It's not even going to matter. MS has totally boned this one up. They pumped all this money into Tomb Raider, only to release it right in the face of a fall tidal wave of some of the industry's best sellers. Halo 5, Black Ops 3, Assassin's Creed Syndicate, and Star Wars Battlefront all release within the same 30 day period as the rumored Tomb Raider November release. Factoring in Forza 6 and the Gears of War remaster, Tomb Raider will be lucky to land in the top 5 sales on Xbox One this fall. If Fallout 4 gets a fall release date, it's game over for Tomb Raider.
MS blew it. They should have released this game either this summer (if its ready) or next summer. As you pointed out, Tomb Raider is not the big seller anymore. That's why Square Enix was not pleased with its sales. It did good sales, but not near enough to compete with the likes of Uncharted, Assassin's Creed, Battlefront, or God forbid, Halo or COD. This title needs to be in a window of it's own where it can dominate the headlines.
Exactly how many $60 games does MS think people buy at once, and where do you really think Tomb Raider falls in most people's priority on this list? PS4 gets most of these games too. So we now are supposed to think Fallout 4, Assassin's Creed Syndicate, COD Black Ops 3, Just Cause 3, Star Wars Battlefront, and the Uncharted Collection with an UC4 beta are not enough to tide a PS4 owner over for a few months to Uncharted 4? That they can't spend enough money on that list, and now just HAVE to spend $400+ on an XB1 and Tomb Raider? haha.
The fact MS released this title in the fall leads me more to believe this is more for Xbox One owners to not bail for Uncharted 4 than it is to actually expect PS4 owners to jump to XB1. Halo 5 is going to be the one that attracts new XB1 owners.
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