1. You're reason it will win is precisely the reason I believe it will lose. The PSP proves people don't want to play console experiences on handhelds, they want portable experiences. No matter how cool we think it is that tech has come this far, inevitably people will rather play Mass Effect 3 on their PS3 on a 50 inch 1920x1080 screen than a 5 inch screen.
2. You're assuming too much with the specs. The CPU can be clocked anywhere between 800Mhz and 2Ghz, and is quad core. Of course this is a handheld unit, so likely you will see the clock speed be closer to 800Mhz to 1.2Ghz IMO. The GPU is also multi-core, ranging anywhere between 200Mhz and 400Mhz. Once again, I'd expect something lower since this is a handheld, there is no need to over power it, and cause battery concerns, I'm guessing 200Mhz to 270Mhz. Depending on where Sony clocks these things you may not get the "ps3 like experience" they are claiming.
The 3DS is coming out at least 6 months before, and the console that wins will be the console who more people buy games for. Developers and Publishers are actually saying the 3DS's piracy protection is unbreakable, whereas NGP seems to be just PSN, but I don't know what they plan to do for the cart games.
Also, NGP games may be more expensive than 3DS titles. I wouldn't be surprised to see $49 to $59 for NGP, where as it seems $39 will be the highest for 3DS.
You know what will also hurt the NGP greatly? Since it has to have much higher dev costs, possibly near 360/PS3 levels, devs will take much fewer risks and port over PS3/360 concepts, shooters, etc. And like I've said before, people inevitably don't buy portables to play something they'd rather play on their HDTV.
I find it funny that in April and June the same hardware is likely going to power the iPad 2G, and iPhone 5G, and in September power the iPod Touch 5G as well. No one would begin to care about this "cutting edge" tech if it wasn't in the NGP.
I bet when we get the iPad's specs in April, that will end up being the NGP's specs.
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