There really can't be any argument against the fact that more people would have died in an invasion than in the bombings. The extent of the extra death can be disputed, but it's impossible to imagine that fewer casualties would be inflicted. This however, is only IF the Japanese really did 'fight to the death.' But that's the point of contention for me. I think Japan was much closer to breaking than people believe. We hear all this propaganda about fierce warriors, samurai culture, kamikaze runs, and so forth, and we are led to believe that every Japanese citizen was willing to go to such extremes to win the war. But given their situation - food shortages, constant bombings, suffering and death... I think it's much more rational to assume that the majority of the Japanese population was, by that time, totally disillusioned with the war. So I think that it is a mistaken assumption that the Japanese civilians would actually fight to the death, and as such, I find it difficult to accept casualty figures that are derived with that basic assumption in mind.
I have to disagree. While it's definitely possible that the Japanese people were willing to not fight, there's no indication either way than the sources you already mentioned and seem to discredit. It's foolish to assume anything when it comes to a situation of this magnitude. Â
There is some evidence in the primary documents to back up this claim. The Emperor had been warned by Prince Fumimaro Konoe as early as February 1945 that an internal revolution posed as much threat to the Imperial House as defeat by the Allies if the war continued. And it's no small wonder that the fortifications that were supposed to be completed by June of that year were STILL not completed by the time the surrender was initiated by the Emperor, and that there were no new divisions manning those positions, frothing at the mouth to kill Americans. The fact of the matter is that the Japanese civilians were humans with no control over what was happening to them. They prepared for invasion because they were led to believe that they would be slaughtered ruthlessly if they did not - and in an invasion, it can not be doubted that they'd quickly realize this was not the case. They had insufficient arms and food. They had no morale. Most of them weren't soldiers to begin with. I simply can not believe that people in such circumstances would be capable of fighting to the death. And if they were... atomic bombs would be small issue to the matter. It's just more people dead who would have died some other way, after all.
While there were definitely conspiracies abrew to oust the emperor it wasn't because of his wanting to continue the war. If anything it was the contrary. It's the heads of the Japanese military, that really ran the country, who were suspicious of the emperor and the persuasion he had with the Japanese people. There were even attempts at coups the night of the surrender to stop the surrender.
We also know that Japan, for months, had been considering surrender. The point of contention was the unconditional surrender demanded by the Allies. I find this ironic, because for all the demands of unconditional surrender - and the dropping of the bombs to force it - the actual surrender was not unconditional. And the chief point of contention that led to the dismissal of the Potsdam proposal was that the Emperor be allowed to retain his position, even if only as a figurehead. That's why the continuation of the war seemed like such a waste to me. It could have been over months before it was if the Allies had been willing to compromise just a bit... as they did in the end. So if you're talking about saving lives, it was the blunt refusal to negotiate that was the really bad call. The bombs, and everything that happened after the Japanese made their initial requests for a mediated peace, were the direct result of that call.
The Potsdam Declaration actually made no specific demands about the emperor. Rather it declared that all those who decieved and misled the Japanese people would be punished. It's the Japanese who misinterpreted (judging by the actual post-war settlement) that as the forced abdication of the emperor.
I still maintain that the bombs did not force the surrender. They just brought a conclusion to a foregone conclusion. But the situation was desperately hopeless for the Japanese long before that, and that's why I don't think the bombs should have been dropped, or that they were necessary to achieve surrender. We're never going to know the answer to this, but I feel that in light of the growing discontent and disillusionment with the war even within parts of the Japanese government, that a surrender would have occurred before long before the end of 1945, with or without the bombs. And it CERTAINLY would have occurred if the Allies had been willing to negotiate earlier that year.
To say that the Japanese were no longer willing to fight it to suggest a paramount shift in the Japanese zeitgeist. All throughout the war the Japanese were influenced by the military propaganda. And up until the very surrender young Japanese were eagerly going off to fight a losing war. In my opinion this more or less indicates that the Japanese were still willing to fight in the case of a land-invasion.
pianist
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