Table of Contents
1. Introduction to Congressional Elections
2. The Parties' Congressional Leaders
3. Senatorial Candidates
4. House Candidates
5. Gubernatorial Candidates
6. Poll Closing Times
7. States to Watch (Senatorial Elections)
8. Congressional Districts to Watch (House Elections)
9. States to Watch (Gubernatorial Elections)
10. On Exit Polls
11. Results & Timeline
1. Introduction to Congressional Elections
There are two assemblies within the United States Congress, those being the House of Representatives and the Senate. The House has 435 members; the Senate has 100. The entire House is up for re-election every two years (their terms being two years in length), while one-third of the Senate is up for re-election in the same time span (their terms being six years in length). Unlike presidential elections, where there are subtleties in the Electoral College that must be understood in order to understand the electoral procedure, congressional elections are much more straightforward: the members of a constituency vote for whom they wish to be represented by, and the candidate receiving the most votes is elected as their representative for that constituency.
The reasons for the differences between the two Congressional assemblies are largely due to the intended differences in functions between them. The House is intended to be a more direct representation of the people that represents the people's direct will at any given time - hence the smaller constituencies and the shorter terms. The Senate, on the other hand, is intended to be a broader representation of states which is more resilient to sudden shifts in popular opinion - hence the statewide constitutencies, longer terms, and staggered elections.
This year, 2010, is a midterm electoral cycle, meaning that, unlike 2008, there is no presidential ticket at the top to inherently nationalize and give a clear face to the electoral cycle. As such, these general elections typically see lower interest and commensurately lower turnout. However, as the Republican Party appears poised to make significant gains in this year's elections, and is likely to gain a majority of the seats in at least the House and possibly also the Senate, this election cycle certainly holds no less potential to be impactful towards the direction in which Washington once next year's Congress is sworn in.
2. The Parties' Congressional Leaders
Democratic Party (Majority Party)
Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader, Senator from Nevada
Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, Congresswoman from California's 8th Congressional District
Republican Party (Minority Party)
Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader, Senator from Kentucky
John Boehner, House Minority Leader, Congressman from Ohio's 8th Congressional District
3. Senatorial Candidates
In total, thirty-seven Senate seats are up for election this cycle, representing the cIass III seats in the Senate, plus three special elections due to mid-term vacancies. They can be found below in ascending order of state names (incumbent party candidate listed first).
Note: "inc." = "incumbent senator"
Alabama: Richard Shelby (R, inc.) vs. William Barnes (D)
Alaska: Joe Miller (R) vs. Scott McAdams (D) vs. Lisa Murkowski (R, inc.)*
Arizona: John McCain (R, inc.) vs. Rodney Glassman (D)
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln (D, inc.) vs. John Boozman (R)
California: Barbara Boxer (D, inc.) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)
Colorado: Michael Bennet (D, inc.) vs. Ken Buck (R)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R)
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) vs. Christine O'Donnell (R)
Florida: Marco Rubio (R) vs. Kendrick Meek (D) vs. Charlie Crist (I)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson (R, inc.) vs. Michael Thurmond (D)
Hawaii: Daniel Inouye (D, inc.) vs. Cam Cavasso (R)
Idaho: Mike Crapo (R, inc.) vs. Tom Sullivan (D)
Illinois: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs. Mark Kirk (R)
Indiana: Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Dan Coats (R)
Iowa: Charles Grassley (R, inc.) vs. Roxanne Conlin (D)
Kansas: Jerry Moran (R) vs. Lisa Johnston (D)
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R) vs. Jack Conway (D)
Louisiana: David Vitter (R, inc.) vs. Charlie Melançon (D)
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D, inc.) vs. Eric Wargotz (R)
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) vs. Robin Carnahan (D)
Nevada: Harry Reid (D, inc.) vs. Sharron Angle (R)
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R) vs. Paul Hodes (D)
New York (regular): Charles Schumer (D, inc.) vs. Jay Townsend (R)
New York (special): Kirsten Gillibrand (D, inc.) vs. Joe DioGuardi (R)
North Carolina: Richard Burr (R, inc.) vs. Elaine Marshall (D)
North Dakota: Tracy Potter (D) vs. John Hoeven (R)
Ohio: Rob Portman (R) vs. Lee Fisher (D)
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn (R, inc.) vs. Jim Rogers (D)
Oregon: Ron Wyden (D, inc.) vs. Jim Huffman (R)
Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak (D) vs. Pat Toomey (R)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint (R, inc.) vs. Alvin Greene (D)
South Dakota: John Thune (R, inc.) (no Democratic opponent)
Utah: Mike Lee (R) vs. Sam Granato (D)
Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D, inc.) vs. Len Britton (R)
Washington: Patty Murray (D, inc.) vs. Dino Rossi (R)
West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D) vs. John Raese (R)
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (D, inc.) vs. Ron Johnson (R)
*Lisa Murkowski is the incumbent senator for Alaska, but was defeated by Joe Miller in the Republican primary. She is running as a write-in candidate, and has promised to caucus with the Republicans if elected.
4. House Candidates
There's 435 elections here. No list for you.
5. Gubernatorial Candidates
There are also thirty-seven gubernatorial elections happening on election day, as well. They can be found below in ascending order of state names (incumbent party candidate listed first).
Note: "inc." = "incumbent governor"
Alabama: Robert Bentley (R) vs. Ron Sparks (D)
Alaska: Dan Parnell (R, inc.) vs. Ethan Berkowitz (D)
Arizona: Jan Brewer (R, inc.) vs. Terry Goddard (D)
Arkansas: Mike Beebe (D, inc.) vs. Jim Keet (R)
California: Meg Whitman (R) vs. Jerry Brown (D)
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Dan Maes (R) vs. Tom Tancredo (I)
Connecticut: Tom Foley (R) vs. Dan Malloy (D)
Florida: Rick Scott (R) vs. Alex Sink (D)*
Georgia: Nathan Deal (R) vs. Roy Barnes (D)
Hawaii: Duke Aiona (R) vs. Neil Abercrombie (D)
Idaho: Butch Otter (R, inc.) vs. Keith Allred (D)
Iowa: Chet Culver (D, inc.) vs. Terry Branstad (R)
Illinois: Pat Quinn (D, inc.) vs. Bill Brady (R)
Kansas: Tom Holland (D) vs. Sam Brownback (R)
Maine: Libby Mitchell (D) vs. Paul LePage (R) vs. Eliot Cutler (I)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley (D, inc.) vs. Bob Ehrlich (R)
Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D, inc.) vs. Charles Baker (R) vs. Timothy Cahill (I)
Michigan: Virg Bernero (D) vs. Rick Snyder (R)
Minnesota: Tom Emmer (R) vs. Mark Dayton (D) vs. Tom Horner (I)
Nebraska: Dave Heineman (R, inc.) vs. Mike Meister (D)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval (R) vs. Rory Reid (D)
New Hampshire: John Lynch (D, inc.) vs. John Stephen (R)
New Mexico: Diane Denish (D) vs. Susana Martinez (R)
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D) vs. Carl Paladino (R)
Ohio: Ted Strickland (D, inc.) vs. John Kasich (R)
Oklahoma: Jari Askins (D) vs. Mary Fallin (R)
Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) vs. Chris Dudly (R)
Pennsylvania: Dan Onorato (D) vs. Tom Corbett (R)
Rhode Island: John Robitalle (R) vs. Frank Caprio (D) vs. Lincoln Chafee (I)
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard (R) vs. Scott Heidepriem (D)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) vs. Vincent Sheheen (D)
Tennessee: Mike McWherter (D) vs. Bill Haslam (R)
Texas: Rick Perry (R, inc.) vs. Bill White (D)
Utah: Gary Herbert (R, inc.) vs. Peter Corroon (D)
Vermont: Brian Dubie (R) vs. Peter Shumlin (D)
Wisconsin: Tom Barrett (D) vs. Scott Walker (R)
Wyoming: Leslie Petersen (D) vs. Matt Mead (R)
*Florida has no incumbent party in this election. The outgoing governor is Charlie Crist, who left the Republican Party after having been elected as a Republican.
6. Poll Closing Times
Due to the different time zones and different legislation in each state, polls close at different times in each state, and sometimes even at different times in different parts of the same state. Consequently, results generally come in from eastern states before western states. A state-by-state map of poll closing times is as follows (all times Eastern):
The different poll closing times within a single state's boundaries are indicated geographically where possible. In New Hampshire, polls in townships close at 7, while polls in cities close at 8. In North Dakota, polls in the east close either at 8 or 9, with no real clear geographical division.
7. States to Watch (Senatorial Elections)
As with all election cycles, there are many elections in which one side is guaranteed victory, but there are also several that should be quite interesting to watch on election night:
California - Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer is one of the most liberal members of the Congressional assembly - she was the only Senator to both introduce and vote for a Congressional objection to the certification of Ohio's electoral college votes following the 2004 presidential election - and Republicans would love seeing her escorted out of office. For a while, that seemed like a distinct possibility, as businesswoman Carly Fiorina came within striking distance in the polls in mid-September, but her poll numbers have since deteriorated to the point that this state seems very likely out of reach.
Illinois - The race to the Illinois Senate seat has been an odd one. This one's a real nail-biter, but mostly because observers agree that the Democrat, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, and the Republican, Congressman Mark Kirk, are both terrible candidates. Given Illinois' blueness in recent elections, Republicans may be in for an excellent night if they can indeed flip this seat to their side - as well as deliver a symbolic blow to the Obama administration by taking control of Obama's Senate seat.
Nevada - This is a match-up that had Republicans licking their chops for quite a while, as the incumbent senator running for re-election here is none other than Harry Reid, the current Senate Majority Leader, and knocking him off would be a delicious symbolic victory. The Republican Party suffered an electoral misstep, however, when Nevada Assemblywoman Sharron Angle received the Republican nomination over other candidates considered more "electable". For a while it seemed like Reid had been handed back his Senate seat, but Angle has gained in the polls in the closing days of this election cycle, and now leads.
Pennsylvania - The road to the Pennsylvania Senate seat has been a terribly rocky one the whole way - first, Arlen Specter was almost assured defeat in a Republican primary against Congressman Pat Toomey, so he switched to the Democratic Party... but was defeated in the Democratic primary by Congressman Joe Sestak. For quite a while, Pat Toomey seemed all but assured victory, but polls have tightened quite considerably in the closing days of the election cycle. This is a must-win state for Republicans if they want to gain a majority of seats in the Senate.
Washington - Republican State Senator Dino Rossi lost gubernatorial bids in both 2004 and 2008, but that hasn't deterred him from making a senatorial bid against incumbent Senator Patty Murray. Given the changing climate, he's managed to turn this into a race once again, but Murray is now considered a fairly strong favorite to keep her seat. This is, however, a race that the Republicans will probably need to win if they want to gain a majority in the Senate.
West Virginia - When Joe Manchin, the popular governor of West Virginia, stepped into this race, most felt it was a guaranteed Democratic hold. However, his Republican opponent, businessman John Raese, has completely slashed and burned his once-formidable lead in the polls, and has turned this into a real race. This is a state that would be a huge win for the Republicans on their way to a majority.
8. Congressional Districts to Watch (House Elections)
No, seriously, there's 435 elections here. Stop asking. If you want to watch the House elections, then Nate Silver's got the hookup.
9. States to Watch (Gubernatorial Elections)
Much like the senatorial elections, there are many elections here in which one side is guaranteed victory, but there are also some that should be interesting to watch on election night:
Florida - Though Governor Charlie Crist is toast in his senatorial ambitions, his old seat remains in hot contention. Republican businessman Rick Scott and Democratic CFO of Florida Alex Sink are as tied as tied can possibly be in this race as we enter the last stretch towards Election Day, so this could very easily go in either direction.
Illinois - Lawdy, lawdy, lawdy, Illinois isn't looking as blue as it once was. Ex-Governor Rod Blagojevich was finally impeached by a vote of 114-1 for trying to sell the state's senate seat to the highest bidder, and his successor, then-Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn, is not finding the citizens of the state terribly amused with his party's antics. His opponent, State Senator Bill Brady, has consistently lead and will in all likelihood become the next Governor of Illinois.
Ohio - Poor Governor Ted Strickland. Elected with over 60% of the vote in 2006, he now finds himself in the political fight of his life, having consistently trailed Congressman John Kasich in the polls since July. Though he has somewhat closed in on Kasich in the polls as of late, it's very likely not to be enough, making this quite a likely Republican pickup.
Rhode Island - Republican ex-Senator Lincoln Chafee is back again, this time running as an independent against Democratic General Treasurer Frank Caprio and Republican John Robitaille, ex-Senior Adviser of Communications for outgoing Governor Don Carcieri. Caprio held the lead for much of the election cycle, but has recently suffered a major meltdown when he told Obama that he could take his endorsement and "shove it" after Obama declined to endorse him for governor. This is looking like a win for Chafee at this point, meaning that Rhode Island will have an independent governor inaugurated in 2011.
Vermont - The most liberal state in the union - former President George W. Bush and former Vice President Dick Cheney are wanted fugitives in two towns in the state - has nonetheless managed to elect Republican governors quite consistently. Incumbent Republican Governor Jim Douglas may be succeeded by Democratic State Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin - but he may also be succeeded by Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie, as this is one of the closest match-ups this election cycle, second only to Florida.
10. On Exit Polls
Many news networks such as CNN conduct exit polls during election day in an effort to gauge how the election is going to go before the votes are counted. These polls will not be mentioned here. The reason for this is that their prediction ability is tenuous at best, predicting a Kerry win in 2004. Reasons for this include the fact that they only take early voters into account in an ad hoc manner and the fact voters are free to refuse to be polled. Extreme caution is advised when attempting to make any conclusions about anything based on exit polls.
It should also be noted that any "leaked" exit polls before 5 PM Eastern are guaranteed fakes.
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