New NPD leak further puts into question VGC validity

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GulliversTravel

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#1 GulliversTravel
Member since 2009 • 3110 Posts

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=384933&page=48

A number of GAF members have spilled the beans, lets compare before they get adjusted.

Demons Souls

VGC - 440k

NPD - 230k

Forza 3

VGC - 1.01 million

NPD - 450k

Valkyria Chronicles

VGC - 480k

NPD - 150k

littlebigplanet PSP

VGC - 260k

NPD - 160k

Uncharted 2

VGC - 1.34 million

NPD - 900k

Call of Duty Modern Warfare Reflex

VGC - 550k

NPD - 280k

These are just a few examples, and yes, VGC edit their numbers after leaks.

EDIT: VGC is back in fashion with some people who are also trying their very best to discredit NPD. If it wasnt clear enough,the NPDnumbers are being compared to VGC'Americas' numbers. Canada at best makes up 10% of the US market, the other nations are almost negligible.

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clubsammich91

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#2 clubsammich91
Member since 2009 • 2229 Posts
Look, VG chartz isn't an exact science, but it's a relatively good rough estimate, that's all.
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EndorphinMaster

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#3 EndorphinMaster
Member since 2009 • 2118 Posts

This won't stop the cows from using VGC whenever it benefits their argument.

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GulliversTravel

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#4 GulliversTravel
Member since 2009 • 3110 Posts
Look, VG chartz isn't an exact science, but it's a relatively good rough estimate, that's all.clubsammich91
Id suggest you take a look at the numbers:P
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GunSmith1_basic

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#5 GunSmith1_basic
Member since 2002 • 10548 Posts
they do correct their numbers after they are proven though, right?
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GulliversTravel

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#6 GulliversTravel
Member since 2009 • 3110 Posts
they do correct their numbers after they are proven though, right?GunSmith1_basic
Vast majority of the time they dont.
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Shinobi120

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#7 Shinobi120
Member since 2004 • 5728 Posts

Just more proof that VG Chartz isn't very reliable.

This won't stop the cows from using VGC whenever it benefits their argument.

EndorphinMaster

LOL, so very true.

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Zero5000X

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#8 Zero5000X
Member since 2004 • 8314 Posts
NPD is North America. VGChartz estimates worldwide sales.
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savebattery

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#9 savebattery
Member since 2009 • 3626 Posts
Not that I'm defending VgChartz, but SEGA's recent comments really call NPD into question as well.
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smartcriminal

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#10 smartcriminal
Member since 2004 • 1275 Posts

Is NPD estimates or actual data from retailers?

Also isnt it America only and only certain stores?

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Ants2k1

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#11 Ants2k1
Member since 2004 • 612 Posts
It is only certain stores, they dont have wal mart numbers for sure.
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Evz0rz

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#12 Evz0rz
Member since 2006 • 4624 Posts

Look, VG chartz isn't an exact science, but it's a relatively good rough estimate, that's all.clubsammich91
More like relatively awful estimate

Forza 3

VGC - 1.01 million

NPD - 450k

Valkyria Chronicles

VGC - 480k

NPD - 150k

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longtonguecat

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#13 longtonguecat
Member since 2008 • 2558 Posts

Isn't VGC worldwide?

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tbolt76

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#14 tbolt76
Member since 2008 • 987 Posts

[QUOTE="clubsammich91"]Look, VG chartz isn't an exact science, but it's a relatively good rough estimate, that's all.Evz0rz

More like relatively awful estimate

Forza 3

VGC - 1.01 million

NPD - 450k

Valkyria Chronicles

VGC - 480k

NPD - 150k

As noted previously, VGC estimates WORLDWIDE sales, while NPD is North America (Canada, Mexico and USA) only. Of course VGC figures will be greater than NPD.
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GulliversTravel

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#15 GulliversTravel
Member since 2009 • 3110 Posts

Isn't VGC worldwide?

longtonguecat
Why would i compare VGC worldwide numbers with NPD which is only the US (not even NA).:P
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chansaet

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#16 chansaet
Member since 2003 • 6282 Posts
vgchartz estimates world wide figures while NPD is for North America. This explains why they are so far off.
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mythrol

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#17 mythrol
Member since 2005 • 5237 Posts
NPD does not include all US retail stores. Wal-Mart and quite a few others do not share their retail information.
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longtonguecat

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#18 longtonguecat
Member since 2008 • 2558 Posts

[QUOTE="longtonguecat"]

Isn't VGC worldwide?

GulliversTravel

Why would i compare VGC worldwide numbers with NPD which is only the US (not even NA).:P

'Cause your brain might have been on holiday? :P

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JLF1

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#19 JLF1
Member since 2005 • 8263 Posts

No offence but the fact that VGZ claims it tracks wordwide figures makes them even less reliable. You can't get numbers from Europe as no one is tracking every single country here.

VGZ should not be used at all as they are totaly false numbers. The only correct numbers they have are the numbers they steal from other companies like NPD.

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nervmeister

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#20 nervmeister
Member since 2005 • 15377 Posts

This won't stop the cows and lemmings from using VGC whenever it benefits their argument.

EndorphinMaster

Fixed for accuracy.

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blazinpuertoroc

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#21 blazinpuertoroc
Member since 2004 • 12245 Posts

I heard NPD doesnt include Wal Mart and online retailers is this true? if so NPD is just as unreliable.

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XenogearsMaster

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#22 XenogearsMaster
Member since 2007 • 3175 Posts
NPD is 30% off stated by a Sega representative and VGC collects world wide sales.
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yoyo462001

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#23 yoyo462001
Member since 2005 • 7535 Posts
i see SW doesnt understand simple statistics. NPD use statistical inferences so does Vgchartz however the NPD's methods are far better and offer a closer point estimate to what the real population parameters are. NPD =/= real numbers, Sony numbers =/= real numbers , numbers that SEGA give out =/= real numbers there is always going to be an error margin in all of these. In terms of vgchart theirs is alot higher one than NPD and calls into question the conclusions they make.
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DoomZaW

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#24 DoomZaW
Member since 2007 • 6475 Posts

Look, VG chartz isn't an exact science, but it's a relatively good rough estimate, that's all.clubsammich91

they are more than 50% off on most numbers, i wouldn't really call that reliable

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WilliamRLBaker

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#25 WilliamRLBaker
Member since 2006 • 28915 Posts

huh? world wide? compared to US only?

why don't they use VGchartz US only predictions?

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Eddie-Vedder

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#26 Eddie-Vedder
Member since 2003 • 7810 Posts

lol npd...

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Parasomniac

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#27 Parasomniac
Member since 2007 • 2723 Posts
VG Chartz thinks their numbers are factual and if you tell them otherwise they just ban you.
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Vasichko

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#28 Vasichko
Member since 2004 • 2565 Posts

Who cares who sells how much? Get a life.

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deactivated-5dd711115e664

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#29 deactivated-5dd711115e664
Member since 2005 • 8956 Posts

This won't stop the cows from using VGC whenever it benefits their argument.

EndorphinMaster

It's not just cows. ALL the fanboys seem to use VGC when it suits their needs.

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blue_hazy_basic

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#30 blue_hazy_basic  Moderator
Member since 2002 • 30854 Posts
NPD is 30% off stated by a Sega representative and VGC collects world wide sales.XenogearsMaster
Or is the sega rep maybe not right? Remember NPD=sales, whereas Sega would be talking about its shipped figures. Do you have a link so I can see?
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SolidTy

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#31 SolidTy
Member since 2005 • 49991 Posts

Well, remember guys :


  1. The NPD just represents a portion of UNITED STATES Sales
  2. The NPD is NOT the entire United States.

The NPD is very limited, not even Walmart or Amazon are included, not to mention the Entire United States.

It's a very nice tool, but we need to realize it's limitations, including that games do sell worldwide, and Walmart, Amazon, etc do sell games.

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heybooboo19

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#32 heybooboo19
Member since 2009 • 428 Posts

[QUOTE="EndorphinMaster"]

This won't stop people from using VGC whenever it benefits their argument.

nervmeister

Fixed for accuracy.

Now it's right.
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mD-

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#33 mD-
Member since 2005 • 4314 Posts

Um, I thought NPD leaves out certain big retailers, which would actually throw their numbers off...

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mD-

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#34 mD-
Member since 2005 • 4314 Posts

Well, remember guys :


  1. The NPD just represents a portion of UNITED STATES Sales
  2. The NPD is NOT the entire United States.

The NPD is very limited, not even Walmart or Amazon are included, not to mention the Entire United States.

It's a very nice tool, but we need to realize it's limitations, including that games do sell worldwide, and Walmart, Amazon, etc do sell games.

SolidTy

And there you go.

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surrealnumber5

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#35 surrealnumber5
Member since 2008 • 23044 Posts

Well, remember guys :


  1. The NPD just represents a portion of UNITED STATES Sales
  2. The NPD is NOT the entire United States.

The NPD is very limited, not even Walmart or Amazon are included, not to mention the Entire United States.

It's a very nice tool, but we need to realize it's limitations, including that games do sell worldwide, and Walmart, Amazon, etc do sell games.

SolidTy

only those selling online know online sales and although NPD does not get numbers from walmart they do account for them in their numbers.

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blue_hazy_basic

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#36 blue_hazy_basic  Moderator
Member since 2002 • 30854 Posts

Well, remember guys :


  1. The NPD just represents a portion of UNITED STATES Sales
  2. The NPD is NOT the entire United States.

The NPD is very limited, not even Walmart or Amazon are included, not to mention the Entire United States.

It's a very nice tool, but we need to realize it's limitations, including that games do sell worldwide, and Walmart, Amazon, etc do sell games.

SolidTy

They include estimates for those in their figures. If NPD is good enough for MS, Sony and Nintendo, its more than good enough for SW! Same can not be said for VGC...

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Eddie-Vedder

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#37 Eddie-Vedder
Member since 2003 • 7810 Posts

[QUOTE="SolidTy"]

Well, remember guys :


  1. The NPD just represents a portion of UNITED STATES Sales
  2. The NPD is NOT the entire United States.

The NPD is very limited, not even Walmart or Amazon are included, not to mention the Entire United States.

It's a very nice tool, but we need to realize it's limitations, including that games do sell worldwide, and Walmart, Amazon, etc do sell games.

blue_hazy_basic

They include estimates for those in their figures. If NPD is good enough for MS, Sony and Nintendo, its more than good enough for SW! Same can not be said for VGC...

Estimates = guesstimates, same as VGC. And I've seen plenty of respectable sources use VGC so... If your going to discredit one, might as well discredit the other. I hate the whole SW sales game so I'm just going to discredit both.

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blue_hazy_basic

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#38 blue_hazy_basic  Moderator
Member since 2002 • 30854 Posts

[QUOTE="blue_hazy_basic"]

[QUOTE="SolidTy"]

Well, remember guys :


  1. The NPD just represents a portion of UNITED STATES Sales
  2. The NPD is NOT the entire United States.

The NPD is very limited, not even Walmart or Amazon are included, not to mention the Entire United States.

It's a very nice tool, but we need to realize it's limitations, including that games do sell worldwide, and Walmart, Amazon, etc do sell games.

Eddie-Vedder

They include estimates for those in their figures. If NPD is good enough for MS, Sony and Nintendo, its more than good enough for SW! Same can not be said for VGC...

Estimates = guesstimates, same as VGC. And I've seen plenty of respectable sources use VGC so... If your going to discredit one, might as well discredit the other. I hate the whole SW sales game so I'm just going to discredit both.

Errr god no. NPD you're talking about them collecting data from 70% (making that figure up but a vast sample) vs VGC which is taking it from a couple of shops :P If you know how samples work the larger the sample the more accurate the data. So for example in polls for elections a sample size of a few 1000 can give an accurate representation of the nation's opinion to within a few %. The larger the sample size the more accurate it is. A very small sample of people from 1 locale would not give an accurate picture.

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surrealnumber5

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#39 surrealnumber5
Member since 2008 • 23044 Posts

[QUOTE="Eddie-Vedder"]

[QUOTE="blue_hazy_basic"]They include estimates for those in their figures. If NPD is good enough for MS, Sony and Nintendo, its more than good enough for SW! Same can not be said for VGC...

blue_hazy_basic

Estimates = guesstimates, same as VGC. And I've seen plenty of respectable sources use VGC so... If your going to discredit one, might as well discredit the other. I hate the whole SW sales game so I'm just going to discredit both.

Errr god no. NPD you're talking about them collecting data from 70% (making that figure up but a vast sample) vs VGC which is taking it from a couple of shops :P If you know how samples work the larger the sample the more accurate the data. So for example in polls for elections a sample size of a few 1000 can give an accurate representation of the nation's opinion to within a few %. The larger the sample size the more accurate it is. A very small sample of people from 1 locale would not give an accurate picture.

its not worth the argument, statistics and the rules that govern them are above those who make statements like "Estimates = guesstimates, same as VGC"
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blue_hazy_basic

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#40 blue_hazy_basic  Moderator
Member since 2002 • 30854 Posts
[QUOTE="surrealnumber5"][QUOTE="blue_hazy_basic"]

[QUOTE="Eddie-Vedder"] Estimates = guesstimates, same as VGC. And I've seen plenty of respectable sources use VGC so... If your going to discredit one, might as well discredit the other. I hate the whole SW sales game so I'm just going to discredit both.

Errr god no. NPD you're talking about them collecting data from 70% (making that figure up but a vast sample) vs VGC which is taking it from a couple of shops :P If you know how samples work the larger the sample the more accurate the data. So for example in polls for elections a sample size of a few 1000 can give an accurate representation of the nation's opinion to within a few %. The larger the sample size the more accurate it is. A very small sample of people from 1 locale would not give an accurate picture.

its not worth the argument, statistics and the rules that govern them are above those who make statements like "Estimates = guesstimates, same as VGC"

Well it suits certain agendas not to want to believe NPD figures and no matter how many times its been proven, or that flipping all 3 of the hardware companies accept NPD as gospel, some people will choose to believe that they are to be believed because they don't fit in with what they want.
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SaudiFury

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#41 SaudiFury
Member since 2007 • 8709 Posts

This won't stop the cows from using VGC whenever it benefits their argument.

EndorphinMaster
cows or anyone else for that matter.
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Eddie-Vedder

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#42 Eddie-Vedder
Member since 2003 • 7810 Posts

[QUOTE="Eddie-Vedder"]

[QUOTE="blue_hazy_basic"]They include estimates for those in their figures. If NPD is good enough for MS, Sony and Nintendo, its more than good enough for SW! Same can not be said for VGC...

blue_hazy_basic

Estimates = guesstimates, same as VGC. And I've seen plenty of respectable sources use VGC so... If your going to discredit one, might as well discredit the other. I hate the whole SW sales game so I'm just going to discredit both.

Errr god no. NPD you're talking about them collecting data from 70% (making that figure up but a vast sample) vs VGC which is taking it from a couple of shops :P If you know how samples work the larger the sample the more accurate the data. So for example in polls for elections a sample size of a few 1000 can give an accurate representation of the nation's opinion to within a few %. The larger the sample size the more accurate it is. A very small sample of people from 1 locale would not give an accurate picture.

Those samples are usually within 2/3% or something, that Sega rep said NPD was around 30% off, that's huge. And for the record I don't win anything with or without NPD, you'll see me discredit them however the numbers come in. I just think SW gives NPD way to much credit.
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mythrol

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#43 mythrol
Member since 2005 • 5237 Posts

[QUOTE="EndorphinMaster"]

This won't stop the cows from using VGC whenever it benefits their argument.

ZIMdoom

It's not just cows. ALL the fanboys seem to use VGC when it suits their needs.

It's not just fanboys. Until we have something better, VGChartz is all we got for software sales WW. I'd love a more accurate source, but until then. We really have no choice in the matter.
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blue_hazy_basic

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#44 blue_hazy_basic  Moderator
Member since 2002 • 30854 Posts
you'll see me discredit them however the numbers come in. I just think SW gives NPD way to much credit.Eddie-Vedder
You think MS, Sony and Nintendo are wrong to use them then? Don't you think that the actual companies would talk about how inaccurate it was if it really was?
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MrFanboy

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#45 MrFanboy
Member since 2010 • 397 Posts
SEGA proved NPD is a joke. So both are a joke. I could also say VGC proves NPD is a joke. Neither of those are trustworthy.
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blue_hazy_basic

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#46 blue_hazy_basic  Moderator
Member since 2002 • 30854 Posts
[QUOTE="mythrol"][QUOTE="ZIMdoom"]

[QUOTE="EndorphinMaster"]

This won't stop the cows from using VGC whenever it benefits their argument.

It's not just cows. ALL the fanboys seem to use VGC when it suits their needs.

It's not just fanboys. Until we have something better, VGChartz is all we got for software sales WW. I'd love a more accurate source, but until then. We really have no choice in the matter.

So you'd rather use a source we know is wrong rather than wait on accurate figures from the companies? 360: 38 million PS3: 33 million Wii: 68 million There use those numbers every bit as accurate as the VGC numbers, now you have another source
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blue_hazy_basic

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#47 blue_hazy_basic  Moderator
Member since 2002 • 30854 Posts
SEGA proved NPD is a joke. So both are a joke. I could also say VGC proves NPD is a joke. Neither of those are trustworthy.MrFanboy
lol @ cows trying to discredit NPD
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MrFanboy

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#48 MrFanboy
Member since 2010 • 397 Posts

[QUOTE="mythrol"][QUOTE="ZIMdoom"]

It's not just cows. ALL the fanboys seem to use VGC when it suits their needs.

blue_hazy_basic

It's not just fanboys. Until we have something better, VGChartz is all we got for software sales WW. I'd love a more accurate source, but until then. We really have no choice in the matter.

So you'd rather use a source we know is wrong rather than wait on accurate figures from the companies?

He said use it WHILE we wait.

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OhSnapitz

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#49 OhSnapitz
Member since 2002 • 19282 Posts
[QUOTE="ZIMdoom"]

[QUOTE="EndorphinMaster"]

This won't stop the cows from using VGC whenever it benefits their argument.

mythrol

It's not just cows. ALL the fanboys seem to use VGC when it suits their needs.

It's not just fanboys. Until we have something better, VGChartz is all we got for software sales WW. I'd love a more accurate source, but until then. We really have no choice in the matter.

What do you mean "we don't have a choice".. VGchartz has been proven wrong time and time again.. and I've seen them changes their numbers to line up with NPD numbers once they were released. That right there should tell you how accurate their numbers are. The majority of the fanboys who want to agree with VGchartz numbers are cows because regardless of how off their numbers are, they ALWAYS favor the PS brand. We used NPD numbers ALL LAST GEN.. EVERYONE used them and no one questioned them (especially the cows). Now all of a sudden "we have no choice but to use VGchartz numbers"... ******* ******** please. :roll:
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blue_hazy_basic

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#50 blue_hazy_basic  Moderator
Member since 2002 • 30854 Posts

[QUOTE="blue_hazy_basic"][QUOTE="mythrol"] It's not just fanboys. Until we have something better, VGChartz is all we got for software sales WW. I'd love a more accurate source, but until then. We really have no choice in the matter.MrFanboy

So you'd rather use a source we know is wrong rather than wait on accurate figures from the companies?

He said use it WHILE we wait.

And i gave him an equally reliable source to use, me.