Nice long read.
There are way too many factors over this. For example there are series whose gameplay mechanics tend to age better than others, some might go with the same core gameplay while adding enough new features and still be awesome. On the other hand others, even if they are good, might not age as good and sequels feel stale.
You also got the factor of a game as a product of it's own and as a franchise. RE 4 which is a good example. Even if that game might not feel like it kept much of what the series stood for, it's nonetheless a great game on it's own. Then you have a series evolving into something new.
You mention Square's spinoffs situation. I think that fanbase comes into place now, Square is actually getting some fire for making all those spinnoff but as you said they still sell due to the huge fan group that feels attached to these games.
Not sure what you imply by Bungie tried a different approach.
So either way it's been take something, leave the other option behind when it comes to this.
I think the ideal way that publisher/devs. should work that out is taking long standing franchises and split them in two. One side that tries to ''revolutionize'' them and the other that keeps a similar approach to the roots. Even though I'm not sure how viable for them that would be.
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