Scott Miller: Consoles will die. They have two cycles left...

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AdrianWerner

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#101 AdrianWerner
Member since 2003 • 28441 Posts

Of course they will die. COnsoles are a dead end that's choking the industry more and more. Their only advantage is lower start price. Once we reach enough hardware level to let devs do anything they want, consoles will die. If your tv, home video or phone will be able to run those games, what's the point of consoles at all? Especially since this whole model of several incompatibile platforms that dominates in console market is a terrible model considering the costs of making modern games.

In future we'll likely all play in one net system and all our devices - pcs, tvs, laptops, phones etc will just act as terminal that connects to it.

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Mawy_Golomb

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#102 Mawy_Golomb
Member since 2008 • 1047 Posts
Seeing consoles disappear is really not as bad as one may think. Scott Miller made a good point about how producing games for any platform will be that much easier, making every game go multiplatform. And I guess it means that a lot of game companies and game franchises that are exclusives are going to be independent after that, except for the ones that might go out of business altogether.
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Harisemo

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#103 Harisemo
Member since 2010 • 4133 Posts

scott miller will probably die before consoles

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Mawy_Golomb

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#104 Mawy_Golomb
Member since 2008 • 1047 Posts
Watch as games' production costs spiral out of control, and publishers will eventually find alternatives to consoles.
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SaltyMeatballs

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#105 SaltyMeatballs
Member since 2009 • 25165 Posts
I'm psychic and I say no.
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frostybanana

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#106 frostybanana
Member since 2010 • 5523 Posts

scott miller will probably die before consoles

Harisemo
Yeah, probably.
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Sushiglutton

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#107 Sushiglutton
Member since 2009 • 10465 Posts

scott miller will probably die before consoles

Harisemo
Not according to the interview. He uses hormon therapy to survive to 2045. That's the year humans will become immortal. He will probably live for a few thousand years!

Edit: He actually says this in the interview :shock:!
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dzimm

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#108 dzimm
Member since 2006 • 6615 Posts

Scott Miller seems to enjoy making inflammatory predictions that never come true. I seem to recall him making disparaging comments about digital distribution back in the day, so, yeah...

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Puckhog04

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#109 Puckhog04
Member since 2003 • 22814 Posts

Who's Scott Miller? Anyway, as long as Consoles are selling like they are and always have been, which is very well, they aren't going anywhere.

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johny300

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#110 johny300
Member since 2010 • 12496 Posts
No consles will last forever.
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Lucianu

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#111 Lucianu
Member since 2007 • 10347 Posts

Who's Scott Miller? Anyway, as long as Consoles are selling like they are and always have been, which is very well, they aren't going anywhere.

Puckhog04

He created and influenced the use of demos for games, and also was the man responsable for id's success. Basically, he was a very influencial person in the 80s and 90s, and greatly influenced gaming as a whole, to this day.

I've watched a documentary about him from machinima on youtube, a wile back..

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Scoob64

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#112 Scoob64
Member since 2008 • 2635 Posts

before "experts" were saying THIS would be the last gen of consoles.... not going to happen.

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kozzy1234

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#113 kozzy1234
Member since 2005 • 35966 Posts

He brings up some good points.

IMO consoles have a bigger chance of dying then PC does. Yet every year we hear trolls screaming "PC GAMING IS TEH DEAD!", yet every year PC gamign gets bigger and better.

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dzimm

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#114 dzimm
Member since 2006 • 6615 Posts

Who's Scott Miller?

Puckhog04

He was a big-time mover-and-shaker back in the day when the PC gaming industry was just getting its start. If I'm not mistaken, he's actually one of the pioneers of the "shareware" model of game distribution, where part of a game would be distributed for free, and then you would send in payment for a special code to unlock the rest of the game. He founded Apogee Software in 1987 which later became 3D Realms, and he's the man responsible for giving John Carmack and John Romero their big break when he agreed to include Commander Keen in one of his shareware compilations. Unfortunately, his star isn't shining too brightly these days in the wake of the Duke Nukem Forever fiasco which pretty much bankrupted his company.

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nameless12345

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#115 nameless12345
Member since 2010 • 15125 Posts

Well it's true that PC hardware prices are down to the point they're comparable to consoles and it's also true that there are no licensing fees and stuff like that on the consoles but seeing how a massive success games like the Call of Duty series are on the consoles I doubt they will just cease to be.

If the sales on the PC would be great everyone would make games for it but seemingly only some games really succeed on the PC (such as World of Warcraft and The Sims) and it's tarnished by piracy.

I think the future consoles will be even more like PCs (to my great dissapointment - consoles should be cheap and fun imo) and the systems will just merge in a way with the PC becoming more of a platform for new technologies and commercial console emulation (console ports are exactly that and I think there'll only be more in the future to reduce development costs).

What's really the problem with consoles is that their development costs and the risk of commercial failure are so high that there are only a few console makers left and even those hesitate with new consoles or look to other markets.

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Demonjoe93

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#116 Demonjoe93
Member since 2009 • 9869 Posts

Since his crystal ball clearly works maybe someone should ask him who's going to win in 2012.

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alexside1

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#117 alexside1
Member since 2006 • 4412 Posts

Of course they will die. COnsoles are a dead end that's choking the industry more and more. Their only advantage is lower start price. Once we reach enough hardware level to let devs do anything they want, consoles will die. If your tv, home video or phone will be able to run those games, what's the point of consoles at all? Especially since this whole model of several incompatibile platforms that dominates in console market is a terrible model considering the costs of making modern games.

In future we'll likely all play in one net system and all our devices - pcs, tvs, laptops, phones etc will just act as terminal that connects to it.

AdrianWerner
Keep dreaming your fantasy why don't you?
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PatchMaster

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#118 PatchMaster
Member since 2003 • 6013 Posts

I'd say consoles have about another 10 years. At the very least digital distribution will surpass retail by that point.

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GeneralShowzer

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#119 GeneralShowzer
Member since 2010 • 11598 Posts
[QUOTE="AdrianWerner"]

Of course they will die. COnsoles are a dead end that's choking the industry more and more. Their only advantage is lower start price. Once we reach enough hardware level to let devs do anything they want, consoles will die. If your tv, home video or phone will be able to run those games, what's the point of consoles at all? Especially since this whole model of several incompatibile platforms that dominates in console market is a terrible model considering the costs of making modern games.

In future we'll likely all play in one net system and all our devices - pcs, tvs, laptops, phones etc will just act as terminal that connects to it.

alexside1
Keep dreaming your fantasy why don't you?

Kojima and Scot Miller said the same things.
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BIOKILLER123

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#120 BIOKILLER123
Member since 2010 • 1093 Posts

He's views are plausible we'll just have to wait and see.

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alexside1

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#122 alexside1
Member since 2006 • 4412 Posts
[QUOTE="alexside1"][QUOTE="AdrianWerner"]

Of course they will die. COnsoles are a dead end that's choking the industry more and more. Their only advantage is lower start price. Once we reach enough hardware level to let devs do anything they want, consoles will die. If your tv, home video or phone will be able to run those games, what's the point of consoles at all? Especially since this whole model of several incompatibile platforms that dominates in console market is a terrible model considering the costs of making modern games.

In future we'll likely all play in one net system and all our devices - pcs, tvs, laptops, phones etc will just act as terminal that connects to it.

GeneralShowzer
Keep dreaming your fantasy why don't you?

Kojima and Scot Miller said the same things.

And that makes it creditable? Ah how about I give you a no.
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PatchMaster

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#123 PatchMaster
Member since 2003 • 6013 Posts

[QUOTE="AdrianWerner"]

Of course they will die. COnsoles are a dead end that's choking the industry more and more. Their only advantage is lower start price. Once we reach enough hardware level to let devs do anything they want, consoles will die. If your tv, home video or phone will be able to run those games, what's the point of consoles at all? Especially since this whole model of several incompatibile platforms that dominates in console market is a terrible model considering the costs of making modern games.

In future we'll likely all play in one net system and all our devices - pcs, tvs, laptops, phones etc will just act as terminal that connects to it.

alexside1

Keep dreaming your fantasy why don't you?

Keep being afraid of change why don't you?

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Dogswithguns

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#124 Dogswithguns
Member since 2007 • 11359 Posts
Consoles will die. PC gaming will die.. everyday?!
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mythrol

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#125 mythrol
Member since 2005 • 5237 Posts
Until you can make a gaming PC hit the magical $299 price point, consoles won't die. Anyone who thinks so is crazy.
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GeneralShowzer

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#126 GeneralShowzer
Member since 2010 • 11598 Posts
[QUOTE="alexside1"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="alexside1"] Keep dreaming your fantasy why don't you?

Kojima and Scot Miller said the same things.

And that makes it creditable? Ah how about I give you a no.

Their YES is a lot more credible than your NO.
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alexside1

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#127 alexside1
Member since 2006 • 4412 Posts

[QUOTE="alexside1"][QUOTE="AdrianWerner"]

Of course they will die. COnsoles are a dead end that's choking the industry more and more. Their only advantage is lower start price. Once we reach enough hardware level to let devs do anything they want, consoles will die. If your tv, home video or phone will be able to run those games, what's the point of consoles at all? Especially since this whole model of several incompatibile platforms that dominates in console market is a terrible model considering the costs of making modern games.

In future we'll likely all play in one net system and all our devices - pcs, tvs, laptops, phones etc will just act as terminal that connects to it.

PatchMaster

Keep dreaming your fantasy why don't you?

Keep being afraid of change why don't you?

Try to be more original when making a counter to my argument k?
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fueled-system

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#128 fueled-system
Member since 2008 • 6529 Posts

no they wont.... consoles are used for convience they remain for a while unless some tech comes along

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Grawse

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#129 Grawse
Member since 2010 • 4342 Posts

[QUOTE="alexside1"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"] Kojima and Scot Miller said the same things.GeneralShowzer
And that makes it creditable? Ah how about I give you a no.

Their YES is a lot more credible than your NO.

No it doesn't.

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frostybanana

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#130 frostybanana
Member since 2010 • 5523 Posts
[QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="alexside1"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"] Kojima and Scot Miller said the same things.

And that makes it creditable? Ah how about I give you a no.

Their YES is a lot more credible than your NO.

Except their YES isn't based on factual evidence, it's based on conjecture.
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Sushiglutton

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#131 Sushiglutton
Member since 2009 • 10465 Posts
[QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="alexside1"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"] Kojima and Scot Miller said the same things.

And that makes it creditable? Ah how about I give you a no.

Their YES is a lot more credible than your NO.

Did u listen to the entire interview? The guy is nuts. First he predicts that publishers will die. Then suddenly he realises they handle the marketing and changes his mind. Basically he just throws random things out there to provoce a reaction (listen to the immortality bit :P).
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GeneralShowzer

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#132 GeneralShowzer
Member since 2010 • 11598 Posts
[QUOTE="frostybanana"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="alexside1"] And that makes it creditable? Ah how about I give you a no.

Their YES is a lot more credible than your NO.

Except their YES isn't based on factual evidence, it's based on conjecture.

Hey, when you people are / were as influential in the industry as Miller and Koijma, maybe people will pay attention to what you have to say, I don't know.
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GeneralShowzer

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#134 GeneralShowzer
Member since 2010 • 11598 Posts
[QUOTE="Sushiglutton"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="alexside1"] And that makes it creditable? Ah how about I give you a no.

Their YES is a lot more credible than your NO.

Did u listen to the entire interview? The guy is nuts. First he predicts that publishers will die. Then suddenly he realises they handle the marketing and changes his mind. Basically he just throws random things out there to provoce a reaction (listen to the immortality bit :P).

According to Wikipedia he was born in 61. He looks very young, he might be on to something :P
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frostybanana

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#135 frostybanana
Member since 2010 • 5523 Posts
[QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="frostybanana"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"] Their YES is a lot more credible than your NO.

Except their YES isn't based on factual evidence, it's based on conjecture.

Hey, when you people are / were as influential in the industry as Miller and Koijma, maybe people will pay attention to what you have to say, I don't know.

They're influential (well at least Kojima is, I didn't really know who Scott Miller was prior to the video) but they are not psychics. There is no way to predict the way technology will advance. To say that a certain piece of technology will be rendered obsolete in a set amount of time is a bold prediction and for it to be viable there better be some hard evidence, regardless of who you are.
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Sushiglutton

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#136 Sushiglutton
Member since 2009 • 10465 Posts
[QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="Sushiglutton"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"] Their YES is a lot more credible than your NO.

Did u listen to the entire interview? The guy is nuts. First he predicts that publishers will die. Then suddenly he realises they handle the marketing and changes his mind. Basically he just throws random things out there to provoce a reaction (listen to the immortality bit :P).

According to Wikipedia he was born in 61. He looks very young, he might be on to something :P

Hormon therapy ftw 8)!
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GeneralShowzer

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#137 GeneralShowzer
Member since 2010 • 11598 Posts
[QUOTE="frostybanana"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="frostybanana"] Except their YES isn't based on factual evidence, it's based on conjecture.

Hey, when you people are / were as influential in the industry as Miller and Koijma, maybe people will pay attention to what you have to say, I don't know.

They're influential (well at least Kojima is, I didn't really know who Scott Miller was prior to the video) but they are not psychics. There is no way to predict the way technology will advance. To say that a certain piece of technology will be rendered obsolete in a set amount of time is a bold prediction and for it to be viable there better be some hard evidence, regardless of who you are.

People who have been in the industry for decades and were very successful at it, have more insight to comment on what the future of the industry holds.
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Sushiglutton

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#138 Sushiglutton
Member since 2009 • 10465 Posts
Consoles dying will only happen if PC is able to absorb the casual players. So the dumbing down hermits dislike won't die with the consoles. I doubt developers will be able to take full advantage of high end hardware either due to cost. Hardware exclusives will go away though.
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DarthJohnova

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#139 DarthJohnova
Member since 2010 • 4599 Posts

Perhaps he needs to make some more credible game titles then...whoever he is xD

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Nerkcon

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#140 Nerkcon
Member since 2006 • 4707 Posts
What he says makes sense and is the same stuff many many people are predicting. If (or should I say when) gaming moves completely to the cloud there is no need for consoles. Just look at Netflix it comes integrated into many new TVs. Same thing would happen with video games.Zero5000X
No one should want this, especially not PC gamers. No access to the game files means bye-bye custom user content, mods and community driven dedicated servers. :(
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frostybanana

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#141 frostybanana
Member since 2010 • 5523 Posts
[QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="frostybanana"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"] Hey, when you people are / were as influential in the industry as Miller and Koijma, maybe people will pay attention to what you have to say, I don't know.

They're influential (well at least Kojima is, I didn't really know who Scott Miller was prior to the video) but they are not psychics. There is no way to predict the way technology will advance. To say that a certain piece of technology will be rendered obsolete in a set amount of time is a bold prediction and for it to be viable there better be some hard evidence, regardless of who you are.

People who have been in the industry for decades and were very successful at it, have more insight to comment on what the future of the industry holds.

Again, that doesn't matter. If people believed everything they heard just because it came from a particular source, the world would be full of idiots. That's where it's important to take the information with a grain of salt. They are not providing evidence or sufficient support on this idea. This is based on their own personal speculation which is clouded by their own opinions and their own bias. Furthermore, they are not in control of the life span of consoles. They are game developers, not the people actually building the technology. So whatever ideas they have aren't important if the technology doesn't advance at the rate that they are predicting. And as I said, there is no way to predict how quickly it will advance. It is conjecture.
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Sushiglutton

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#143 Sushiglutton
Member since 2009 • 10465 Posts
[QUOTE="Zero5000X"]What he says makes sense and is the same stuff many many people are predicting. If (or should I say when) gaming moves completely to the cloud there is no need for consoles. Just look at Netflix it comes integrated into many new TVs. Same thing would happen with video games.Nerkcon
No one should want this, especially not PC gamers. No access to the game files means bye-bye custom user content, mods and community driven dedicated servers. :(

Miller doesn't predict onlive type cloud though. He says that we will be able to download games to all devices (TVs etc).
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GeneralShowzer

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#144 GeneralShowzer
Member since 2010 • 11598 Posts
[QUOTE="frostybanana"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="frostybanana"] They're influential (well at least Kojima is, I didn't really know who Scott Miller was prior to the video) but they are not psychics. There is no way to predict the way technology will advance. To say that a certain piece of technology will be rendered obsolete in a set amount of time is a bold prediction and for it to be viable there better be some hard evidence, regardless of who you are.

People who have been in the industry for decades and were very successful at it, have more insight to comment on what the future of the industry holds.

Again, that doesn't matter. If people believed everything they heard just because it came from a particular source, the world would be full of idiots. That's where it's important to take the information with a grain of salt. They are not providing evidence or sufficient support on this idea. This is based on their own personal speculation which is clouded by their own opinions and their own bias. Furthermore, they are not in control of the life span of consoles. They are game developers, not the people actually building the technology. So whatever ideas they have aren't important if the technology doesn't advance at the rate that they are predicting. And as I said, there is no way to predict how quickly it will advance. It is conjecture.

Their prediction/opinion on the matter still holds more weight than the average SW poster which is what I was saying in the first place.
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skrat_01

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#145 skrat_01
Member since 2007 • 33767 Posts
If you look at the changes in the last decade, and how quickly cloud computing is catching on, well yes. Now look at the current console market and how costly and how high risk development is. Traditional console gaming as we know it is on the decline, the next decade is going to be an interesting one.
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frostybanana

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#146 frostybanana
Member since 2010 • 5523 Posts
[QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"][QUOTE="frostybanana"][QUOTE="GeneralShowzer"] People who have been in the industry for decades and were very successful at it, have more insight to comment on what the future of the industry holds.

Again, that doesn't matter. If people believed everything they heard just because it came from a particular source, the world would be full of idiots. That's where it's important to take the information with a grain of salt. They are not providing evidence or sufficient support on this idea. This is based on their own personal speculation which is clouded by their own opinions and their own bias. Furthermore, they are not in control of the life span of consoles. They are game developers, not the people actually building the technology. So whatever ideas they have aren't important if the technology doesn't advance at the rate that they are predicting. And as I said, there is no way to predict how quickly it will advance. It is conjecture.

Their prediction/opinion on the matter still holds more weight than the average SW poster which is what I was saying in the first place.

Arguing about that is asinine. Neither hold any weight to begin with without hard evidence.
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Zaibach

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#147 Zaibach
Member since 2007 • 13466 Posts

No Scott Miller!!!! YOU will die!! and you have two months left *sharpens Katana*

yeah its a jk

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Nerkcon

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#148 Nerkcon
Member since 2006 • 4707 Posts

[QUOTE="sethman410"][QUOTE="Espada12"]

Console gaming is dying!

lazerface216

Then, PC will continue to dominate as always.

pc gaming dominates? dominates what?

User created content. Community driven games. Free to play market. Most Asian markets. The strategy genre. The indie market. The flash gaming market. The social gaming market. The casual market. Simulator genre. Educational games. Typing games. And the piracy/illegal private gaming network underground.
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skrat_01

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#149 skrat_01
Member since 2007 • 33767 Posts
Consoles dying will only happen if PC is able to absorb the casual players. So the dumbing down hermits dislike won't die with the consoles. I doubt developers will be able to take full advantage of high end hardware either due to cost. Hardware exclusives will go away though.Sushiglutton
The PC already has a huge percentage of the casual market - from Facebook to Flash - spanning huge demographics. What the PC doesn't have is a hardware (peripheral based) advantage. You'll find the trend on focusing on special input devices more common in the next few years; it's why companies like Microsoft say the Kinect is here to stay for the long run. As far as their business model is concerned it is, it's very important to their business survival.
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Nerkcon

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#150 Nerkcon
Member since 2006 • 4707 Posts
[QUOTE="Nerkcon"][QUOTE="Zero5000X"]What he says makes sense and is the same stuff many many people are predicting. If (or should I say when) gaming moves completely to the cloud there is no need for consoles. Just look at Netflix it comes integrated into many new TVs. Same thing would happen with video games.Sushiglutton
No one should want this, especially not PC gamers. No access to the game files means bye-bye custom user content, mods and community driven dedicated servers. :(

Miller doesn't predict onlive type cloud though. He says that we will be able to download games to all devices (TVs etc).

But how would you play them without hardware? :? Online works by streaming the entire game. Some console games were slowly starting to move towards user created content and moving to cloud will make that impossible! :cry: