Krusty - there was little need for such an arrogant tone - your response is incorrect, it completely ignores the realities of the software market, and the important cost-driving factors of the industry. My response, that cartridges don't make sense - is based on a deep understanding of the industry - anyone who understands the gaming software business knows why consoles won't *ever* go with such a solution. - The most important costs for a software business - the one that can *kill them* - is the cost of inventory. Ideally a software company has zero inventory cost. That's why they all like digital distribution - they actually make the money they're supposed to make off a digital copy. Discs are a second-best, because at $0.75 per unit, the initial shipments are not obscene, nor does the cost of reimbursing stores for unsold inventory kill them. They can take back and dispose of discs without a huge hit - they can quickly print and issue a new shipment without eating their profits.subrosian
I do not intend to belittle anyone, but when an obvious point must be stated, it will be stated, in the most obvious terms possible. I apologize if I seem aggressive in my communication style. No ill-will is intended towards anyone.
I must make several points to address your position.
Firstly, you provide an optical disc price of $0.75 per unit. Has this cost been static throughout the history of optical discs? I think not. It's taken a lot of streamlining over the years to reach that price point. At one point, it was argued that optical discs would never replace tape cassettes for the very same reasons that you claim that flash memory or SD cards will never replace optical discs. There used to exist THOUSANDS of factories producing the magnetic tape that went into cassettes. Magnetic tape production had the advantage of nearly 40 years of production streamlining backing it. To many people at the start of the 1980's it seemed that optical disc media would never be as cost-effective as magnetic tape. Stamping the foil that goes into one of those discs required a far more sophisticated manufacturing process than what was necessary to produce magnetic tape. By comparison, magnetic tape seemed almost neolithic. The machines used to produce tape were far less expensive and fragile than those used to stamp discs. Streamlined production brought parity between the costs of the two formats, however. With parity achieved, the superior format naturally won. Streamlined production can do the same thing for SD cards that it did for optical discs.
Compared to how optical discs started out, SD cards actually have a considerable advantage. Thanks to digital cameras, SD card production is being streamlined as we speak. Optical discs didn't have a secondary use as a picture storage device the way that today's SD cards have. Thanks to modern society's insatiable demand for digital photography, more & more SD cards are being produced, and their costs will be reduced no matter what else happens. I fully expect SD card productions costs to drop even more rapidly than optical disc production costs dropped in the '80s & 90s. They're just far too useful for too many purposes for them not to. The next step is to introduce extremely high capacity SD cards to be used in video recording, because people want their video recorders to be small and that's just more easily done with SD cards than with discs.
It is an assumption to think that SD cards can't drop to the same level as optical discs in production costs, and it's a bad one, at that. It's the same assumption that many made in regards to magnetic tape vs optical discs. Of course I can't predict the future with certainty, but I can look at the past and base a prediction on established patterns.
Secondly, we have an example of the SD card format being used successfully in gaming. The Nintendo DS basically uses an SD card variant, and it has literally mopped the floor with Sony's disc-based PSP. Here we have an SD card format competing head-to-head against an optical disc format, and, here's the kicker, beating the snot out of it, giving it a wedgie, a nookie, an armtwist, spitting in its face, and then making it say, "thank you sir, may I have another". The DS, by all accounts, has been a resounding success. All it takes to transfer that success from the handheld market to the home console market is to increase the storage capacity of the cards while continuing to streamline production to reduce costs. This is definitely NOT beyond the pale.
Thirdly, in regards to DD. It seems to me that SD cards lend themselves to DD quite well. SD cards don't require expensive burners and basically anything that can read an SD card can write an SD card. If anything, an SD card format could be a Godsend to small developers looking to reduce inventory costs. If the consumer provides his own SD card and merely downloads a purchase to it, that completely negates the inventory concerns that you expressed. This would also ease a lot of concerns that consumers may have about DD, since they wouldn't be chaining their digital purchases to the harddrive of a console that may fail and take their purchases with it. If their console breaks, they could replace it and pop in their SD card with their downloaded games and keep playing as if nothing had ever happened. Also, small developers could even sell their DD to people that don't even have internet, since purchases could be arranged at kiosks as another poster pointed out earlier. It seems like a win-win to me.
Sorry for the long posts.
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