This was originally posted in the union "Retro Vault".
I've seen a lot of debate lately about consoles reverting to carts or continuing with discs, and I'm going to state my opinions on this topic. Don't worry; there'll be enough retro references to keep it on topic.
Personally, I believe that the return to carts is inevitable. We went from carts to disks because carts couldn't hold much data. This was because of a basic design flaw. Carts used ROM chips to store data, usually with the game on one chip, and the music on another. That is why the NES carts are so big. All of those circuits connect both ROM chips and interface them so that the game and music can be played all at once. I'm not certain, but I believe this is the same for all, if not most carts. I took apart a GBC cart, and it was basically the same with a few location modifications.
Then, we went from discs to DVD's. Sure they are almost the same, but there is a massive difference. A regular CD can only hold anywhere from 650–870 MB of data, whilea common DVD can hold anywhere from 4.707 GB to 8.548 GB depending if it is single layer, double layer, +R, -R, or whatever. This is a significant improvement, and is what we are using with the Xbox 360. Early games didn't have to worry much about this limitation, as most were limited more so by the processor limitations of older computers and consoles.The Sega CD is a prime example of this. The processing capabilities of the console were the prime-limiting factor, and not the CD the game was stored on. The PlayStation demonstrates this effectively as it uses the same storage medium, but with vastly improved graphics and gaming capabilities.
Next comes Blu-ray. A typical Blu-ray can hold 25 GB per single layer, and 50 GB per duallayered disk. This is quite the improvement, as anyone can see. In fact, there are all sorts of debate as to how many discs the 360 version of FF XIII will comprise, as it will have to be on DVD, and not Blu-ray like the PS3 version.
All of this, and finally I get to the point. While Blu-ray can hold up to 50 GB of data, how long do you think that will be good enough? In a single generation, 700 MB (Typical CD) was taken over by 4.5 to 8 GB of storage space (Typical DVD). Then, games became so complex that one DVD wasn't enough to hold them. There are even some games that need three! Three DVD's at typical single layer runs 13.5 GB, while typical double layer runs 25.5 GB! That's one single layer Blu-ray already. If we have games on DVD that are big enough to require one Blu-ray already, running on a system that utilizes a tri-core cpu running at 3.2 GHz each, I think we'll out pace Blu-ray very quickly.
Today, right now, if Micro Center was open, I can go buy myself a 64 GB USB flash drive for $169.99, or a 32 GB USB flash drive for $59.99. That's just USB, I can buy a 16 GB micro SD card for $59.99. The micro SD is a trifle smaller than a penny, and slimmer than one to boot.
Sure those prices are outrageous, but think about this. I've seen estimates that put the next generation of consoles at 5 years from now. The 360 was using a tri-core in 2005, and now were up to the quad core I7. In five years, processors will blow you away, and those prices that I quoted on flash memory will have hit rock bottom. I can get a 250 GB 2.5 in solid state HDD for $699.99. That's 250 GB on a laptop drive. Just a few months ago they were in the thousands of dollars range. If I can get 16 GB on a card the size of a penny today, 5 years from now I'll be buying micro SD cards that put today's HDD's to shame. In just a few years we have gone from 32 GB SSD's to 250 GB SSD's and 32 GB SSD's were considered cutting edge! If that's what they can do in just a couple of years, imagine what they'll do in 5 more.
I believe that next generation will see the return of carts in the form of flash memory, or at the very latest, the 9th generation will for sure. Disks are getting old, and they also suffer from the problem of scratching. If they used flash, we wouldn't have to deal with scratches. Look at the Nintendo DS. It uses carts, and they are pretty reliable. The DS came out in 2004, and it was using carts, why not consoles?
I have also seen people cite the problem with saved game data on early carts. The early carts used volatile memory that needed a battery to make stable. One of the problems with current generation consoles is that all of your game data is saved on a HDD and you can't play your game on any other system than yours. This especially sucks if your HDD takes a puke. (That's a technical term, in case you were wondering) Flash memory however is non-volatile. That is a critical component of flash memory. You need to be able to take it with you. Games on flash memory would then be able to store save game data on the cart, and you could play it on any console, not just yours.You can, however, get a memory card for it. My idea seems a lot better than memory cards ever did.
In conclusion, I believe that flash memory, or some close derivative, will replace disc based games, as well as disc based media for that matter, in the near future. These are my thoughts, what are yours?
Addendum 1: It was theorized that games would never need more than two double-sided Blu-ray disks. This is what I have to say.
While I can't find info on earlier generation games, a standard CD can hold up to 870 MB of data, a standard DVD can hold up to 4.7 GB of data. If you don't allow for games utilizing double layer, multiple disks, or any other non-standard configuration, that is a size increase of approximately 5.4 times. That means that a single disk x-box 360 game can be a max of 5.4 times as big as a single disk PlayStation disk can be. Using such a formula, we can see that a single disk PlayStation 3 game can be a max of 5.32 times as big as a single disk 360 game. One of the biggest things that take up space on a game is the graphics. Resolution has gone from 8-bit, to Blu-ray quality. If you think that they are going to stop with Blu-ray quality graphics, you are very naive. The graphic resolution war has only just begun. Moore's law, which states that the number of transistors on a single die (cpu) roughly doubles every two years, can also be applied to screen resolution in a slightly different manner. Mr. Moore has said that miniaturization of transistors would eventually reach the limits of atomic levels, and I believe that the same is true for pixel resolution. Game companies, and everybody else for that matter, will definitely take advantage of this for the extra graphical capabilities, and this will drive the next storage medium for games to reach 125 GB if my calculation of 5 times increase in available storage space holds out. That's 2 and a half standard Blu-rays. When games reach that size, even history tells us that we are due for a new storage medium; as few, if any, games utilize more than three of any type of disk.
Addendum 2:
One other reason I could see this happening soon is that Microsoft will probably not want to pay Sony royalties on a Blu-ray player in the 360, and will no doubt try to figure out a new storage medium. All of the things that I have stated show that flash memory would be the next logical step for Microsoft. I could definitely see their next system utilizing flash memory via a USB port, or a modified USB port. Using USB would probably be more susceptible to piracy, but it doesn't seem to be an issue now, and there are multiple USB ports on the 360.
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