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KC_Hokie

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#1 KC_Hokie
Member since 2006 • 16099 Posts

[QUOTE="SUD123456"]

Normally I like to make fun of and mock the ridiculous nonsense that TC is prone to writing; however, in this case many of you are underselling the potential impact of this update. It is entirely possible that the basic assumptions underpinning the primary models that are used as the basis for the concept of global warming are wrong. Not just slightly off, but potentially wrong. Period.

worlock77

Sure it's possible. It's also possible that that's the case for our concept of gravity as well.

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong. "

-Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynman

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KC_Hokie

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#2 KC_Hokie
Member since 2006 • 16099 Posts
itt.. science at work.comp_atkins
Yay! Finally...took them six years.
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#3 KC_Hokie
Member since 2006 • 16099 Posts
So scientists are doing exactly what they are supposed to do and updating their models based on new data, while Hokie is proving himself not to be a scientist and still ignoring the data.chessmaster1989
They are doing what I was arguing for years. Their commentary based on exaggerated models in the IPCC reports never matched the observed data...which wasn't scientific.
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#4 KC_Hokie
Member since 2006 • 16099 Posts

[QUOTE="KC_Hokie"]

 They will admit past predictions have been wrong and CO2 isn't nearly as influential as predicted. They will admit they picked the highest estimates in the past and based their reports on it which resulted in doom and gloom.

They will likely predict more doom and gloom for the future, but will at least have to admit past mistakes. Their models simply didn't match observations and warming was statiscially insignificant.

HoolaHoopMan

In other words its nothing more than scientists including new data sets to improve climate models for more accurate predictions in the future, while simultaneously still holding true to man made emissions having a measureable effect.  

Go home Hokie, science isn't your forte, or keeping bets on leaving when you're dead fvcking wrong either. 

They will admit they were way off and their models were too. CO2 simply isn't as powerful as they thought and they can't prove how much humans have to do with climate if at all.

The science is catching up to their past doom and gloom predictions which is a good thing.

And they could no longer ignore the elephant in the room.

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#5 KC_Hokie
Member since 2006 • 16099 Posts

So there will still be warming and climate change, but it may be less than originally stated, now that there are better models and forecasts. Good to know.

I'd like to see a scientist's take on the science, rather than a blogger or news reporters take on leaked info. 

I particularly don't like the phrasing in the WSJ article. 50/50 chance of climate change being good? Um, if you cherry pick the increase of arable land in certain areas and ignore loss in other places, and ignore changes in weather, then you can paint a rosy picture.

jimkabrhel

They are at least going to admit their past models were way off and CO2 isn't nearly as powerful as they once thought.

But yea I don't expect these same people to all of a sudden say human aren't involved. That would be a bridge too far for now.

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#6 KC_Hokie
Member since 2006 • 16099 Posts
[QUOTE="KC_Hokie"][QUOTE="Master_Live"]Like the scientist that we are we continue to gather data and make adjusment to predictions when necessary. So is all good. HoolaHoopMan
I'm glad the IPCC is finally admitting what models have shown for years. It was the elephant in the room and they could only deny it for so long.

You mean scientists are revising models to include new data? Sounds pretty standard to me. For a second there I thought you said the IPCC was going to come out and say that global warming was a total hoax with humans having no impact. Now I can sleep easy tonight.

They are admitting their models of CO2 influence on the climate were way off and the increase since the last IPCC report is statistically insignificant.
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#7 KC_Hokie
Member since 2006 • 16099 Posts

[QUOTE="KC_Hokie"][QUOTE="HoolaHoopMan"] Oh, so some estimates were off, yet the trend of a warming Earth is still on par and directly correlated to human emissions. Good to know. HoolaHoopMan

No. Their models are wrong and the warming isn't unusual. That's what the report will say.

So you're willing to bet that the IPCC report will conclude that humans have no impact on climate change at all then?  Is that what you're saying?

They will admit past predictions have been wrong and CO2 isn't nearly as influential as predicted. They will admit they picked the highest estimates in the past and based their reports on it which resulted in doom and gloom.

They will likely predict more doom and gloom for the future, but will at least have to admit past mistakes. Their models simply didn't match observations and warming was statiscially insignificant.

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#8 KC_Hokie
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Like the scientist that we are we continue to gather data and make adjusment to predictions when necessary. So is all good. Master_Live
I'm glad the IPCC is finally admitting what models have shown for years. It was the elephant in the room and they could only deny it for so long.
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#9 KC_Hokie
Member since 2006 • 16099 Posts
[QUOTE="KC_Hokie"][QUOTE="HoolaHoopMan"]Just show us some graphs, interpret them incorrectly, drag the thread out a few hundreds posts, then go to bed. Sound good enough? HoolaHoopMan
Neat except this time the IPCC report will admit they were wrong and their estimates were too high.

Oh, so some estimates were off, yet the trend of a warming Earth is still on par and directly correlated to human emissions. Good to know.

No. Their models are wrong and the warming isn't unusual. That's what the report will say.
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#10 KC_Hokie
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Just show us some graphs, interpret them incorrectly, drag the thread out a few hundreds posts, then go to bed. Sound good enough? HoolaHoopMan
Neat except this time the IPCC report will admit they were wrong and their estimates were too high.