Table of Contents
1. The Presidential Candidates
2. The Electoral College
3. Senatorial Candidates
4. Gubernatorial Candidates
5. Poll Closing Times
6. States to Watch (Presidential Election)
7. States to Watch (Senatorial Elections)
8. States to Watch (Gubernatorial Elections)
9. On Exit Polls
10. Results & Timeline
1. The Presidential Candidates
Republican Ticket (Incumbent Party)
John McCain, Senator from Arizona
Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska
Democratic Ticket (Challenging Party)
Barack Obama, Senator from Illinois
Joe Biden, Senator from Delaware
2. The Electoral College
Within the American system of presidential elections, each state is allocated a number of electoral votes equal to its representation in Congress: two for each state's two senators plus one per each state's representatives. This allocation is more or less proportional to each state's population, but due to the two baseline electoral votes for the state's senators, states with a smaller population have a larger electoral-vote-per-capita number. Each state appoints a number of electors equal to its allocated electoral votes, which then congregate to vote for who the next president and vice president should be.
In theory, states are allowed to make this appointment in any way of their choosing, but in practice, they are appointed based on the popular vote winner in each state. The only two exceptions to this rule are Maine and Nebraska; these two states appoint electors based on the popular vote winner in each congressional district, plus two more for the popular vote winner in the state at large. This means that it is theoretically possible for the electoral votes in those two states to be split, but in practice they are homogenous enough for that event to have never yet occurred in a presidental election.
A candidate must attain a majority of the electoral votes in order to become the next president or vice president. There are currently 538 electoral votes in total, meaning that a candidate must attain 270 to win. In the event of a 269-269 tie (which is certainly a possibility), the House delegations from each state must vote for whom should be president, and the Senate must vote for whom should be vice president.
For the purposes of the 2008 election, the state-by-state electoral vote allocation is as follows:
3. Senatorial Candidates
In addition to the presidential election, there are also Senate and House elections occurring at the same time. While there are 432 House seats up for election, there is a small enough number of Senate races for me to list in this space. They can be found below in ascending order of state names (incumbent party candidate listed first).
Note: "inc." = "incumbent senator"
Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R, inc.) vs. Vivian Figures (D)
Alaska: Ted Stevens (R, inc.) vs. Mike Begich (D)
Arkansas: Mike Pryor (D, inc.) (No Republican opponent)
Colorado: Bob Schaeffer (R) vs. Mike Udall (D)
Delaware: Joe Biden (D, inc.) vs. Christine O'Donnell (R)
Georgia: Saxby Chambliss (R, inc.) vs. Jim Martin (D)
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) vs. Larry LaRocco (D)
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D, inc.) vs. Steve Sauerberg (R)
Iowa: Tom Harkin (D, inc.) vs. Christopher Reed (R)
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R, inc.) vs. Jim Slattery (D)
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R, inc.) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D)
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D, inc.) vs. John Kennedy (R)
Maine: Susan Collins (R, inc.) vs. Tom Allen (D)
Massachusetts: John Kerry (D, inc.) vs. Jeff Beatty (R)
Michigan: Carl Levin (D, inc.) vs. Jack Hoogendyk (R)
Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R, inc.) vs. Al Franken (D)
Mississippi (regular): Thad Cochran (R, inc.) vs. Erik Fleming (D)
Mississippi (special): Roger Wicker (R, inc.) vs. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Montana: Max Baucus (D, inc.) vs. Bob Kelleher (R)
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R, inc.) vs. Kay Hagan (D)
Nebraska: Mike Johanns (R) vs. Scott Kleeb (D)
New Hampshire: John Sununu (R, inc.) vs. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D, inc.) vs. Richard Zimmer (R)
New Mexico: Steve Pearce (R) vs. Tom Udall (D)
Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R, inc.) vs. Andrew Rice (D)
Oregon: Gordon Smith (R, inc.) vs. Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D, inc.) vs. Bob Tingle (R)
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R, inc.) vs. Bob Conley (D)
South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D, inc.) vs. Joel Dykstra (R)
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R, inc.) vs. Robert Tuke (D)
Texas: John Cornyn (R, inc.) vs. Rick Noriega (D)
Virginia: Jim Gilmore (R) vs. Mike Warner (D)
West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller (D, inc.) vs. Jay Wolfe (R)
Wyoming (regular): Mike Enzi (R, inc.) vs. Al Hamburg (D)
Wyoming (special): John Barasso (R, inc.) vs. Nick Carter (D)
4. Gubernatorial Candidates
Finally, there are also a number of gubernatorial elections happening on election day, as well. They can be found below in ascending order of state names (incumbent party candidate listed first).
Note: "inc." = "incumbent governor"
Delaware: Jack Markell (D) vs. William Lee (R)
Indiana: Mitch Daniels (R, inc.) vs. Jill Long-Thompson (D)
Missouri: Kenny Hulshof (R) vs. Jay Nixon (D)
Montana: Brian Schweitzer (D, inc.) vs. Roy Brown (R)
New Hampshire: John Lynch (D, inc.) vs. Joe Kenney (R)
North Carolina: Bev Perdue (D) vs. Pat McCrory (R)
North Dakota: John Hoeven (R, inc.) vs. Tim Mathern (D)
Utah: John Huntsman (R, inc.) vs. Bob Springmeyer (D)
Vermont: Jim Douglas (R, inc.) vs. Gaye Symington (D) vs. Anthony Pollina (I)
Washington: Christine Gregoire (D, inc.) vs. Dino Rossi (R)
West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D, inc.) vs. Russ Weeks (R)
5. Poll Closing Times
Due to the different time zones and different legislation in each state, polls close at different times in each state, and sometimes even at different times in different parts of the same state. Consequently, results generally come in from eastern states before western states. A state-by-state map of poll closing times is as follows (all times Eastern):
The different poll closing times within a single state's boundaries are indicated geographically where possible. In New Hampshire, polls in townships close at 7, while polls in cities close at 8. In North Dakota, polls in the east close either at 8 or 9, with no real clear geographical division.
6. States to Watch (Presidential Election)
As in any American election, there are a number of states whose results may be observed in an effort to forecast which candidate is likely to have the better night. A list of such states is as follows, in ascending order of poll closing times:
Indiana - Though the Hoosier State has not given its electoral votes to a Democrat since the landslide of 1964, its polls have been surprisingly close for much of the 2008 election season. If it is deemed too close to call when polls close, that will be a good sign for Obama; conversely, if it's called shortly after polls close (as was the case in 2004), that will be good news for McCain. Obama is not likely to win the state, but a close race here would indicate that Obama's machine will likely have been well-oiled elsewhere in the country, as well.
Florida - Though Florida is not likely to be a tipping-point state, it has nonetheless been close in the polls, with Obama maintaining a marginal lead. It could be an early harbinger of problems on either side of the aisle; if Obama looks like he could take it, that might well spell early doom for McCain, whereas if McCain walks away with it, Obama might be in trouble. Definitely an early state to watch.
Virginia - Though the Old Dominion, like Indiana, has not voted for a Democrat for president since '64, Obama has been surprisingly strong in the polls in this state, although the race has tightened in the last week of the election. Nonetheless, Obama has consistently led here in the polls since the end of September and still maintains a lead. If Obama takes Virginia, McCain will be hard pressed to answer that loss with a sufficient win of his own. If McCain takes Virginia, however, that could very well be a sign of serious trouble for Obama, as that will indicate that McCain will likely have considerably outperformed his polling average.
North Carolina - Much like Indiana, Obama will probably not win North Carolina (having not voted Democratic since Carter in '76), but its closeness could give hints regarding how other states might go as well.
Ohio - For its fifth straight election, the polls out of Ohio indicate that it's a close state. The Buckeye State is one of McCain's must-win states - if McCain loses Ohio, there is little conceivable way he will be the next president. If Obama is leading in Ohio as its vote counting comes to a close, McCain will be in for a long night; conversely, if McCain walks away with it as the results come in, Obama should start sweating.
Missouri - The Show-Me State has been a back-and-forth rollercoaster in the polls, although at this point the edge is given to McCain. Great care should be taken when watching its results, however - St. Louis and Kansas City tend to lag behind the rest of the state in terms of timely reporting of their polls, and they account for a significant portion of the Democratic base in the state. Many news networks called Missouri for Hillary Clinton before the cities fully reported, and they ended up putting Obama over the top, much to the networks' embarassment. McCain will need to be well ahead at around 50% precincts reporting if he is to ultimately win the state.
Pennsylvania - John McCain has put a great deal of his eggs in the basket of Pennsylvania as far as winning the election goes, and has launched an all-out push to paint the Keystone State red. His efforts may not have been in vain, as well, as polls have shown the race tightening, with Obama's polling average down to 7% from a high of 14% in mid-October. This is a must-win state for Obama; if there is any indication at all that McCain might win Pennsylvania, Barack Obama's presidential hopes will be in dire straits.
Colorado - Last giving its electoral votes to a Democrat in 1992, Colorado was expected to be a turbulent battleground state in 2008. All indications from the polls, however, have been that Obama appears to be running away with the state stronger than expected. If Obama can win Colorado, that will be a good indication for his chances. If McCain keeps the state close, however, that will, again, likely indicate that he is outperforming his polling average, which will be bad news for Obama, especially since much of the state has already voted, prior to the inevitable tightening of the polls.
7. States to Watch (Senatorial Elections)
Many of the senatorial elections are not very interesting, with the incumbent party all but assured victory, but there are a number that do not follow that grain:
Alaska - Under normal conditions, a senator who has served a state for 40 years does not need to do anything whatsoever to get re-elected. Ted Stevens' situation, however, is anything but normal, considering that he was convicted of seven felonies nine days before Election Day. Polls since his conviction have indicated that challenger Mike Begich is all but certain to unseat Stevens now for a Democratic pickup.
Colorado - Though polls were tight earlier in the season, challenger Mike Udall has opened up a significant lead on Republican Bob Schaeffer, and this now looks like another likely Democratic pickup.
Georgia - Defying all conventional wisdom, Jim Martin is within low single digits of incumbent Saxby Chambliss. If African-American turnout for Obama ends up being higher than anticipated, this is a possibility for a surprise upset victory.
Kentucky - In 2004, the Republican Party defeated Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota. Now, in 2008, the Democrats are out for revenge, and have been aggressively targeting Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's seat. McConnell leads in the polls, however, and a Democratic upset appears unlikely at this moment, though the race is liable to be close.
Louisiana - Incumbent Mary Landrieu's approval rating is not that hot, and as such, this seat represents the Republican's best opportunity for a pickup. The polls have not gone their way as election day nears, however, and at this point a Republican victory appears to be a long shot.
Minnesota - In an odd twist, comedian Al Franken defeated Mike Ciresi (a far more "safe" candidate) to become the Democratic candidate in Minnesota. This race remains close to this day, although incumbent Norm Coleman remains the favorite. This race will very likely be close, however.
Mississippi (special) - Though Thad Cochran is undeniably safe, the special election to fill the remainder of Trent Lott's term in the Senate has proven to be more of a race. For a brief period challenger Ronnie Musgrove (previously the governor of Mississippi) appeared within striking distance, but he has fallen behind as election day drew closer. Currently a long shot for Democrats, but probably worth looking at nonetheless.
North Carolina - Once considered likely unbeatable, incumbent Elizabeth Dole's position has steadily weakened as the election dragged on. Kay Hagan is now favored by the polls to win this race, which would be a Democratic pickup.
New Hampshire - John Sununu is the youngest member of the Senate, but his youthful vigor has not helped him in the polls. Challenger Jeanne Shaheen has increased her lead in recent times, and is now favored to beat Sununu for another Democratic pickup.
New Mexico - This race wasn't on anyone's radar until incumbent senator Pete Domenici decided not to run for re-election. Democratic candidate Tom Udall, oddly enough the second Udall to run for Senate this year, is now the runaway favorite in this race, and this is a very likely Democratic pickup.
Oregon - Incumbent senator Gordon Smith has taken the unusual tactic of tying himself strongly to the other party's presidential nominee this year, but challenger Jeff Merkley nonetheless leads in the polls. Though this race is liable to be close, this is another very possible Democratic pickup.
Virginia - The Democratic candidate, Mark Warner, left office as governor in 2005 immensely popular, with approval ratings nearing 70%. His lead in the polls over Republican Jim Gilmore looks awfully insurmountable, and this is probably the likeliest Democratic pickup of the election season.
8. States to Watch (Gubernatorial Elections)
There aren't that many gubernatorial elections, and many of the ones that do exist are not very interesting, with the incumbent party all but assured victory. There are a few to watch, however:
Missouri - Challenger Jay Nixon has run away with this race, according to polls, and is now almost assured victory, making this race a likely Democratic pickup.
North Carolina - The polls in this race have been tight for a very long time, swinging between Democratic and Republican leads for quite a while. This is the Republicans' best chance for a gubernatorial pickup, as Bev Perdue is slightly behind in the majority of polls. Definitely a race to watch if one is interested in gubernatorial elections.
Washington - It's 2004 all over again, with now-incumbent Christine Gregoire facing Republican Dino Rossi once again. Like North Carolina, this race has been tight for a long time, although Gregoire maintains a very slight edge. Another race to keep watch on, as this is another good opportunity for a Republican pickup.
9. On Exit Polls
Many news networks such as CNN conduct exit polls during election day in an effort to gauge how the election is going to go before the votes are counted. These polls will not be mentioned here. The reason for this is that their prediction ability is tenuous at best, predicting a Kerry win in 2004. Reasons for this include the fact that they only take early voters into account in an ad hoc manner and the fact voters are free to refuse to be polled. Extreme caution is advised when attempting to make any conclusions about anything based on exit polls.
It should also be noted that any "leaked" exit polls before 5 PM Eastern are guaranteed fakes.
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