1. Blu-ray is not as big as you might think. Sure, DVD was killer for the PS2. Now, however, Blu-ray is not changing the standard format in which most people watch movies. Streaming and downloading is the future in getting movies and tv shows. Now, many people have cable with some type of demand service. Grocery stores have cheap movie rentals. Netflix has online service. Blu-ray is not going to beat DVD. The internets will beat DVD.
2. All the systems can drop prices and bundle games. 360 odst/forza 3 bundle looks more attractive than a simple PS3 slim right now. Walmart has the Wii and wii sports resort/WM+ for $200. Sony should at least bundle a game.
3. I'll give you this. Sony is killing it with some nice exclusives. This will help them against MS, but probably not as much against Nintendo. Nintendo has a good amount of exclusives as well.
4. I have to disagree. XBox live is so good, it feels like a necessity. $50 a year is nothing for the hours of online fun you can have for a year. I hear PSN might be adding some optional pay services soon anyway. The service MS provides is very good and very reasonably priced (at this time.)
5. Examine the entire history of console gaming. When has a console peripheral ever caused a major swing in sales? Sega CD? 32X? Rumble pak? N64 memory expansion? The companies pretty much have to live and die by what they release on day 1. These consoles are over halfway through their life cycle.
6. I have no clue what company will release a console next or what the next consoles will look like. Nintendo threw a major monkey wrench into this thing with the Wii. A new, unpredictable gamer has emerged. Next gen will probably be decided by who most appeals to Women, Elderly, and extreme casuals.
7. Wii has been "obsolete" from a technological standpoint from day 1. Problem is, gameplay and art design trump pretty graphics 10 times out of 10. Also, 360 and PS3 are limited by the consumer's display. Not everyone has an HDTV. I doubt many of these new, super-casual gamers has HDTV.
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