[QUOTE="fidosim"]I think the relation between the Iraq War and the Arab Spring is ambiguous to say the least. People had been predicting movements like the Arab Spring long before the Iraq War by the mere fact that the Arab world has such a huge population of unemployed young people who resent the old autocrats. So something resembling the Arab Spring likely would have happened regardless of what went on in Iraq. However, I doubt a revolution would have successfully toppled Saddam Hussein. He had plenty of experience putting down uprisings. What has been going on in Syria is a good simulacrum of what would have happened in Iraq, since Syria is also under centralized Ba'athist rule. It's also worth noting that it's hard to say where exactly the Arab Spring is going to take the countries it has affected. fidosim
I suppose my main thesis would have been better put as: "Would it have been better to shelf a unilateral invasion, and instead draw up contingencies for an air war (a la Libya) should Iraqis ever rise up again"? I'm just trying to come to terms with how much of an opportunity cost the Iraq War has likely been.
I don't think that would have been a better alternative. We did in fact spend most of the 1990s in a sort of limited air war with Iraq. We responded to Saddam's gas attacks on the Kurds in northern Iraq with a series of airstrikes in 1998, for example. I don't think limited action would have gotten rid of Saddam by itself, for one. Plus, even if Saddam were overthrown by a rebellion on the ground, there is little to suggest that the result would have been democratization. There is much more to suggest more warfare and another tyrannical regime. Saddam Hussein was himself part of a Sunni minority that ruled Iraq with an iron fist, keeping the majority of Iraqis in line through force and the threat of force. If Saddam were overthrown, it is more likely that another strongman would have come to power much the way Saddam himself did. By being as heavy-handed as we were in changing Iraq's government, we at least created federal institutions through which ethnic and religious tensions could be settled through a democratic process rather than through civil war and oppression. That's not to say that Iraq has no chance of sliding back into tyranny, but we could not have set Iraq on a different trajectory had we not actually invaded and done the job ourselves.
I suppose Gaddafi had the bad luck of no organized political party and no sectarian tensions to play with (and no sect to stack in his favor). Not that Libya is in no danger of dire straits.
[QUOTE="kuraimen"] This, the wars also complicated things even further and created a new generation of resentment against the west in the middle east that will undoubtedly come back to bite them in the ass.kuraimen
Which "wars" do you refer to? Iraq?
And Afghanistan
I doubt the latter would have been as bad without the former. But then again, nation building in general is a crapshoot and Afghanistan has never had any tradition of what the U.S. wanted.
I think the relation between the Iraq War and the Arab Spring is ambiguous to say the least. People had been predicting movements like the Arab Spring long before the Iraq War by the mere fact that the Arab world has such a huge population of unemployed young people who resent the old autocrats. So something resembling the Arab Spring likely would have happened regardless of what went on in Iraq. However, I doubt a revolution would have successfully toppled Saddam Hussein. He had plenty of experience putting down uprisings. What has been going on in Syria is a good simulacrum of what would have happened in Iraq, since Syria is also under centralized Ba'athist rule. It's also worth noting that it's hard to say where exactly the Arab Spring is going to take the countries it has affected. fidosim
I suppose my main thesis would have been better put as: "Would it have been better to shelf a unilateral invasion, and instead draw up contingencies for an air war (a la Libya) should Iraqis ever rise up again"? I'm just trying to come to terms with how much of an opportunity cost the Iraq War has likely been.
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