Let me just preface by saying this is just my personal opinion, based on what I've seen during my 12 years in China, (I escaped back to my country back in July when the walls they built around our apartment building came down for a couple of days) synthesised with what's on China's plate in the short-term, their historical context, and with what I've seen on the news and heard from my friends who are still there.
It's very much already kicked off.
So first, Xi Jinping's historic third term. He changed the constitution of China to grant himself office for life, the first time China has seen that since Mao. It's kind of weird to think it, but within China, his elimination of office terms for himself was practically a secret. This landmark decision in China's history was uncharacteristically passed with absolutely no fanfare at all. Despite that, the typically politically-ignorant Chinese people are starting to notice, and question what's happening and why they weren't told. It feels like he's done something he knew he shouldn't have; it feels shady. There's a growing sentiment that Xi is seizing China for himself. “Bridge Man”, a protestor who stationed himself on a Beijing bridge the very day before Xi started his unprecedented third term, has become a hero among Chinese youth the likes of which hasn't been seen since Tank Man. Look up, “bridge man beijing" on YouTube to see the final stand that almost certainly cost him his life. He has inspired millions of young people to rebel, and be brave. That was just last week.
Second, there's a war with Taiwan bubbling. Xi promised in a speech in 2017 (?) that his term would see the “reunification of China”, which is a euphemism for the invasion and occupation of Taiwan. If that kicks off, Taiwan will fall easily, but it will also mean the end of China, and China knows it. Its biggest ally Russia, was utterly humiliated this year and their gaping military deficiencies exposed while doing almost the exact same thing with their own “Taiwan” back in February. With Iran also facing full-scale revolution, I bet Xi has never felt more isolated on the world stage. Recently the US has been “poking China in the Taiwan” as it were, with the intention of making Xi look weak, knowing he won't start a war he's fully aware he can't win. China's all about tough guy posturing, and the US knows it. The US's casual ignoring of China's apocalyptic threats regarding Taiwanese waterways and airspace is massively embarrassing Xi at home, knocking cracks in his towering façade.
Third, the general restrictions Chinese people have to live by, have been increasing by the week, especially since ~2018. People under 30 are hit especially hard. Half of them are faced with a life of street-sweeping and toilet-cleaning in exchange for a salary which represents a lifestyle the CCP themselves helped their parents and grandparents move out from under. The other half are facing a life of relentless study, then relentless monotony and ass-kissing, with ever-diminishing promises at the other end. Manufacturing is moving out of China due to the improved quality of life and thus higher expected salaries, thereby increasing the cost of living, but not wages. Basically all western TV shows have been blocked in China, and all depictions of western festivals erased from media. The concept of “western education” is also under explicit attack, as are fan clubs of any pop star or group. The rights of women in marriage have been eroded, as have their rights regarding house ownership. Constant pro-CCP government propaganda is riling up 20% of the population while frightening the rest. Foreigners have left China en masse, and private education institutions have been outlawed. Famous actresses, singers, athletes, and billionaires are disappearing or dying suddenly or without warning, and leaving China is harder than ever. All in the last few years.
Fourth, China's real estate sector, which accounts for an absolutely staggering ~30% of China's GDP, is crumbling under the weight of corruption. Their biggest investment bank, Evergrande, missed a debt payment this time last year which kick-started a gigantic snowball of distrust that resulted in them declaring insolvency in September. In China having a house is absolutely everything; you can't even get married without one, so a lot of statistics from that sector would blow your mind. But what Evergrande was doing was taking money in exchange for promises of apartments that didn't exist yet, then using that money to buy more plots, and using those plots to sell more promises, etc. It was the world's biggest pyramid scheme, worth 12% of the second biggest economy on earth. In all, 800,000 Chinese families lost absolutely everything, and when they formed a giant protest outside a bank in Henan, the government marched in an army of thugs to attack them. The government even tried to stop people travelling there, by turning red the COVID health code of everyone who had their savings stolen, thereby banning them from public travel, but it wasn't enough. The brutal videos spread a fair distance in China before being removed. Having the COVID tracking system abused like that for the CCPs own political/financial interests particularly angered people given how reluctantly people have come to accept it. Faith in China's real estate market is all but dead, and unlike the 2008 crisis in the US, the homes don't even exist, making it orders of magnitude worse.
Leading me to the final and biggest reason: The zero-COVID policy. This was Xi Jinping's golden chance to show the people of China that the Chinese way was better. To show them that if they put themselves to it, they could outclass, nay, utterly embarrass the west in their ability to coordinate and respond to crises. Simultaneously showcasing Xi's decisiveness and general leadership prowess, right as he was transitioning into his unprecedented third term. Also making a case for what can be accomplished if you're only willing to pass your freedom and autonomy into the CCP's capable hands. Back in 2020, there may have been a case for that. Now however, it's causing nothing less than full-blown rebellion across the country. People have gradually slid from warily excited at the novelty, to downright sick and angry at the totally unpredictable and seemingly blasé attitude with which their extremely fundamental freedoms are being tossed around. Shanghai was an absolute living nightmare. I could write a thousand words on that alone, but since then riots have broken out across dozens of Chinese cities, notably Guangzhou this week, in which thousands of factory workers took to the streets smashing buildings and flipping police cars, sick of being forced to pay rent and tax without being allowed to work. I have literally never seen a reaction by Han Chinese citizens this violent, not even during 1989's Tiananmen Square incident, and again it's all on YouTube. Many Chinese people are well aware that the west is back to business-as-usual and has been for over a year at this point, but are left to look on in envy with no end in sight. However Xi is in too deep at this point, and his ego is too big to admit his catastrophic mistake right at the beginning of his third term, so 1.4 billion people will continue to suffer. This has also had a monumentally negative effect on the Chinese economy. The CCP is trying their best to swallow the expense of their blunder themselves and not pass it on to the people, but as that starts to become untenable, people are getting angry. The CCP has replaced the two-child policy with a three-child one, but it's not moving the needle. Couples are having one kid, as that's all they can afford, putting China's future in even greater jeopardy as it struggles with the aftermath of its one-child policy, and the resulting explosion of economically-useless pensioners. There's also sweeping blackouts as the Chinese grid struggles to keep up with the entire workforce being at home all day with their air conditioners on. When you're locked in your home for a month with sporadic lighting you have lots of time to wonder if your government really knows what it's doing.
The Chinese people have been part of a brainwashing programme for a long time, and they've been led to believe the CCP are basically their wise and flawless guardian angels. All it takes is for the spell to be broken once, in a small way, for people's eyes to be opened, and to start thinking critically, and that's the beginning of the end for the CCP. That's already happened, and now, I believe, there's nothing left to do but watch the cards fall.
@Jarrkha: Yeah I think I'd agree with that. For anyone wondering, here's all the modern-era games which could arguably be described as 2D Dark Souls-likes. Metroidvania elements welcome. Roguelike elements not.
Dark Devotion, Death's Door, ENDER LILIES: Quietus Of The Knights, Minoria, Momodora: Reverie Under The Moonlight, TUNIC, The Last Faith, Vigil: The Longest Night, GRIME, Blasphemous, Death's Gambit: Afterlife, Eldest Souls, Salt & Sanctuary, Morbid: The Seven Acolytes.
I wish them good luck. It's astoundingly hard to be as good as Dark Souls, and the imitators often trip themselves by trying too hard to be like it. It's hard to understand how Dark Souls does it so effortlessly.
Just watched the original again this week for the first time since it came out, and while it's not an amazing movie, it's just so god damn enjoyable to watch, and John Constantine is just so god damn cool.
@rizenstrom: That's the only thing I can think of that would make a modicum of sense. Also I guess it makes people think it's a different/better product.
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