usualy there is some sort of warning from fairly modern tv's, especialy large ones, built into the tv which should let you know if the bulb needs replacing. this is the case with my tv anyway. from what you say it dose seem like an overheating problem to me though im no expert myself. if you still got the manual have a look and see how often the bulb should be replaced and if there should be a warning light hope this is helpfull
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