho Man, Sting, Kevin Nash, Scott Hall, Brett Hart, Shawn Michaels, The Undertaker, Mick Foley, The Rock, Kane, Stone Cold Steve Austin, Triple H, Chris Jericho, or even John Cena.

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Kjtc1979

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#119 Kjtc1979
Member since 2017 • 365 Posts

That the argument is now whether or not Switch is outpacing the PS4 says so much about how far the goalposts have moved this year.

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knight-k

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#120 knight-k
Member since 2005 • 2596 Posts

Switch will go to 50 mil and cap out around that number. They will get so high because of pokémon.

Switch won't catch PS4, quote me on that.

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UssjTrunks

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#121  Edited By UssjTrunks
Member since 2005 • 11299 Posts

@knight-k said:

Switch will go to 50 mil and cap out around that number. They will get so high because of pokémon.

Switch won't catch PS4, quote me on that.

You're about 100 million off of where they'll actually end up.

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#122  Edited By Sgt_Crow
Member since 2004 • 6099 Posts

@knight-k said:

Switch will go to 50 mil and cap out around that number. They will get so high because of pokémon.

Switch won't catch PS4, quote me on that.

It doesn't mean shit to quote you, since there's no value in anything you post. You'll just move the goal posts as soon as Switch goes beyond 50 mil.

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knight-k

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#123 knight-k
Member since 2005 • 2596 Posts

@Sgt_Crow said:
@knight-k said:

Switch will go to 50 mil and cap out around that number. They will get so high because of pokémon.

Switch won't catch PS4, quote me on that.

It doesn't mean shit to quote you, since there's no value in anything you post. You'll just move the goal posts as soon as Switch goes beyond 50 mil.

I have no crystal ball so sure Switch could go higher than 50 mil but I don't think by much.

One thing is sure, Switch will not catch up on PS4 sales.

And thx for quoting me sgt_cry.

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#124  Edited By SecretPolice
Member since 2007 • 45541 Posts

Freakin Handhelds = LOL..... Play VG at home, when not at home play the game of life for a change,. lol

That ought to get'em. :P

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#125  Edited By Sgt_Crow
Member since 2004 • 6099 Posts

@knight-k said:
@Sgt_Crow said:
@knight-k said:

Switch will go to 50 mil and cap out around that number. They will get so high because of pokémon.

Switch won't catch PS4, quote me on that.

It doesn't mean shit to quote you, since there's no value in anything you post. You'll just move the goal posts as soon as Switch goes beyond 50 mil.

I have no crystal ball so sure Switch could go higher than 50 mil but I don't think by much.

One thing is sure, Switch will not catch up on PS4 sales.

And thx for quoting me sgt_cry.

You're contradicting yourself yet again, knight-knucklehead.
When will you learn?

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jorzorz

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#126 jorzorz
Member since 2017 • 114 Posts

switch is really cool, love being able to take AAA games with me so easily. still needs some work but its a very well done machine. Most of the haters are just nintendo haters or enjoy counting pixles more than games themselfs.

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Aki2017

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#127 Aki2017
Member since 2017 • 817 Posts

@Sgt_Crow said:

"Switch sales will now magically come to a grinding halt and the console will die a slow and painful death."

- Your average brain dead System Warrior

LOLO - good one

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sonny2dap

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#128 sonny2dap
Member since 2008 • 2211 Posts

Yep good movement from the Switch, but can we all remember the switch is achieving this on weaker hardware, at a comparatively higher price point and with a limited software offering, all signs point to increased 3rd party support and we're still looking at some big first party offerings that have appeal beyond the usual Nintendo core (ahem Pokemon ahem), and we're almost certainly going to see price drops in the next 12 months or so. At this point a sudden slow down/halt in demand seems rather unlikely.

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#129 Solaryellow
Member since 2013 • 7338 Posts

Nintendo will have leverage where it can and will eventually drop the price of the Switch and that alone will will help with any momentum and sales swings. Just wait until it hits 3DS price levels.

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Jag85

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#130 Jag85
Member since 2005 • 20607 Posts

@Solaryellow said:

Nintendo will have leverage where it can and will eventually drop the price of the Switch and that alone will will help with any momentum and sales swings. Just wait until it hits 3DS price levels.

Even at its current price point, demand is still outstripping supply. It would sell a lot more if the supply could meet demand. Once they have enough supply, and then they eventually reach a point where demand drops lower than supply, that's when a price drop would boost the demand up again.

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Techhog89

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#131  Edited By Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 5430 Posts

@Jag85 said:
@Solaryellow said:

Nintendo will have leverage where it can and will eventually drop the price of the Switch and that alone will will help with any momentum and sales swings. Just wait until it hits 3DS price levels.

Even at its current price point, demand is still outstripping supply. It would sell a lot more if the supply could meet demand. Once they have enough supply, and then they eventually reach a point where demand drops lower than supply, that's when a price drop would boost the demand up again.

Other than Japan, the shortages have ended. Anyone in North America or Europe can purchase a Switch right now without any waiting.

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deactivated-63181ff40994a

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#132 deactivated-63181ff40994a
Member since 2017 • 575 Posts

Switch sucks..........deal with it.

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FireEmblem_Man

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#133 FireEmblem_Man
Member since 2004 • 20385 Posts

@fastnslowww said:

Switch sucks..........deal with it.

Cool story bro

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#134  Edited By Kjtc1979
Member since 2017 • 365 Posts

@techhog89: in the U.S., Nintendo is doing a better job of replenishing stock, but the system is still going in and out of stock regularly online. Brick and mortar retailers are getting huge shipments of Switch on a regular basis, to the point where the big box retailers can advertise it without the disclaimer that stock is limited, because Nintendo keeps sending them more units. Nintendo has flooded the market for the holidays and they will have a huge December because of it. Will they fully meet demand in NA for the Holidays? We will know if it’s still available to buy right before and right after Christmas. If it was sold out now in their biggest market, that would mean Nintendo had really under delivered in stock for the holiday season.

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#135  Edited By emgesp
Member since 2004 • 7849 Posts

@Jag85:

@Jag85 said:
@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:

@techhog89: In that case, the PS4 hit the 10 million milestone about a week and a half earlier than the Switch. The difference, however, is that the PS4's sales include the holiday season, whereas the Switch's sales do not. After the holiday season, it's likely the Switch would out-pace the PS4's first-year sales.

Yeah, it'll be ahead after December. Then PS4 will jump far ahead a couple of months later.

Only if the Switch loses momentum after the holiday season. But I don't see any reason to believe why it would.

It will because no big AAA exclusives are coming out anytime soon. At least not 1st Quarter of 2018. Unless you consider a port of Bayonetta 2 a big AAA exclusive that has enough appeal to keep momentum going.

@Jag85 said:

Even at its current price point, demand is still outstripping supply. It would sell a lot more if the supply could meet demand. Once they have enough supply, and then they eventually reach a point where demand drops lower than supply, that's when a price drop would boost the demand up again.

Fake News, you can easily find Switch consoles now. My local store hasn't had any stock issues for at least two months now.

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#137 Kjtc1979
Member since 2017 • 365 Posts

@emgesp said:

@Jag85:

@Jag85 said:
@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:

@techhog89: In that case, the PS4 hit the 10 million milestone about a week and a half earlier than the Switch. The difference, however, is that the PS4's sales include the holiday season, whereas the Switch's sales do not. After the holiday season, it's likely the Switch would out-pace the PS4's first-year sales.

Yeah, it'll be ahead after December. Then PS4 will jump far ahead a couple of months later.

Only if the Switch loses momentum after the holiday season. But I don't see any reason to believe why it would.

It will because no big AAA exclusives are coming out anytime soon. At least not 1st Quarter of 2018. Unless you consider a port of Bayonetta 2 a big AAA exclusive that has enough appeal to keep momentum going.

@Jag85 said:

Even at its current price point, demand is still outstripping supply. It would sell a lot more if the supply could meet demand. Once they have enough supply, and then they eventually reach a point where demand drops lower than supply, that's when a price drop would boost the demand up again.

Fake News, you can easily find Switch consoles now. My local store hasn't had any stock issues for at least two months now.

The analysis from Jag85 is correct, and it is not fake news. Demand is still outstripping supply, despite Nintendo significantly increasing production. That Switch is now more readily available in stores indicates that they are doing a better job of meeting demand, not that they've met it to the point where they have more supply than demand. When they reach that tipping point, games or a gift card will be bundled and/or the price will be reduced, either temporarily (a la the PS4 discount last month which cleaned out all overstock nationwide), or permanently. They don't appear to be anywhere near that tipping point yet, not even in the U.S., which has been flooded with units. The online retailers are still struggling to keep it in stock - currently, you can get it on Best Buy and Amazon but only as a pre-order that ships Dec. 20 - or are still getting away with gating their units through game/accessory bundles, which is what Gamestop is still doing.

As long as Nintendo is still selling this thing at 249.99 without any bundles or discounts or even temporary sales/incentives like the $199 plus $50 giftcard promotion that blew up PS4 sales during Black Friday Week, that means supply and demand have yet to balance out. That's basic video game economics. Not fake news.

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Techhog89

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#138 Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 5430 Posts

@emgesp said:

@Jag85:

@Jag85 said:
@techhog89 said:
@Jag85 said:

@techhog89: In that case, the PS4 hit the 10 million milestone about a week and a half earlier than the Switch. The difference, however, is that the PS4's sales include the holiday season, whereas the Switch's sales do not. After the holiday season, it's likely the Switch would out-pace the PS4's first-year sales.

Yeah, it'll be ahead after December. Then PS4 will jump far ahead a couple of months later.

Only if the Switch loses momentum after the holiday season. But I don't see any reason to believe why it would.

It will because no big AAA exclusives are coming out anytime soon. At least not 1st Quarter of 2018. Unless you consider a port of Bayonetta 2 a big AAA exclusive that has enough appeal to keep momentum going.

@Jag85 said:

Even at its current price point, demand is still outstripping supply. It would sell a lot more if the supply could meet demand. Once they have enough supply, and then they eventually reach a point where demand drops lower than supply, that's when a price drop would boost the demand up again.

Fake News, you can easily find Switch consoles now. My local store hasn't had any stock issues for at least two months now.

And this is your reason for believing that sales will drop by 50-60% next year?

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emgesp

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#139  Edited By emgesp
Member since 2004 • 7849 Posts

@techhog89: No, that has nothing to do with my prediction. My prediction came before we knew how well Switch was going to sell initially and I still haven't changed my prediction. 35 million is my prediction give or take a couple million. 40+ million could happen, but 60+ million like 3DS is not likely even if they drop the price to $199.99 in a couple of years. People who say 100+ million are ridiculous and I shouldn't even be acknowledging them as their predictions just come from straight up delusional fanboyism. At least my numbers aren't totally unrealistic considering how well the N64, GC and Wii U sold.

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#140  Edited By emgesp
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@kjtc1979: Where are you getting this $249.99 price for the Switch?

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#141 Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 5430 Posts

@emgesp said:

@techhog89: No, that has nothing to do with my prediction. My prediction came before we knew how well Switch was going to sell initially and I still haven't changed my prediction.

So, basically, you still don't care about context and you're just taking that "esp" part of your name too seriously. lolok

Well, as long as you man up and admit that you were wrong by the end of next year all will be well.

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#142  Edited By emgesp
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@techhog89: Of course I'll admit I was wrong and I'd love for Nintendo to prove me wrong.

If we went by early sales then you probably thought the Wii U was going to do rather well. I knew it was going to tank the moment it was announced and shown off. It actually did even worse than what I initially thought it would do. Now, obviously I don't think the Switch will flop considering my 35 million prediction, but I also don't think its going to blow the roof off in terms of lifetime sales either.

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#143  Edited By Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 5430 Posts

@emgesp said:

@techhog89: Of course I'll admit I was wrong and I'd love for Nintendo to prove me wrong.

If we went by early sales then you probably thought the Wii U was going to do rather well. I knew it was going to tank the moment it was announced and shown off. It actually did even worse than what I initially thought it would do. Now, obviously I don't think the Switch will flop considering my 35 million prediction, but I also don't think its going to blow the roof off in terms of lifetime sales either.

There's a big difference between judging off of 1-2 months (we knew Wii U was flop by January) and judging off of 9, especially when a new entry Pokemon is already confirmed. And 35 million would still be a flop and unsustainable for Nintendo since they don't have a handheld to fall back on. Either way though, if it's too early to say it'll do well, then it's also too early to say it'll do poorly, especially when your reasoning is based 100% on smartphones killing handhelds while 3DS is up over last year in the US and Switch has beaten 3DS's launch year everywhere except Japan, and only due to supply constraints.

Pointless argument I guess though. We'll see in a year. I bet that Switch will be at at least 22-25 million shipped by January 2019, which will definitely give us a good idea of where it's going.

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#144 Kjtc1979
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@emgesp said:

@techhog89: Of course I'll admit I was wrong and I'd love for Nintendo to prove me wrong.

If we went by early sales then you'd probably would have thought Wii U was going to do rather well. I knew it was going to tank the moment it was announced and shown off. It actually did even worse than what I initially thought it would do.

Early Wii U sales were disastrous. It only shipped 3.91 million units in its first nine months, and 3.06 of that were the holiday shipment, a good chunk of which were returned to Nintendo in January.

Switch didn't even launch in a holiday season, and it had already shipped 4.7 million units after just four months on the market. It's blown through 10 million sold, not even shipped, in just nine months. The Wii U limped across that number shipped - 10.01 million, after 2 1/2 years on the market.

You can keep portraying yourself as some kind of oracle, but you've been picking up and dropping talking points as they became less convenient. You spent a good few months insisting that the Switch was only being purchased by Wii U owners, without any evidence to back it up. You're already moving the goalposts for lifetime sales to 40 million, and will adjust it again when that number proves unrealistic, just like you dropped the talking points already about the system being overpriced for parents and the console itself being shoddily manufactured. I remember you saying it was DOA at 299.99, yet here it is outpacing the 3DS despite its dramatic price cut first year, and matching PS4's first ten months without having a December in the mix like that system did.

You've been consistently wrong and consistently moving goalposts and thinking nobody's noticing. Why should your analysis be taken any more seriously now, given your track record?

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#145 Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 5430 Posts
@kjtc1979 said:
@emgesp said:

@techhog89: Of course I'll admit I was wrong and I'd love for Nintendo to prove me wrong.

If we went by early sales then you'd probably would have thought Wii U was going to do rather well. I knew it was going to tank the moment it was announced and shown off. It actually did even worse than what I initially thought it would do.

Early Wii U sales were disastrous. It only shipped 3.91 million units in its first nine months, and 3.06 of that were the holiday shipment, a good chunk of which were returned to Nintendo in January.

Switch didn't even launch in a holiday season, and it had already shipped 4.7 million units after just four months on the market. It's blown through 10 million sold, not even shipped, in just nine months. The Wii U limped across that number shipped - 10.01 million, after 2 1/2 years on the market.

You can keep portraying yourself as some kind of oracle, but you've been picking up and dropping talking points as they became less convenient. You spent a good few months insisting that the Switch was only being purchased by Wii U owners, without any evidence to back it up. You're already moving the goalposts for lifetime sales to 40 million, and will adjust it again when that number proves unrealistic, just like you dropped the talking points already about the system being overpriced for parents and the console itself being shoddily manufactured. I remember you saying it was DOA at 299.99, yet here it is outpacing the 3DS despite its dramatic price cut first year, and matching PS4's first ten months without having a December in the mix like that system did.

You've been consistently wrong and consistently moving goalposts and thinking nobody's noticing. Why should your analysis be taken any more seriously now, given your track record?

Yeah, he did go from "30 million, 35 million absolute tops" to "35 million, 40-45 million unlikely but possible, 3DS-level impossible," and is claiming that nothing changed. I thought about calling him out but decided not to. Switch will likely be over 15 million shipped in Nintendo's FY2017 report in April, which will mean a change to 35-40 million most likely.

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#146  Edited By emgesp
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@techhog89:

My prediction is still 35 million. I simply stated that 40 million isn't impossible. I haven't changed my prediction at all.

My main reason for the 35 million sales is I think the Switch is too big and expensive to be considered a 3DS replacement.

If Nintendo comes out with a smaller Switch with better battery life and at a $199.99 price point then I will increase my sales prediction.


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#147  Edited By emgesp
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@kjtc1979: I always said Switch would do well initially, but wasn't going to be a 3DS level success. I've also stated many times that it would easily outsell the Wii U. I don't know why you guys take issue with my 35 million prediction. As if 35 million is a horrible sales number.

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#148  Edited By Techhog89
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@emgesp said:

@kjtc1979: I always said Switch would do well initially, but wasn't going to be a 3DS level success. I've also stated many times that it would easily outsell the Wii U. I don't know why you guys take issue with my 35 million prediction. As if 35 million is a horrible sales number.

As Nintendo's only hardware? Yes, it's horrible. The rate of sales suddenly dropping by 60% would also be terrible and would be reflected in a similar drop in Nintendo's market value. If you think Nintendo would be happy with those sales you really haven't a clue what you're talking about.

If you really don't understand, would you like me to post or PM you a detailed explanation on why there's more to success than just numbers sold? By the way, my problem isn't mainly that it's an unhealthy number, but rather that it's a stupid prediction with no thought put into or context taken into consideration.

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#149 Kjtc1979
Member since 2017 • 365 Posts

@techhog89 said:
@emgesp said:

@kjtc1979: I always said Switch would do well initially, but wasn't going to be a 3DS level success. I've also stated many times that it would easily outsell the Wii U. I don't know why you guys take issue with my 35 million prediction. As if 35 million is a horrible sales number.

As Nintendo's only hardware? Yes, it's horrible. The rate of sales suddenly dropping by 60% would also be terrible and would be reflected in a similar drop in Nintendo's market value. If you think Nintendo would be happy with those sales you really haven't a clue what you're talking about.

Switch selling only 35 million at this point would require a sales drop-off that would be unprecedented for a console that has sold at this rate so far. Nintendo's opened up big revenue streams to replace the two hardware model - mobile, retro consoles, merchandising, theme park licensing, and movie deals - so they don't have to replicate Wii+DS or anything crazy like that. But I'm sure they see the eventual LTD of the 3DS as their minimum target at this point. That alone would put it well past every home console except the Wii and in the league of its handheld numbers.

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#150 Kjtc1979
Member since 2017 • 365 Posts

@emgesp said:

@techhog89:

My prediction is still 35 million. I simply stated that 40 million isn't impossible. I haven't changed my prediction at all.

My main reason for the 35 million sales is I think the Switch is too big and expensive to be considered a 3DS replacement.

If Nintendo comes out with a smaller Switch with better battery life and at a $199.99 price point then I will increase my sales prediction.

So your prediction will change should the Switch receive what every home and portable console receives - price drops - and what almost all of them also receive - smaller form factors.

Nice exit strategy. Doesn't change the fact that you claimed it was DOA at $299.99, but it will save you some face when Switch easily blows past your prediction sometime in the 2019 FY.