I know it was originally announced as a trilogy. Given that AC is only a few months old and sequels tend to take 18-24 months to be released, I think it'll be a while before we hear anything.
I definitely liked Mass Effect better as it had a more detailed storyline and it felt like I was working towards a goal when doing the main missions. Oblivion's main quest line doesn't really seem like it's an important part of the game.
I'd say oblivion, there is more to do and I think it has greater replay value. Mass Effect was a great game, but all the side stuff was b-o-r-i-n-g whereas I never feel bored playing Oblivion.
I'd say BioShock but it has limited replay value. If you are going to be limited to one game for an extended period of time and you like RPGs I would recommend Oblivion.
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