Okay, so I wrote an earlier blog about why the PS3 will win, but after reading a thread by KeyWii in which he listed 10 reasons why PS3 will win (which I thought was pretty good), I decided to write a rebuttal. After all, every good argument needs a counter-argument.

So while these may not be my personal opinions, they are some counters I thought up on the spot.

Here goes....11 reasons why the 360 will win.

1. Games...lots of 'em

2. Price

Let's face it: price matters. And in this very competitive environment, consumers pay attention to price. With the PS3 priced at $600, and the 20 gig version being dropped, the price of the PS3 effectively shuts out a large portion of consumers who simply can't afford it. Furthermore, the price of the PS3 places it as a "Mercedes" type of product, an analogy that Sony CEO Howard Stringer himself used. That's not a good perception in the eyes of the average consumer, who prefers value over pompousness.

3. First out the Gate

The fact that the 360 was first out the gate is significant. Momentum is very important in this race, and the 360 had the starting momentum and the ability to last the race. The Wii currently has more momentum, but will its technology still be compelling 3 or 4 years down the line? The PS3 at the present time has virtually no momentum, and there is no guarantee that future titles in its repertoire will propel it past the 360.

4. Comparative Advantage

I employ this term not in its traditional sense--namely, when it is used to describe desparities in production efficiency. What I mean by "comparative advantage" is that when a consumer evaluates the 360 and the PS3 side by side, they see that they get the same value for a cheaper price with the 360. When Sony showed off the E3 CG trailers, and then revealed what their games really looked like, everyone saw that the PS3 and 360's graphical capabilities were approximately the same. When you buy a 360, you're basically getting games that look just as good or better for a lower price.

5. Choice

The 360 offers options in its SKU's. The PS3 has one model which costs a prohibitive price. The 360 offers the core, the premium, and now the Elite. This allows it to branch out and touch every income category of the market, which in turn means more sales for the console to a broader audience.

6. Blu-ray?

Sony defenders argue that blu-ray will propel Playstation 3 sales when it wins over HD-DVD. While blu-ray does have a good likelihood of winning, who's to say that the market is even ready for blu-ray? Most folks won't want to replace their entire DVD collection for a marginal increase in fidelity--only the hardcore technology fans are likely to do so.

As for the argument that blu-ray is needed, here's a thought: if the massive world of Oblivion won't fill a DVD9, why is blu-ray needed? It seems that Sony has stepped too far into the future for its own good. Blu-ray doesn't help the PS3--it cripples it, because blu-ray increases the production cost of the console and makes it hard for Sony to price it cheaper. Merrill Lynch estimates that Sony loses $200-$300 per console, no doubt in part because of blu-ray.

Moreover, people who want a game system but not an expensive movie player will see more value in the 360 than the PS3.

7. Secure Exclusives

The PS3's top killer app titles--i.e. MGS4, Final Fantasy XIII--are third-party. That means they always have the potential of being stolen away. Look at GTA IV and DMC4...those were two franchises that two years back, no one would have imagined launching simultaneously on the 360. The 360's killer titles, on the other hand--i.e. Halo 3, Gears of War 2, and Mass Effect--are first or second party titles that could never be stolen. When you're considering a console purchase, you know for sure that the only system you're going to be able to play those games on--ever--is the Xbox 360.

?

8. Levelling the Playing Field

Last generation, a lot of publishers were hesitant to jump on the Xbox bandwagon, as the platform was still untested. This time around, there is no question on the mind of any publisher that Microsoft has the intention and wherewithal to succeed. That's why you're seeing so many games going multiplat. Japanese developers are climbing aboard too. The support of gamemakers like Capcom and Mistwalker are sure to increase the diversity of the 360's portfolio vis-a-vis the PS3's.

The argument that Xbox 360 only offers shooters, and therefore won't appeal to people looking for a diverse library is ridiculous. Look at the list above--it is no less diverse than the one in the "10 Reasons" PS3 thread. Microsoft has also done a better job of securing third-party exclusives--titles like Bioshock and Splinter Cell 5 prove the point.

9. Master Chief

Sure, Sony's got Kratos, but how many units does Kratos move? God of War only sold 2.5 million, and its sequel has just passed 1 million, but Halo 1 and 2 combined have sold a whopping 14.3 million. Looks like the energy sword is greater than the Blades of Athena.

10. Xbox Live

Let's be frank: Xbox Live is a tried and true service. Playstation Network and Home? Not so much. Let's also not forget that Sony tends to over-promise and under-deliver. Setting up a dependable, consistent online service is no small task, and there is good reason to doubt that Sony will surpass Microsoft in the online sector.

11. Multiplats are better looking, score higher, and have better framerates on the 360

The majority of multiplat games have scored higher, looked better, and run smoother on the 360 than the PS3. Gamespot did a comparison of multiplats awhile back, and here was their conclusion:

"The Xbox 360 had better graphics in almost all the games we examined...the Xbox 360 games generally offered better framerates too."

Check out the comparisons for yourself: http://www.gamespot.com/features/6162742/p-8.html

In conclusion, the Xbox 360 is just as good of a deal as the PS3, without the mandatory feature of an expensive movie player, and all at a lower price for the consumer who knows what's most important--games.

I had so much anticipation for this game. GTA III and Vice City were two of my favorite games last gen. I had a bunch of ideas swimming around in my head about what cool locations IV might take place in to really blow the doors off the next-gen sandbox experience. Could it be Colombia, where you could be a drug lord? Imagine driving around in your jeep on crazy drug runs, or owning a mansion like Sosa's in Scarface. Or maybe Tokyo, where you could be a badass Yakuza boss?

When I saw the trailer today, I felt all that excitement and anticipation deflate like a balloon. Liberty City (or New York, whichever you prefer)? I've already played two games on the PS2 there (GTA III and LCS). The last place I would have guessed is a return to Liberty City. I was expecting Rockstar to take some creative and bold steps with respect to the setting, and here they just remodel Liberty City. :| Going back to Liberty City for a third time is not an exciting offer.

Speaking of remodeling....the graphics are utterly unimpressive. The buildings, cars, and pedestrians literally look like high-res models of GTA III. :? Only impressive graphical touch was the lighting. No joke, The Getaway PS3 unveiling impressed me more from a visual standpoint than GTA IV.

The only potentially bright spot from the trailer is the main character--he looks (and sounds) like he might be an interesting personality. But I gotta say--dude's nose is huge! :P

My apologizes if I've sounded like a party-pooper for those of you excited about the game, but IV better have some mind-blowing, innovative new gameplay if it's going to impress me. Including other cities would help too. But for a first showing, Rockstar really disappointed in my eyes.

**Update** Thanks for all the responses, guys.

It seems from this little experiment that there's not quite enough interest to kick-start a really successful union, but I found another union called Church and State with already 700+ members that focuses on religion and politics.

So rather than start a new union, I'm going to begin to post there and recommend it to everyone else. Hope that's cool with everybody :)

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I've talked politics with a lot of people in the past, but it's usually been off-topic on a board not designed for those kinds of conversations.

I think there are a lot of good opinions and ideas out there, if there was just a good place to talk about them.

Some sample topics might be terrorism, elections, the Iraq War, etc.

Also, we could discuss daily news stories, as well as any political humor from TV programs like the Daily Show, etc.

So would anyone be interested?

I'm just writing this blog to gauge interest.

So I finally got around to finishing Jade Empire now that Spring Break is here.

The game was fun, but I felt it had so much unexplored potential. In the next game, they should really make the combat much deeper. Someone has yet to make a Bioware-caliber rpg with the depth of a combat system like Ninja Gaiden. Imagine how much that would own! Maybe Team Ninja and Bioware should merge ;)

I also posted my FFXII review, since I finished it awhile ago. The production values on that game are just phenomenal. But like Jade, I finished the game feeling hungry (not really hungry, steak can solve that problem). But I felt that if the combat system was tweaked, the characters were better developed, and the story was more engaging, it could have been so much more. Anyways, feel free to read my review for details if you're free and feel like it.

Also, it's been ages since I've posted a blog question, so here it is.

Fuzzy's blog question #3:

What game(s) are you playing over Spring Break?

Just a quick note: I'll be submerged until Wednesday because a rough draft of my thesis is due Tuesday.

Logging off....see y'all then :)

Today marks my third year as a GS member. It's kinda surprising, because I feel like I signed up not too long ago.

I've met a lot of cool people, gotten into a lot of debates, had a lot of laughs.

Cheers all, and thanks for good times :)

lookin' forward to what the future of gaming will hold.

Posted this in System Wars as well, but thought I'd post it here too 1) because many people don't frequent SW, and 2) to keep a record of my thoughts and see if they play out as predicted.

The prediction: Playstation 3 will win, followed by Xbox 360, followed by Nintendo Wii.

It may be surprising to some of you that I would make a prediction like this, especially with the onslaught of bad news and negative media toward the PS3. But bear with me and allow me to explain my reasoning. The following post is a submission of my predictions and analyses, and is by no means an assertion of infallibility.

(Please note that some of the things I will say about certain consoles will be straight-forward and seemingly harsh. I do not intend to "bash" any console--just to present the situation as I see it.)

Of the three consoles, the Playstation 3 will have the slowest starting period, due to its high price and lack of compelling software. However, it also has the greatest potential to win this generation.

The first reason is that Blu-ray will win the format war. The Playstation 3's fate is in large part tied to Blu-ray. And Blu-ray is poised to win. "At this time, only one studio--Universal--hasn't committed to the Blu-ray format, while HD-DVD has yet to attract Fox, Disney, MGM, Sony, and Lionsgate" (EGM, Feb. 2007). With such overwhelming support, Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities predicts a landslide victory for the Sony-led format.

When Blu-ray wins by the end of 2007/ early 2008, sales of software will drive sales of the Playstation 3, which will in turn drive sales of the software (already evident by the 700% increase in Blu-ray software sales since the launch of the PS3). Blu-ray software and Playstation 3 hardware exist in a symbiotic relationship that will prove highly profitable for both.

Microsoft will be unable to adopt the format, because development and ownership of the format is spearheaded by Sony, who sits on the Blu-ray Association Board of Directors. For future versions of the Xbox 360 to contain Blu-ray, Microsoft would have to seek Sony's permission--and there is strong economic disincentive for Sony to grant it.

The second reason for Playstation 3's future success is that its portfolio will eventually accumulate and diversify. It will take advantage of the support of Japanese developers, and build up its first-party lineup. Sony will continue to purchase studios and invest in exclusive games. Microsoft will take the same strategy, and the end result will be that both consoles will have highly compelling game lineups, with Microsoft depending more on Western games and Sony depending on a mix of Western and Japanese games.

Furthermore, Sony will eventually lower the price of the console to a range suitable for mass market adoption, though it will remain at least $100 more expensive than the 360 over the course of its lifetime. The Blu-ray drive in the PS3 will more than justify the price difference in the eyes of consumers as the format becomes the de facto standard.

Initially, the Wii will surpass both the 360 and the PS3 in sales, but the fast rate of adoption will decrease significantly over the course of several years. The excitement generated by the innovation of the Wii controller will wear off, and the diminishing returns in graphical performance caused by its hardware limitations will enhance its visual disparity vis-a-vis the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 over time. Moreover, third-party support will not surpass that of the Gamecube, due to the difficulty of porting games from the higher-horsepower consoles and developing for the simplified control mechanisms of the Wiimote. However, first-party support for the console will remain strong, and serve as the primary buttress for the Wii after its initial sales surge.

Microsoft will gain the most of all three companies in relation to its last generation performance. The Xbox 360 will prove a formidable opponent for the PS3 as Microsoft continues to purchase studios, steal more exclusives from Sony, and invest in strong new IP's as well as sequels to existing ones. However, Microsoft will remain unable to capture market share in Japan, and as a result, the full support of Japanese developers. It will, however, win in North America, though it will lose to Sony by a marginal percentage in Europe.

In the end, the victor of this console war will be much less pronounced as that of the previous generation. Instead of ~60% Sony, 20% MS, and 20% Nintendo, the market distribution in the final measurement will much more resemble an even distribution of shares, though specific percentages at this stage would be shots in the dark.

Thus, while Sony will win this generation by a marginal amount, it will have lost the most out of the three companies in relation to their performances last gen.

That's my prediction. Feel free to give me feedback and criticisms, or express your own predictions.

:D

Just noticed that I hit the 10,000 posts mark on GS.

Looks like I finally gradumacated from noobdom into l33thood 8)

Party time......shake it like a salt shaker.

My biggest project this year is to compose a thesis before May 16. It's a requirement for everyone in the political science honors program at the University of Washington.

The puzzle I chose is: "why did the United States invade Iraq in 2003?" It's a hot topic, and something everyone has an opinion on, but my goal is to analyze (and better understand) it in the framework of international relations theory.

My hunch is that traditional international relations theories will not be sufficient to explain this invasion. I think the Iraq War is a unique case in world politics, because it was waged by the first benign international hegemon in history. Unique cases require unique theoretical perspectives, and the traditional "structural realist" explanations for why states go to war carry necessary, but not sufficient explanatory power.

My intuition is that somewhere in the equation is the role of particular assumptions about the reliability of deterrence and the psychological affects that September 11th had on President Bush and his administration.

My project is to organize this intuition into some sort of cohesive thesis. I've got probably 30 books laying on my couch that I'm about to dive into. Sadly, this means less time for games and probably no time to work again, which I really wanted to start this quarter, because I'd like some money for games and hangin' out with friends.

This blog has had almost nothing to do with games, so if you bothered to read through this babble, I appreciate it.

I'm just writing my thoughts down as psychological preparation for what's to come in the next couple months. Wish me luck :)

I've seen a couple editors come and go in my short time here on Gamespot. But Greg’s departure is quite unlike any other. Just like most of my fellow gamespotters, there have been plenty of times when I’ve disagreed with one of his reviews, or criticized him for being unfair, etc, etc. But truth be told, he was the rock of gamespot.

I always enjoyed watching his video reviews and reading his work, because no matter how I differed with him, he always presented his opinion with an eloquence and intelligence that remains simply unsurpassed by any journalist in any gaming publication that I know of. And most of all, he had an unmistakable passion for gaming. Greg will be dearly missed, and I wish him the best of luck in his game development adventures.Gamespot will never be the same again, but I look forward to owning a game with “Greg Kasavin” in the credits :)

:D