I believe that the attach rate there is only for Europe, but I could be wrong.
What does that mean? No clue. The 360 had an attach rate of 5:1 back in November of last year (believe its higher now). Around the time of that announcement, some analysts had mentioned that the attach rate was actually too high for various reasons. I'm not sure how they would view the PS3 attach rate either, though. MS was too high, maybe Sony's too low; typical "no-win" scenario.
I think what they would agree on, however, is that they would say for both systems that there simply aren't enough of them out there. They believe that it would be better to have more systems out there with a lower attach rate than to have a small user-base with a high one. For example:
1:6 @ 100 million systems = 600 million games sold
1:8 @ 50 million systems = 400 million games sold
1:12 @ 20 million systems = 240 million games sold
Why does this matter to us? Well, according to a story on Kotaku and citing numbers from Video Game Chartz (thanks Shaz!) the Wii has surpassed the 360 in terms of installed user base (I'm a little dubious of their numbers, though). Not bad for a system less than a year old. Amazing even. If the Wii can keep up a decent level of growth over the next few years and acheive a decent tie-in rate, its going to impact the high-end systems, like it or not, and will undoubtedly impact the next generation of hardware. How?
1) It will extend "last generation" a few more years by providing publishers with a relatively inexpensive (development-wise) and large (read: safer) market. Scoff at the minigames all you want, but you can't ignore something that size.
2) Next generation's hardware might not be so power-driven. Power is expensive and drives up prices considerably. A greater balance between power and price will be struck in all likelihood; we might not see anyone attempt to make another system like the PS3 (Blu-Ray, Cell and RSX), but rather choose to go a more 360-ish route (Xenon and Xenos, no change in optical media) at most. Of course, by then we'll have multi-layed HD discs and grotesquely huge but inexpensive harddrives too (1 terabyte, perhaps?).
3) A great emphasis on the total market thats presenting itself at the moment. New systems will retain the high-end features and services we see creeping into the 360 and PS3 (IPTV, DVR, online, etc), but instead of just courting the hard-core gamers and early adopters, will be pitched to the rest of the market in targeted advertising campaigns promoting and educating casual and non-traditional gamers all around.
For this generation I think we'll see a polarization of casual and hardcore games. The more hardcore, the more likely it'll only be on the PS3, 360 and PC for retail. The more casual or niche, the more likely it'll be a purchased download (all platforms) or on the Wii and PS2 for retail (possibly on the PSP and DS, also).
Thoughts?
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