The only way I see GTA IV having an impact is if it was exclusive. Although I guess you could argue that by it being multi-platform, it levels the playing field.

I actually think the biggest impact on this generation of console wars is the continuing failure of Microsoft to build a stable base of supporters in Europe and especially in Japan. 

@laughingman42

Well, even taking that into account, let's say I take 10 million off the European sales figures, you'd have something like this:

PS3: 75-80 million

Wii: 75 million

Xbox 360: 60-65 million

What I find funny about my prediction, and which nobody has commented on, is that I actually think that Microsoft will sell more consoles in American than either Sony or Nintendo, but still lose overall.

[QUOTE="Alleluia_Cone"]

Predictions:

1. Sony Playstation 3: 85-90 million Japan: 15 million America: 35 million Europe: 35-40 million

Comments: My total sales number is predicated on the belief that the Playstation 3 will simply outlast the other two consoles, that is, I think Sony will switch to their next console after Nintendo and Microsoft. Also, as the price-point comes down I think all those who own a Playstation 2 right now, but don't have a next generation console, will most likely adopt its successor.

2. Nintendo Wii: 75 million Japan: 25 million America: 25 million Europe: 25 million

Comments: Broad appeal in all three markets and a low price-point. I can easily see it selling 25 million consoles in each of the Japanese, American, and PAL regions. However, because of its low technology approach, I also forecast that the Wii will begin to fade two or three years down the line.

3. Xbox 360: 60-65 million Japan: 2 million America: 40 million Europe: 20 million

Comments: The problem with the Xbox 360 is that, even if it sells even with the Playstation 3 in America (likely) and Europe (not likely), it will always have a minuscule portion of the Japanese market. Last generation it sold under a million in Japan, even if it were to more than double that (which is unlikely given that it's selling at the same rate as its predecessor), it would still be far less than Sony or Nintendo.

 

 

laughingman42

It isn't the smallest market at all, the Playstation 2 sold almost exactly the same amount of consoles in Europe as it did in America. While at the same time the Xbox sold about half the numbers it did in America in Europe. That the PAL region is pro-Sony is very, very clear in my opinion and is borne out by these numbers.

The price is a concern, but I highly doubt it will take two years to drop. I'd be shocked if it didn't drop this fall. Any statements to the contrary by Sony are to be expected, I mean, they don't want consumers to stop spending money now in waiting for an expected price drop.

[QUOTE="Alleluia_Cone"]

Predictions:

1. Sony Playstation 3: 85-90 million Japan: 15 million America: 35 million Europe: 35-40 million

Comments: My total sales number is predicated on the belief that the Playstation 3 will simply outlast the other two consoles, that is, I think Sony will switch to their next console after Nintendo and Microsoft. Also, as the price-point comes down I think all those who own a Playstation 2 right now, but don't have a next generation console, will most likely adopt its successor.

2. Nintendo Wii: 75 million Japan: 25 million America: 25 million Europe: 25 million

Comments: Broad appeal in all three markets and a low price-point. I can easily see it selling 25 million consoles in each of the Japanese, American, and PAL regions. However, because of its low technology approach, I also forecast that the Wii will begin to fade two or three years down the line.

3. Xbox 360: 60-65 million Japan: 2 million America: 40 million Europe: 20 million

Comments: The problem with the Xbox 360 is that, even if it sells even with the Playstation 3 in America (likely) and Europe (not likely), it will always have a minuscule portion of the Japanese market. Last generation it sold under a million in Japan, even if it were to more than double that (which is unlikely given that it's selling at the same rate as its predecessor), it would still be far less than Sony or Nintendo.

 

 

BEAN_LARD_MULCH

Im sorry but, Japan 15millon?! I dont think so, maybe 40 million....

The Playstation 2 has sold 25 million in this generation, I just don't see it duplicating its success, especially with the Wii to contend with. At best perhaps 20 million, but I think that's pushing it.

Predictions:

1. Sony Playstation 3: 85-90 million Japan: 15 million America: 35 million Europe: 35-40 million

Comments: My total sales number is predicated on the belief that the Playstation 3 will simply outlast the other two consoles, that is, I think Sony will switch to their next console after Nintendo and Microsoft. Also, as the price-point comes down I think all those who own a Playstation 2 right now, but don't have a next generation console, will most likely adopt its successor.

2. Nintendo Wii: 75 million Japan: 25 million America: 25 million Europe: 25 million

Comments: Broad appeal in all three markets and a low price-point. I can easily see it selling 25 million consoles in each of the Japanese, American, and PAL regions. However, because of its low technology approach, I also forecast that the Wii will begin to fade two or three years down the line.

3. Xbox 360: 60-65 million Japan: 2 million America: 40 million Europe: 20 million

Comments: The problem with the Xbox 360 is that, even if it sells even with the Playstation 3 in America (likely) and Europe (not likely), it will always have a minuscule portion of the Japanese market. Last generation it sold under a million in Japan, even if it were to more than double that (which is unlikely given that it's selling at the same rate as its predecessor), it would still be far less than Sony or Nintendo.