Michael Pachter, I am gonna takeover over your job. Here are my predictions:
1) Kinect will sell more than Move during the first and 2nd years. Novelty and marketing will do wonders.
2) By the 2nd year, more Move-compatible games will be sold than Kinect-compatible games. That's becasue...
3)Move will have more games and more genres than Kinect. With move, not with Kinect, you can play hardcore/long games, precise games, 3D games, strategy games, and professional sports games).
4) Kinect will be the king of exercise and dancing games. But..
5) Kinect games will be limited to short-session, imprecise games. This means that Kinect will be a niche product. Your heard it here first: Kinect will be a niche product.
6) By the 3rd year, Kinect games will become stale. Just like Guitar Hero and Rock Band games, it becomes harder and harder to differentiate a game and its successor. You see, Kinect games requires lengthy, imprecice body motions for all games. This limits gameplay. Kinect is a game controller that is fundamentally limiting to gameplay, making innovation very difficult .So during the 1st generation of Kinect games, novelty and innovation can be appreciated, but it becomes that much harder to innovate during the 2nd generation, and harder still for the 3rd generation.
7)Just as gamers spend less and less time playing Wii games, they will also spend less and less time playing Kinect games.
8) Move will be the hardcore gamer's motion control of choice. By far. Kinect never has a chance.
9) By the 3rd year, Move hardware will be sold more than Kinect hardware. This is due to Kinect becoming stale and the novelty being dead.
10)Attempts to use both the standard controller and Kinect at the same time will be disappointing. This is because Xbox 360 is already weaker than the PS3. Using the 360 processor for Kinect only takes processing power from graphcis, AI, physics, etc. Therefore, 3rd party developers will be reluctant, just as they are reluctant to use six-axis controls for the PS3, to incorporate Kinect with hardcore games.
11)Michael Pachter will be fired and Dragonboot will replace him.
dragonboot
i think it's worth noting that the only motion control application that doesn't have a short session time are shooters thus far, which the wiimote does well with already
but you're right in that it'll be more of a niche device, which is part of the reason it appeals to my relatives enough for me to pre-order it
personally i don't understand why they don't just make controllers next gen with a trackball on them, i mean trackballs are just as fast and accurate as a mouse, they take some getting used to but they're the only thing like a mouse you can add to a gamepad
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