Switch breaks past 10 million sold through! Will it now stop selling as many warriors claimed?

@kjtc1979: A price drop is a given, but a much smaller and more portable Switch isn't. I'm saying if all those things happen I will change my prediction, not if only one of those things happens. Well, I must have changed my tune of DOA rather quickly because I've stated 35 million since very early 2017.

So, on top of everything else, your prediction also hinges on Switch never getting a revision or price cut... or so you say. Conveniently, that can be used to excuse your prediction change once there's a price cut next year. This just gets better and better!

And let me guess: It's currently selling to Wii U owners right now so once it passes Wii U momentum will come to a screeching halt, correct?

Oh. Fair enough but still... lol. When will it stop selling well?

@techhog89: It will begin to slow down sometime in 2018 and then you'll see a sales surge whenever either Pokemon or Smash releases, but after that sales will go back down.

Pokemon is really going to be Switch's biggest killer app. That is when I say that 40+ million isn't impossible mainly because of that franchise. If Pokemon launches with a cheaper and more portable Switch then my prediction will definitely be wrong.

As far as price drops are concerned I'm not expecting anything major in 2018. Perhaps a drop down to $279.99 at most.

Only failed consoles perform like that (bad sales most of the year with decent spikes when there's big software). We'll see, but the kind of drop you're expecting is unprecedented; it has never happened to any system ever released. Wii U was the closest instance, but that was after less than two months and a lot of the launch sales were from wannabe scalpers hoping for another Wii. I think your second biggest issue is that you judge it as a 100% pure handheld, and your third biggest issue is lack of understanding of why Wii U failed.

And of course the fourth issue is the fact that you're bad at math and don't seem to understand how low you're saying sales will drop. You also seem to think that Nintendo pays for manufacturing after shipping if you think that they can have such a huge drop without ending up selling at a loss. There are rumors that Nintendo wants to produce over 20 million units next year; ending up with only 4-6 after that target would make the Wii U losses look like nothing.

@techhog89: Well how well do you think it will sell? Just want to see where our numbers differ.

45 million is the minimum I'd say, assuming that momentum is lost and doesn't recover. The reason is that sales momentum is something lost gradually, not all of a sudden. Otherwise, assuming that Nintendo times game releases, price drops, and revisions optimally, I'd expect somewhere in the range of 65-85 million shipped over a period of 6 years with a successor released around 5 years and 8 months in. Looking at the patterns typically followed by successful Nintendo hardware, the peak would not be in year one as you assume (it's actually rare for any gaming hardware to peak in year one unless it fails like Wii U, gets an early emergency price cut like 3DS, or gets its legs cut off early due to direct competition), the peak will most likely be in year 3. The reason for that is because Year 3 for Nintendo systems is often a trifecta of perfect conditions for growth: best year for software, first major price cut/Black Friday sales, and a hardware revision. If Pokemon launches next year, it'll be bigger than this year was even after a somewhat slow start. If the start is slow though, the fact that it sold so well and forced Nintendo to bump up production so much means that they'll likely cut the price around summer if they need to. That said, your reasoning for believing it'll slow down so much is largely based around a lack of software in the first half. That's reasonable, but do keep in mind that Nintendo doesn't announce games too long before release unless they need to build hype for the console or it's Zelda. We'll see what happens in January, and that might affect my expectations. Either way though, Nintendo's 14 million shipment target for this FY (which they'll have to miss majorly for your prediction to come true) would put them at ~16.7 million shipped total in the first 13 months. We'll say that it'll land in a range of 15-17 million. Any less than that and heads will roll. If Pokemon, a Pokemon Edition Switch, and a Black Friday deal all happen next November, and factoring in that there's no sign of it slowing down whatsoever in Japan, I'd say that 12-15 million should be about right for how much they ship in FY 2018, more if there's a price cut, and 9-12 million (4-5 million in Japan alone) otherwise. FY 2019 will almost certainly have a price cut and a revision of some sort, as well as Metroid Prime 4 and probably Smash and Animal Crossing, along with Pokemon momentum still being in effect and potentially Monster Hunter in some form, but probably not. As I said, I expect that to be the peak the peak year with 14-18 million shipped. Then it'll slow down and average 10-14 million per year for the next two years, and 7-10 million in the year the successor is announced and released.

Adding the minimums that comes out perfectly to 65 million, and the maximums come to 88 million. I can see this being overly optimistic, but I can't see it being 30 million too high. Keeping with the estimation of 15 million for the year and assuming 37 million shipped in total (since I think you're talking about sold), and we'd be looking at an average of 5.5 million over the next 4 years, or 4.4 over the next 5. I've never seen a drop like that happen before. If you're correct though. I'd never doubt anything you say again. It's just that Japan alone could manage 4.4 million for a couple of years easily.

It's impossible to truly predict where it'll be until stock is stable worldwide though. Japan still isn't even close to being stable, so for all we know it has DS-level demand there.

@techhog89 I would love for Nintendo to prove me wrong and if they can hit 50+ million sold than good for them. I enjoyed my experiences with the Switch, but won't buy one until more games that interest me come out and a price drop happens.

That's what's making it hard for you: you're heavily influenced by your personal opinion of the console. You view it as a handheld with TV out (rather than a hybrid), and since it's not as portable as 3DS you can't see any way it could be nearly as successful. You don't see appealing games coming next year so far, so you can easily see the momentum completely dying. It's unintentional, but you apply your opinion to the market at large and thus can't see a strong value or appeal in the hardware. It's fair enough that you feel that way, but the issue is that it makes it difficult for you to judge hardware not targeted at you. You probably feel that's incorrect since you were right about Wii U, but I don't think even Nintendo knows who the target for that was.

Sales for the Switch will only continue to accelerate. That is the normal progression for any popular console. The first year is not the peak, because supply is at its lowest, hardware quality is at its lowest, and the console is at it's lowest appeal. Costs are high, and the library is small, just like all launch consoles.

Third parties have taken notice of the Switch. We are getting a trickle now, with signs like Doom and Wolfenstein II being just a herald of what's to come. If a game company wants to be profitable, they would be fools to avoid the Switch. When that 2nd wave hits, quality will be up and costs will be down.

There's just no reason why the sales would slump. Most of the Switch's sales so far are not even from Nintendo fans. You can only rely on those hardcore fans for WiiU level of sales. The Switch has captured the mainstream

@techhog89: About 2018. I know Nintendo likes to announce games much closer to release, but do you think they are holding some megatons for 2018? There is currently nothing announced for early 2018 that I feel is going to keep the momentum rising. Do you think a port of Bayonetta 2 is really going to make a huge impact on sales? What has been announced so far for 2018 that interests you?

@GunSmith1_basic: Sales won't continue to rise without a steady stream of high quality games getting released. There is currently nothing announced for 2018 besides a port of Bayonetta 1 and 2.

My point was that we should wait. Remember that at this time last year, the only officially announced 2017 game for Switch was BotW. If there's nothing announced in the January conference, then you can say that momentum will die down. Even then though, after taking into account the spikes you expect sales would have to drop to level not far off from Wii U for your expectations to happen. You're also looking at Nintendo's titles in the same way as typical AAA titles that are frontloaded and then basically stop selling. Nintendo's titles are evergreen and have momentum of their own, so they'll carry some weight.

Also, again, Japan. They have a lot of smaller titles coming due to Vita and 3DS devs jumping in. Either way, I do believe that some momentum will be lost in the first half of the year outside of Japan, but I don't think it'll be the dramatic drop you're expecting. If you're going to say that it's not dramatic, tell me how much you expect it to sell next year and I'll show you why it's insanely low.

Wont view the Switch as a success until it passes the 3DS in sales. 3DS is what it needs to pass. Good for Nintendo. They may be able to pass up Xbox.

This is what to watch for.

Can it out sell the Wii U?

Can it out sell the 3DS family?

Can it out sell the Xbox One?

It will NOT outside PlayStation 4. BOOK IT.

It'll continue to sell, no doubt. Even with Christmas almost here not everyone who wanted one will have gotten it. So that'll keep sales going, and with new game announcements will come new people who want to get it just for those games and a few others, like Smash Bros.

It's going to sell for quite some time.

The real test will come over the next couple of years, having no new Zelda or mainline Mario games releasing. You'd think the next game that'll really push consoles will be Pokemon.

You determine it when the previous Gen WINNER replaces that console. Its not hard guys. Both Wii U & Switch are Generation 8. Gen 9 does not start until PlayStation 5 is released, because PlayStation 4 is leading the back now. Gen 7 didnt start with the Xbox 360 it started when the PlayStation 3 & Wii came out because PS2 owned Gen 6. When the winners replace that is when a new Gen starts. Wii U & Switch are BOTH Gen 8 systems.

lmao

So is PS4 not a success until it passes PS3? And PS3 was a failure for not passing PS2?

Negative! Playstation fanboys ARE annoying, but let's not forget that the lems campaigned right long with the cows for Nintendo to go third party. Herms aren't arguing as much (mostly due to emulators), but they have tried it as well. They're all trash to be honest. I'm not teaming up with either of them. I actually just got done reading a thread where lems and cows were ripping each other to shreds and had a ball.

Are you high? LOL

Well, the PS4 has a big head-start of several years, so it's unlikely the Switch would actually catch-up to the PS4.

@Coolyfett: Switch is Gen 9, deal with it

Industry-wide generations are dead.

AS i predicted a year and a half ago that Switch having a nice chance if Nintendo gets serious with game releases when everyone here and in other big forums, including sheep thought otherwise. " But but Azatis, you hating Nintendo ". Yeah, keeping it real and having 9.99/10 predictions = hate because hearing some facts or different opinions = hate.

As of if Switch " is a home console equipped with a variety of unique features " and the obsession of sheep to take this as a home console, i predicted will backfire along the way and that sheep will start hiding behing portability, something that i predicted will happen by 2019/2020 with the arrival of 9th generation consoles of SONY/MS when the gap in power and features will be huge though for a strange reason it started already, way earlier than my prediction with some multis like DOOM.

So, home console when it comes to sales and hype and exclusives ... handheld when people start the head to head comparisons with real consoles on same games. EXACTLY what i predicted BEFORE Switch get a release. And i can prove everything im saying or said again and again if someone thinks otherwise ( i heard that before )

Now, thank god there are some people with brains and understand that Switch is nothing else than a great handheld, the best handheld, the one and only handheld , YOU name it handheld that lets you play your games on TV aka = a handheld with TV connectivity similar to other devices ( PC etc ) and not a console. For the rest, your time will come and ill be there to say " i told you so " like i did with N64, Wii and Wii U predictions over and over.

Anyways !! Dont want to ruin your thread, gratz to Switch, i knew it could do it even before i knew was a handheld or whatever, i knew only its codename = NX.

No offense but your English is not good enough for long posts like this. I had to read every line 2-5 times and I'm still not 100% sure on some of your points.

So cows and lems were incorrect in saying that Nintendo needed YouTubers to promote the Switch and it needed to be more powerful.

Nintendo isn't the most successful gaming company of all time without knowing what they're doing.

As long as you get my point i dont care about my english. Learned english on my own thru internet, try do the same yourself and lets see how youll do. I take this as a salty way to try to counter what im saying, because theres nothing else to say actually. You run out of arguments every time. Salt for the win. Keep crying about my english, its fine.

Well you can add +1 to that number. I just picked up a Switch myself today. Good times are ahead. :)

I'm not completely sure what your point is though. I think it's either BS about Switch being a handheld with TV out rather than a hybrid, or BS about sales completely stopping after a certain point. I'm not sure.

Either way, it all comes down to BS.

Shhh , when you find a valid argument come talk to me. Im very precise to what im saying, bad english or not.

Do you even know how market works and what is marketing. People calling Nintendo fans sheep for a reason ( thats a trollish statement but you are )

@Archangel3371:

What took you so long to get a Switch?

@wiiboxstation: I was too busy buying other games and stuff.

Something something SHEEP something something CRYING something something 2020.

yeah yeah, im the one crying ! haha ! your english, you hater, you this you that .. flag, ban , you mother is X, your girlfriend is that. Haha ! Cry me a river all of you, all together all i care ! If you cant take a different opinion or some facts that is. BS BS BS BS .. lol.

You haven't used it. Trust me, hybrid is more fitting. It's not the same as what PSP could do at all.

As for sales just stopping one day, that has never happened in the history of gaming so I wouldn't put money on it happening to Switch. It's already so much weaker than PS4 and XB1 and gets so few ports that I don't see next gen impacting its success. On top of that, you're not even keeping a consistent narrative. Somehow, it's not a console, but when next gen releases it suddenly will be a console and will fail due to being too weak to compete? That doesn't make any sense.

And now you're suddenly mentioning marketing out of nowhere... I'm starting to doubt that even you know what you're talking about at this point.

The misconception from the armchair critics and analysts is that Wii U failed to sell because Nintendo systems were selling on gimmicks and their brands were losing power but this is dead wrong. Wii U failed because of the name. Branding confusion made it difficult and you can't market a system that doesn't want to be marketed. Everything else you bring up is an extension that happened due to poor sales so didn't overall effect it.

A lot sit back and claim Wii was the one that got lucky but when you consider that you also have to consider the Wii U was the unlucky one. Switch was never going to have the problems Wii U had because Wii U was impossible to communicate. In a parallel world where they named it something different or made it clear it was the Wii successor Gamecube is still their worst selling console.

The only chance you have of Switch sales falling off a cliff is if production ends. I can honestly see it performing as well as the Wii. There is obviously a large market of people who want to play "proper" games on handhelds and don't subscribe to Pachter's mobile future.

Back in the mid-80s, after the video game crash, analysts predicted that dedicated consoles are dead and general-purpose home computers are the future of gaming, before the NES came along and proved that consoles have a bright future.

We're now seeing a similar situation in the handheld space. Analysts are predicting that dedicated handhelds are dead and general-purpose mobiles are the future, and now the Switch has come along and proved that handhelds have a bright future.

@Jag85: Thats interesting. I started video games on the NES so I was unaware of that prediction. The handheld market (and console market for that matter) hasn't shrunk. It is the same. The miscalculation they make is that DS and Wii brought a lot of people which don't stick around like the dedicated handheld/console player does. That is the irony behind this smart phone preaching. The people playing those smart phone games don't pledge allegiance to anything and that includes smart phones. Smart phones can be dropped just as fast if somebody discovers the technique to draw them away.

Touch screens work for certain games and they actually can enhance gameplay depending on the implementation but as primary control method? Get out.

Guys, beleive what you want, i dont mind. This is my opinion and time will tell ( already proven but lets say its not ) if im right.

Ill ask you this and answer since you seem you dont understand ( we both know you do but anyways ).

Can my PC called console with unique features because has TV connectivity and can play games exactly like a console does or my mobile phone or any device that plays games on TV console like , yes or no ? We all know the answer is NO.

And for the record PC is far more console like than Switch because it needs only a single cable to have TV connectivity and not an external device that is NOT part of PC itself .

You see something is off ? You cant say yes to the question because its not right but its easier for you to call Switch a console because Nintendo said so. Switch is that shiny handheld, dock is not part of it, is an external device for SWITCH ( you get it now ) to be able to play on TV. Dock alone is just a dock. Its not Switch. Switch is that shiny handheld.

How on earth a platform that has TV connectivity = console, specially when this is happening with an outside device instead of Switch itself , is beyond my logic. And again if with your logic Switch is a console just because then using the same logic a PC is far more of a console than Switch !! It doesnt even need an external device to provide TV connectivity and play like a console.

So you're basically saying that hybrid devices don't exist. Also, I can call a cable an "outside device" by that logic, so consoles don't even exist. There was nothing stopping Nintendo from putting mini-HDMI on the Switch; the dock exists so it stays in one place. You're entitled you opinion, and I'm entitled to disagree.

You dont answer though my question, is my PC a hybrid or not ? Cable is needed for signal, nothing more nothing less. Dock is needed for Switch ( the handheld im talking about ) to be able to show its games on TV. Thats an external device, outside of Switch itself, not part of it, that you need in order Switch to play games on TV. Its the same ? Your paradigm is off. I hoped you would come with something far better than this. Your argument to my argument is ... the cable ? lol

I prefer "your english sucks" arguments, having more logic in them.

Are you trying to prove my opinion wrong or something? My answer to that is that your logic means that hybrid devices don't exist and can't possibly exist. If that's not enough for you, the reason the dock exists is for convenience. They didn't have to make it require a dock, but it makes the process easier. The fact that it's not "built in" doesn't matter to me since the dock ships with the device. You have everything you need to use Switch as console out of the box, so it counts as a hybrid to me. Something like a phone or a PSP requires buying cables and a controller separately.

As for your PC argument, yes, a PC can be used as a console or console replacement if you purchase the necessary hardware to make it one.

At the end of the day, you're just using different logic than I am. In your opinion, how would Switch need to work in order for it to count as a hybrid console/handheld, if at all possible? Also, if you think that Switch is solely a handheld and nothing more, why do you feel that PS5 will kill it?

I dont have to prove something, i asked you a question and i made clear why i think Switch is a handheld with the ability to play on TV, something that doesnt make it either a console nor hybrid. I gave examples why i think so. I even make you a question to make it even more clear, that of a PC with TV connectivity or a mobile.

Beleive what you want its fine.

Now you going away of the original argument. Ill keep it short. Theres a pattern with Nintendo consoles since N64. Whenever Nintendo systems are not in spotlight, sales slowing down and profits getting lower Nintendo traditionally pulling the trigger too fast. What this means ? That with PS5/X2 and the new era of games, when Switch will be only 3 years old, half thru its life cycle, will have to compete with MONSTERS, both hardware and software wise. People will go nuts, will focus on new consoles and new PC hardware and ofc next-gen games. How many will call Switch a console with unique features by then you think ?

You see all this console nonsense is a marketing BS. A great marketing BS that is working. But can backfire at the same time because you letting a handheld to have to compete head to head with consoles. And now things are ok because you got 2 old consoles out that are 4 years old, youve seen more or less what this generation of games is all about. No more hype behind them. When 9th generation of consoles get a release though and we gonna get the next-gen games that Switch will have to stand next to as a console ... oh boy... oh boy.

So what Nintendo does since N64 when things getting hard for them, despite sales ( take for example Wii ) .... They pulling the trigger way sooner than they should. And their systems start getting DUST and people moving on on other platforms while waiting for ages for 1-2 great games to play every now and then. And who will be hurt from this ? I know i wont. Sheep will. Sheep that now hating and flamming because they dont like my logic, opinions or whatever ... will be the ones that will get hurt in the end because they wont have games to play. Theyll be playing max 1-2-3 big blockbuster games per year like they did with every console since N64 after their 2-3rd year ( rarely 4th). Sometimes not even 1 the whole year ...

And look PS4, going into its 4th year and going as strong as ever with exclusive after exclusive, multi after multi. Look PS3 dammit ! A year away before PS4 release and TLOU gets a release for PS3. You wont see that from Nintendo if they lose momentum, since your console will have to be compared with consoles. Remember the pattern i told you about earlier. Its real.

In my opinion they should have promoted Switch as the one and only handheld. The best ever. The handheld that can play on TV. What really is in short and avoid this head to head comparison with consoles because its NOT a console !

Look what happened with DOOM. Its like my prediction became a reality in 2017. Everyone was hiding behind systems portability, even critics. .. they were calling Switch handheld/tablet all over the place ( google if you dont beleive ).

The only excuse i can find about this marketing BS is that they didnt want Switch to compete with 3DS and hurt 3DS sales and for Nintendo console fans a handheld wouldnt be appealing at all. Makes sense but still. Switch a console with unique features ? Gtfo ! And because of that kind of marketing and promotion right there ... oh boy ! Just wait and see and remember me when weird shit start happening. Mark my words

Better than that measly 1.2 million PSVRs sony sold... Guess we know which product the masses think is the real gimmick.

On the other hand... anyone who thinks the xbox one X won't outsell the PSVR are kidding themselves..

Your third paragraph is so wrong its unbelievable. Switch isn't after the core console demographic. Its a handheld after the handheld audience. It isn't directly competing with Sony and Microsoft anymore because Nintendo is quietly done with mainline consoles but don't want to admit it yet.

Translation: most people interested in Switch are not into PS5 and X2. So your theory falls apart. Its doing so well because its after the audience that is as loyal to Nintendo as the console audience is to Sony.

Switch isn't about going after one or the other. Primarily, it's about consolidating the two markets into one, which allows for a more consistent flow of first party games and more overall third party support. There has always been an overlap between the home and portable markets for Nintendo. They can now give the full home console experience and the full portable console experience at the same time with little compromise.

Yes, PS5 and X2 will further push graphics to the bleeding edge, and those who care about such things and getting the major western AAA's will obviously continue to support those platforms. But that's only part of the video game market, and it currently has two major players competing for domination in it, with one clearly winning.

By the time those systems come out, we'll probably have seen some sort of Switch price drop and/or tech upgrade. Perhaps by the time PS5/X2 are out, the newest version of the Switch will be able to play the PS4/X1 games it can't play now. We'll see.

Octopath Traveler

Fire Emblem

Ace Attorney Collection + new game

Yoshi

The games will come.

It's not like the other 2 consoles have much announced either, which... given their market maturity is kinda sad.