Something that has been probably been on the backburner in terms of news, given Ukraine and the ongoing protests in Iran, has been the question of Iran's nuclear program.
Since Trump unilaterally terminated US participation in 2018, and especially after it became clear that the EU et al couldn't provide a sanctions workaround, Iran has been steadily disengaging from the deal, enriching more uranium to be a higher level than ever before, locking out access for IAEA inspectors, etc.
Despite Biden campaigning on re-entering the deal, it seems the window for that has closed, what with the new hardline president, Iran's military support for the Russian side in Ukraine, and the aforementioned protests that are continuing apace.
None of this however seems to be slowing down Iran's progress on its program. And although no one can credibly claim that Iran already has nukes or has definitively decided to build them, it is in pole position to do so should it choose.
Which leaves the problem as follows: what do we do if they go for the breakout? So far, sanctions across multiple administrations have hardly slowed it down, and if the experiences in places like North Korea hold any lessons, they most certainly will not stop them. The only other alternatives are to either semi tolerate Iran having them (a la North Korea), or strike their facilities and capabilities (which are hardly guaranteed to succeed anyway).
But who would strike Iran if it comes to that? Israel, possibly with US support? What if there is massive retaliation by Iran, something that no one is able to contain? Iran has already proven to have the ability to strike far and wide across the region when it chooses, and any direct strike on their nation, especially if it is by Israel, would almost certainly invoke such a response. And what if the strikes are ultimately unsuccessful, either through failing to completely destroy their program, or leaving them with enough to work with that they could rebuild? Do we go for multiple strikes, continuously, while risking constant Iranian retaliation? Remember, Iranian influence and proxies cut a long continuous "crescent" throughout the Middle East, stretching from Iran into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, etc. It has some of the largest oil producers well within its striking distance, and it has the ability to blockade or seriously bottleneck the crucial Strait of Hormuz should it choose to do so. And if so, we could be looking at not just human or material losses, but also brutal economic repercussions with massive oil spikes, just as the economic picture remains precarious at best, and we are already struggling to fill the void left by less Russian oil.
Still ready? Does anyone see a less violent way forward?
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