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#1 ScrollingLayers
Member since 2015 • 632 Posts

Nintendo is in a tough spot no matter what, but I agree with this:

@reavis86 said:

If they had to wait until 2017 to launch to insure an artic islands chip that outperforms tonga at a lower tdp then I could see them waiting until 2017, but as far as timing goes, 2016 needs to be when it releases to keep the NX from going up against ps5 and XB(4). If 2020 is on mark for ps5, then Nintendo should be fine with a 2021 release for the nx successor. Launches arent too great anyway, in 2020 they could have some killer "swansong" releases for the nx that are goin up against launch ps5 games. You have to look at the future roadmap. You cant keep waiting, that would continually cripple future generations for nintendo.

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#2 ScrollingLayers
Member since 2015 • 632 Posts

@LauriAJ said:

Well, there's always the chance that the consoles WILL be obsolete by 2020 and NX will in fact be just a service for Nintendo.

Chances of that are slim to none.

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#3 ScrollingLayers
Member since 2015 • 632 Posts

While there's definitely a chance Microsoft could launch its next-gen in late 2018, I think the most likely outcome is 2019.

Also, as many others here have been saying, which is also widely accepted, neither Microsoft nor Sony will risk launching bleeding edge hardware again like the Xbox 360 in 2005 and PS3 in 2006. We all know that for 2013, the PS4 and Xbox One were both very conservative pieces of hardware. They both had weak CPUs and midrange GPUs. They both had plenty of RAM given the predictions in the few years leading upto their announcement, where most thought new consoles would each get 2 to 4 GB RAM, not the 8GB they got.

Going forward, I don't expect next generation consoles to get another 16x increase in RAM (512 MB last gen to 8 GB this gen is 16x). I think next gen will probably get a 4x increase in RAM, much better CPU (some flavor of AMD Zen) and powerful but not bleeding edge GPUs with high bandwidth memory.

I think it's possible next gen consoles, if they launch in 2019, but no later than fall 2020, might be slightly less conservative compared to PS4/Xbox One in 2013, but nothing like what Xbox 360/PS3 were in 2005/2006.

Next Xbox and PS5, the best hardware that can be done at $400 using ~180 watts and no more than a $50 loss on each console sold. Xbox 360 and PS3 were both well over 200 watts, and sold at a $100+ / $200+ loss.

I think Microsoft's next Xbox will have full support for Oculus Rift CV1 and CV2 (which will be out by then, and PS5 will support second gen PSVR. These will be totally optional and will not replace normal gaming on an HD or UHD 4K TV with normal controllers. Yes they'll both use optical media, because game streaming over the internet / cloud gaming as the *only* way to play will not happen in 4-5 years because internet speeds and infrastructure will not be there in the U.S/ / NA and probably not Europe either. We won't see the kind of changes required to support digital-only / streaming / cloud based consoles for at least 10 to 15 years. Especially when large segments of the NA population does not have access to ultra high bandwidth connections. Microsoft and Sony would not limit themselves to a small percentage of the population that might have the bandwidth to do digital only. Besides, game streaming has a long way to go before its good enough. PSNow is barely passable and Nvidia's GRID is only somewhat better.

So, conventional game consoles that have local processing done in the box at home, along with optical media, are not going to disappear next gen.

What does need to disappear are horribly broken, incomplete games, season passes, excessive micro transactions. among other things that have plagued this gen from the start.

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#4 ScrollingLayers
Member since 2015 • 632 Posts

@Ovirew: It's not as if the next Xbox and PS5 are right around the corner, they're not. I personally don't expect 9th gen consoles to launch in the west before November 2019, and the rest of the world until 2020. While there is a chance Microsoft could force the start by launching Xbox One's successor in 2018, the more likely situation is neither Microsoft nor Sony will launch until 2019, which is still 4 years away.

Right around the launch of PS4 and Xbox One in Fall 2013, some of the the biggest third party companies, their CEOs, said they expected this generation to last 5 or 6 years before another generation of consoles would come. EA boss in particular, as well as Ubisoft. And even PlayStation UK boss said it was possible this generation could be a bit shorter than last gen. Also, in 2014 and this year, we've heard AMD's brass say they are working to win semi-custom chip contracts from Sony and Microsoft in advance of when AMD thinks it would need to have to work on designs for future consoles.

Regarding what consumers and gamers should expect as far as support for the current PS4 and Xbox One, it's probably going to be a total of 10 years. However, as we've seen before, with Xbox 360, PS3 and PS2 before that, 10 years does not mean 10 years without a successor coming out in year 6, 7 or 8.

Again, PS4 and Xbox One came out in 2013, but that doesn't mean, even with a decade of support, there won't be next gen consoles until 2023.

Last gen, PS3 and Xbox 360 went 7 and 8 years, respectively, before new systems came out. I feel that this generation will only be slightly shorter, by about 1 year. So by 2019 or 2020, I'm pretty confident next gen consoles will be launching, with North America and Europe getting them first, Japan and the rest of the world in 2020.

Back to Nintendo and the NX. They have this window during 2016-2017 to reveal and launch the NX, and it probably will be more than one system given that Iwata said the aim of merging their handheld and console R&D divisions was not to make a single game machine but make transferring software/games between handheld and console much, much easier. Lets assume that any and all NX-based hardware gets released between Q4 2016 and Q4 2017. That would give Nintendo more time than Wii U had before Sony and Microsoft launched PS4 and Xbox One. That was only 1 year. Nintendo is likely to have 2 or 3 years this time which is two or three times as much time, before PS5 and Xbox One's successor.

Think everything I'm saying is pretty reasonable given history, as well as the current situation of Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft.

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#5 ScrollingLayers
Member since 2015 • 632 Posts

NX needs to be at least a bit beyond PS4 in terms of power. If it's only on par with XBone, it'll have a tougher time.

Nintendo isn't going to get 3rd party devs and gamers excited about NX in 2016 or 2017 with something equal to XBone,

Once NX launches, it'll have just a couple of years on the market before the next Xbox and PS5 are out (in 2018 or 2019).

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#6  Edited By ScrollingLayers
Member since 2015 • 632 Posts

We will have next gen consoles in either Fall 2018 or Fall 2019.

An older Star Citizen trailer on high-end PC

Loading Video...

No doubt, both Sony and Microsoft would want to be able to market this kind of experience with those sort of graphics, for next gen consoles.

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#7  Edited By ScrollingLayers
Member since 2015 • 632 Posts

If we're talking PS4 and Xbox One reaching Star Citizen graphics, obviously no.

But given that Microsoft pretty much confirmed there will be another Xbox, via Phil Spencer's recent comments, as well as the inevitable PS5, with both systems expected before the end of decade, then yes. I would even be bold enough to predict that a far more complete (but ever-evolving) version of Star Citizen will be a launch title for the next gen consoles.

Microsoft & Sony would no doubt both want to be able to market this kind of experience for next gen:

Loading Video...

New video:

Loading Video...

Given that EVE: Valkyrie is coming to PlayStation VR on PS4....

Loading Video...

Certainly we will see Star Citizen on PS5.

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#8  Edited By ScrollingLayers
Member since 2015 • 632 Posts

http://acecombatskies.com/topic/35215-new-famitsu-interview-1217/page-2

The Famitsu interview said

The Feelings Evoked by Numbering for the First Time in Eight Years

The December 10th, 2015 issue of Famitsu had the scoop on info about "Ace Combat 7." In the article, we had an interview with Mr. Kazutoki Kono, but we have posted here the full version, including a portion of the article which could not be printed.

--This article is titled Numbering for the First Time in Eight Years, but could you please explain the concept?

Kazutoki Kono (below: Kono): "Numbered title" would express the meaning better, so more properly the concept is "numbered Ace Combat title." It's what users who were cheering us on were always hoping we would work on next.

--Isn't there always a subtitle under the title?

Kono: For this release, the number one goal was to show everyone how this latest release was a return to the numbered games, so in short we decided that the main title "Ace Combat 7" would illustrate that the best. The necessity of a subtitle is currently being considered. Please stay tuned for a further announcement. Also, I think the numbering alone was enough to make our consumers happy.

--I see. The impact of the PV was excellent as well.

Kono: About that, the thing about the PV is that it wasn't pre-rendered, the movement of the people and the planes, the flow of the clouds, everything was rendered on actual hardware. We are pursuing three goals for this game, and one of them is rendering three dimensional clouds to properly portray the sky. Before then we had naturally used stuff like pictures of clouds in a skybox to get across the right idea. For this game we've implemented three dimensional clouds, so if you try to fly through a specific cloud, the cloud will actually exist, right there in front of you, since we've created the map structure as two layers of sky and land.

--You think flying through clouds would create a realistic feeling experience.

Kono: Flying around the periphery of a cumulonimbus and flying through the middle of a cloud feels natural and enjoyable. We've also taken into consideration things like differing airflow and weather conditions inside and outside of a cloud, and topographical effects as well. The wispiness of the underside of the cloud and their appearance from ground level will also be apparent. To get in your plane and behold a sea of clouds which unfurls out to the very horizon - the world of the sky: in this game, actually depicting such a thing (without the use of illusions) will be possible.

--That sounds like a singular experience, I'm looking forward to it. Could you talk some about other aspects?

Kono: Another aspect we're pursuing is the fun of "playing airplane." I'm not talking about becoming more realistic in some way, I mean special weapons and maneuvers.

--When you talk about maneuvers, do you mean that the cobra and kulbit techniques will be possible? The Su-30 in the PV did something like that…

Kono: Yep. I've talked with the current director Hamanaka (Mr. Takahiro Hamanaka), and rather than anyone being able to bring certain death with the punch of a single button1, we're going in the direction of skilled people being able to take full advantage of maneuvering to make stuff like that happen. The third aspect is "improving how you defeat enemies." We are pursuing those three aspects in the campaign mode.

--That sounds like fun! Incidentally, "Assault Horizon" and "Infinity" both take place in the real world, but what about this one?

Kono: The numbered games take place in a fictional world. That said, since over ten years have passed since the Playstation 2 era, we want it to be approachable to a new audience who have not touched the series before.

--The main setting is a continent which has appeared before in the series?

Kono: That it is. Where precisely, I cannot yet say. (wry smile)

--If one were to build a space elevator, I hear it'd be best to have it somewhere near the equator.

Kono: I shall leave the details to your imagination. Haha.

--Hehe. Even so, the space elevator left quite an impact.

Kono: It's representative of the game. It's not real, but it's not within the realm of fantastical sci-fi either. A Japanese architectural firm is currently planning one, and as a matter we were actually working on the game when we heard about it.

--You mean it's representative of something that if it were to really exist, it wouldn't be particularly odd. The part of the PV with the bungee jumping wasn't from the top, but about how high up was it?

Kono: The person in the PV is wearing something like a spacesuit, so it's a height that would be intolerable without it. Anyway, it's slightly wrong to say "the structure's height," but it reaches 100 thousand kilometers from the surface of the earth to its furthest point (it extends to a space station beyond, from which it derives its centrifugal force).

--That's certainly the largest structure in the series. The part closest to the earth sprawls out like the Tokyo Tower, but…

Kono: Since it serves as an entrance into space, I expect the area on the surface would have container terminals and other such facilities, so that was the basic premise.

--It looks like a fighter should be able to pull through there. I'd want to try it, anyway.

Kono: Yep, you can. We were thinking of it in terms of aerial shooter design too.

--I'm curious about the massive airborne aircraft carrier too, but how would that exist?

Kono: The fictional plane the dev team calls the FAS.

--The one that launches a mass amount of UAVs.

Kono: A "drone carrier" has some utility. A space elevator would be vulnerable in case of emergency, so it acts as a guardian angel, orbiting the surrounding area.

--So the FAS isn't based on any existing design. What's the motive behind it?

Kono: One of the themes of the game will be how unmanned aircraft will shape the future, so we included the design to that end. By the way, we had Kanno (Masato Kanno, art director for much of the series) handle the design work. I love the feeling of functionality his designs convey despite having such simple lines, and like the Arkbird and Stonehenge, the FAS is one of Kanno's original designs.2 He'll be the art director for 7.

--I see. It certainly resembles the Arkbird which appeared in 5, in that it's a very curvy design.3 We haven't talked about real airframes yet, so first of all, the F-22, F/A-18F, and Su-30 are confirmed. This is the series premiere for the Su-30, isn't it?

Kono: It is. My personal favorites are the Su-27, Su-37, and Su-35, but I asked the staff "how about the Su-30," and up to this point the series has been full of single-seat Flankers, so I thought why not go with a two-seater?

--I see. The F-22 and F/A-18F are big-league fighters.

Kono: Since the F-22 is the epitome of a fighter, even to anyone who has no interest in fighters and has only seen them in movies and stuff, its position as the protagonist's plane5 befits it. Regarding the F-22's flat planform for stealth, it's removed from the appearance of more traditional fighters like the F/A-18F as well.

--I'm curious about other planes as well. I have to imagine the F-15 and A-10 are pretty much locked in.

Kono: Pretty much. We've planned for a lineup befitting a numbered game. New hardware has since been introduced, so rather than reusing what's been in the series thus far, we're taking care with it.

--You mentioned content for Playstation VR support, but I expect we'll be able to look around and see the details in the cockpit.

Kono: Absolutely you will. Lots of people go "It looks like I'm flying!" when trying VR support, and we're trying to make content based around flying the free skies easy to intuitively grasp, so the decision to support VR was very quick, since there are so many advantages to it. That said, there are also plenty of technical challenges, and the dev team is currently evaluating and working them out.6

--I look forward to it. What will the campaign mode be like?

Kono: To make the campaign, it's necessary for the scenario to have been worked out as the missions are being built. We're currently at the stage where we're proceeding with mission design.

--Are there many on the production team who have worked on the series before?

Kono: Director Katabuchi's (animation director Mr. Sunao Katabuchi) involvement, continuing from his work on AC04 and AC5, has already been confirmed. Itomi (Mr. Kousuke Itomi) is also involved extensively in the scenario and script. I look forward to hammering out the scenario alongside Katabuchi. I believe everyone will find it to their satisfaction, so please look forward to it.

--I wonder who will be responsible for the BGM.

Kono: As it's always been with this series, I have requested it of Kobayashi (Mr. Keiki Kobayashi).

--That lineup will make the old fans happy. Lastly, do you have any message you'd like to tell the Japanese fans?

Kono: As with 4, 5, and Zero, rest assured that we (Project Aces) aim to make Ace Combat cool and fun. We take great pride in being one of the few Japanese IPs to have taken off across the world. Please look forward to it!

--

Lastly, printed here are messages from director Sunao Katabuchi and Keiki Kobayashi.

Sunao Katabuchi: Ace Combat 4 and 5 are memorable to me for being the tipping point in my own career. I've been able to return to that same world once again. Kono and the main staff from the old days have come together to once again attend meetings, and I've already been able to collaborate with them on the outline of the story. I welcome the newcomers, and I would like to express to all of you my gratitude.7

Keiki Kobayashi: Hi everyone, I'm Keiki Kobayashi. Have you taken a look at Ace Combat 7? I wonder what kind of drama awaits you flying around those blue skies freely, piercing the clouds. I'm writing some very fine music for this game, so by all means look forward to it.

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#9  Edited By ScrollingLayers
Member since 2015 • 632 Posts

March 2007 announcement of Ace Combat 6 Fires of Liberation exclusive to Xbox 360:

Fast forward a generation, to PS4 -- Now we're talkin'

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#10 ScrollingLayers
Member since 2015 • 632 Posts

People tend to either love or hate the look of the NEC SuperGrafx.