"Pride comes before the fall".
Every single major console manufacturer goes into a time of great pride, and then it all blows up in their faces catastrophically.
The reason the 1983 crash occurred was because Atari felt they on their own could move a number of cartridges which was equal to the number of systems out. They didn't think about the hundreds of third parties who were making 2600 games, neither did they think that maybe, just maybe, consumers were a bit more clever than to rush out and buy E.T., Custer's Revenge and other abominations to gaming.
Sega came next thanks to the whole Genesis add on fiasco of the early to mid 90's. Sega though that consumers would rush out to buy these peripherals to experience something "next-gen". Sega failed to realize that Night Trap wasn't the future of gaming, and the events that occurred from 1992-1995 was one of the major causes for Sega being unable to carry on with the Saturn and Dreamcast later on.
Nintendo's boasting that the N64 would change the world of gaming thanks to its then revolutionary stick. However, the use of cartridges meant that pretty much no games came out compared to the Playstation, and Nintendo then suffered again with the Gamecube, thanks to consumer disinterest caused by the N64.
Sony is currently going through its "fall", as after two perfect generations, Sony is now being pinned to the wall, and beaten up by Microsoft and Nintendo this gen.
Before I start bashing MS, let me just state that I love the original Xbox, and the 360, so now that that's out of the way, let's start.
While 2007 has been an excellent year for the 360, the rest of the decade is starting to look a bit grim in my eyes.
Microsoft will go through their "fall" soon, for a number of reasons:
Firstly, by the end of 2008, no third party game will have "Only on Xbox 360" slapped on it. Doing that would be stupid as they will be missing out on the PS3 market, which will be a vital source of income in years to come. Bioware, Bizarre and Bungie have either left MS Studios, or been bought out by EA and Activision. That means that the Bioware RPGs, PGR and eventually Halo will be on other systems. Do you think Gears of War 3, or Ninja Gaiden 3, or Dead or Alive 5 will only be on the 360? I sure as hell don't, as console exclusivity from third parties will soon be extinct.
You may retaliate with "well, what about the first party stuff", but what first party stuff? We here almost nothing from Rare, and MS themselves have pretty much no living IPs after the original Xbox. Where's Crimson Skies 2? Voodoo Vince 2? etc. Sony have many first party studios, pumping out Wipeout, God of War, and many others, and this will define the PS3 in the coming years.
Next point, the red ring of death. The fact that this problem still exists is shocking, and if they don't eradicate it soon enough, it will be linked to them forever, just the same as with the NES, PS1 and PS2.
Next, while MS still have fewer SKUs for the 360than Sony does for the PS3, they're catching up, and fall into the same trap of confusing more casual consumers, and repelling them.
While this is a minor point, the fact that XBL has been down for over two weeks, now means that the PS3, and even the Wii have better online functionality at this current moment in time. I hope that's a huge embarrassment for MS as it will teach them. Also, charging for XBL is now archaic, as every other platform, including handhelds offers free online gaming.
The final point is the whole DVD format wars. Blu-Ray is now the exclusive format in which Paramount will produce all of its DVDs. This is a massive blow against MS, as this will also probably lead to more studios switching over to both formats, or even just Blu-Ray. If Blu-Ray does become the standard, then PS3 sales will rocket and Sony have to be congratulated for at least doing something right this generation. MS will then be left with "HD-DVD", which no one will want, and another blow to their reputation with the 360.
MS are going to face some major issues for the next few years, and I worry about the recent rumours about the next Xbox, as it could lead to MS' "fall".
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