I've said this before and I'll say it again, superior tech does not guarantee victory for any handheld that competes with Nintendo. The Atari Lynx, Turboexpress, Sega Game Gear, Sega Nomad, Neo Geo Pocket, Game. Com, Wonderswan, Gizmondo, Ngage, and the PSP were all handhelds that boasted superior hardware, more features, and tried to appeal to a "mature" market when compared to Nintendo handhelds of their time.
Only two of those managed to gain some form of success. The Sega Game Gear and PSP managed to get some share of the market, but their numbers where still outclassed by Nintendo's sales.
These kinds of posts and articles were seen back in 2005 with the PSP and DS. People kept claiming the PSP would outsell the DS and dethrone Nintendo as the leader of the handheld market. Flash forward to 2011 and none of that has come to pass. The DS is still the dominant handheld and the PSP while having sold impressive numbers, is largely dead outside Japan.
Now, I have to ask. What is suddenly different about the Vita that guarantees its success against the 3DS? From the looks of it, history is repeating itself. Sony is banking on a superior handheld that blows Nintendo's offering out of the water tech wise and tries to justify the higher price by offering more features. Nintendo on the other hand is banking on their first-party games, cheaper price, and a unique feature(3D) to sell the 3DS.
Outside of more powerful systems on both end, what has changed?
I should make one thing abundantly clear before I continue. The 3DS' future is not assured at this point. Its still a young system and many things can happen to hurt its chances. But on the same token, its way to early to declare the Vita the winner when it has not even launched yet.
The most common argument that I see about the Vita is that its launch library is very good and far superior to what the 3DS offered. While that is impressive on paper, people need to keep in mind that games can be delayed, canceled, or miss the launch window due to other factors. Banking on launch titles is great for hype, but let's not make this a key advantage until the system actually launches.
And there is one other thing people seem to forget. Even if the launch lineup is impressive, that advantage will be meaningless if the Vita suffers from a game drought in the months that follow. This was something that plagued the PSP, and its still unclear if the Vita can avoid the same fate.
Fact is, this generation's handheld war was has not even started yet. The 3DS has not even been store shelves for a year and the Vita has not even launched yet. While the Vita is impressive on paper, its not on store shelves yet. There is little point in declaring it destined to outsell the 3DS if it has not found its way to consumers.
On one hand, it could outsell the 3DS and become the best selling handheld of all time. On the other hand, it could be a massive flop that leads Sony to shut down their gaming division. Truth is, the crystal ball is far too hazy to make any prediction that will be remotely accurate. How many people predicted Nintendo would slash the 3DS' price so quickly?
Maybe everyone should take a step back and wait for things to unfold.
Log in to comment