A Tale of 11 Broken Xbox 360s

[QUOTE="Vandalvideo"][QUOTE="nnavidson"]It's improbable that it would happen to you. It's probable that if you sell 10 million systems it will happen to 5 people.nnavidson

5 out of 10 million means that if out of 10 million attempts you should have success 5 times.

It's just like the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads should happen once for every two attempts. It's the mathmatical odds,

[QUOTE="Kinitari"]Also, maybe you need to stop focusing on the choice of words (between probable and possible) and focus on the question I asked you? Vandalvideo

Reported from where? As there are no official numbers, those numbers are as legit as the numbers that claim that 2,500 360's get sent to be repaired daily (and thats in the UK alone). Or the Gamespot manager who says there is a 30% return for faulty 360 consoles.

Who's to say that the refurbished consoles have a 30% or a 20% or a 50% fail rate? Odd's are they have a higher fail rate considering the fact that they were once already broken, so considering all these factors - who the heck knows what the numbers are? I am just going off of what has been given to me.

[QUOTE="Vandalvideo"][QUOTE="Kinitari"]Also, maybe you need to stop focusing on the choice of words (between probable and possible) and focus on the question I asked you? Kinitari

Reported from where? As there are no official numbers, those numbers are as legit as the numbers that claim that 2,500 360's get sent to be repaired daily (and thats in the UK alone). Or the Gamespot manager who says there is a 30% return for faulty 360 consoles.

Who's to say that the refurbished consoles have a 30% or a 20% or a 50% fail rate? Odd's are they have a higher fail rate considering the fact that they were once already broken, so considering all these factors - who the heck knows what the numbers are? I am just going off of what has been given to me.

[QUOTE="nnavidson"]

[QUOTE="Vandalvideo"][QUOTE="nnavidson"]It's improbable that it would happen to you. It's probable that if you sell 10 million systems it will happen to 5 people.Vandalvideo

5 out of 10 million means that if out of 10 million attempts you should have success 5 times.

It's just like the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads should happen once for every two attempts. It's the mathmatical odds,

Of COURSE it's not likely to happen that you're going to be on your 13th, 11th, or even 5th 360 - but the point is it (apparently) still happens! That ALONE is higher than any other consumer product I have EVER heard about, that is the main focus here - irregardless of the fact that if I buy a 360 today, I probably wont have to worry about replacing it 11 times - I still don't want to have to replace it once, twice or thrice.

Of COURSE it's not likely to happen that you're going to be on your 13th, 11th, or even 5th 360 - but the point is it (apparently) still happens! That ALONE is higher than any other consumer product I have EVER heard about, that is the main focus here - irregardless of the fact that if I buy a 360 today, I probably wont have to worry about replacing it 11 times - I still don't want to have to replace it once, twice or thrice. Kinitari

[QUOTE="nnavidson"]

[QUOTE="Vandalvideo"][QUOTE="nnavidson"]It's improbable that it would happen to you. It's probable that if you sell 10 million systems it will happen to 5 people.Vandalvideo

5 out of 10 million means that if out of 10 million attempts you should have success 5 times.

It's just like the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads should happen once for every two attempts. It's the mathmatical odds,

I've already said it's not likely to happen to you.

My point was it was likely that it would happen to someone , therefore people posting complaints about this guy committing fraud are unwarranted.

That's assuming a 30 percent failure rate which we may never know for sure.

I've already said it's not likely to happen to you.My point was it was likely that it would happen to someone , therefore people posting complaints about this guy committing fraud are unwarranted.That's assuming a 30 percent failure rate which we may never know for sure.nnavidson

[QUOTE="nnavidson"]I've already said it's not likely to happen to you.My point was it was likely that it would happen to someone , therefore people posting complaints about this guy committing fraud are unwarranted.That's assuming a 30 percent failure rate which we may never know for sure.Vandalvideo

When 30 percent was multiplied out it turned out to be 5 in 10 million.

I'm not sure what the sales are but I assume they're closer to 13 million and 1 person has claimed this has happened.

Out of 13 million units sold, it's likely that one person has gone through 11 units using 30 percent as basis alone.

I do question this story though because you think Microsoft would go out of there way to gaurantee they send a working unit by the 5th attempt which would change the odds.

[QUOTE="Kinitari"]Of COURSE it's not likely to happen that you're going to be on your 13th, 11th, or even 5th 360 - but the point is it (apparently) still happens! That ALONE is higher than any other consumer product I have EVER heard about, that is the main focus here - irregardless of the fact that if I buy a 360 today, I probably wont have to worry about replacing it 11 times - I still don't want to have to replace it once, twice or thrice. Vandalvideo

Out of 13 million units sold, it's likely that one person has gone through 11 units using 30 percent as basis alone.I do question this story though because you think Microsoft would go out of there way to gaurantee they send a working unit by the 5th attempt which would change the odds.nnavidson

Theres a small chance it could happen to someone, but out of the 10 million or so 360 owners does it make sense that one of these owners would have 11 broken 360's.

Watch we can even use math, the chance of a 360 breaking is 3/10. The probability works as follows (p)^N where p is the probability and N is the number of trials. So the chance of 11 360's breaking in a row is (3/10)^11 which is 1/1.77 million so for every 1.77 million sold there will be one 360 owner who gets 11 broken 360's. Usually people just give up which is why I am guessin they dont have so many of these stories.

[QUOTE="Vandalvideo"][QUOTE="Kinitari"]Of COURSE it's not likely to happen that you're going to be on your 13th, 11th, or even 5th 360 - but the point is it (apparently) still happens! That ALONE is higher than any other consumer product I have EVER heard about, that is the main focus here - irregardless of the fact that if I buy a 360 today, I probably wont have to worry about replacing it 11 times - I still don't want to have to replace it once, twice or thrice. Kinitari

Theres a small chance it could happen to someone, but out of the 10 million or so 360 owners does it make sense that one of these owners would have 11 broken 360's.

Watch we can even use math, the chance of a 360 breaking is 3/10. The probability works as follows (p)^N where p is the probability and N is the number of trials. So the chance of 11 360's breaking in a row is (3/10)^11 which is 1/1.77 million so for every 1.77 million sold there will be one 360 owner who gets 11 broken 360's. Usually people just give up which is why I am guessin they dont have so many of these stories.

riflecow

[QUOTE="nnavidson"]Out of 13 million units sold, it's likely that one person has gone through 11 units using 30 percent as basis alone.I do question this story though because you think Microsoft would go out of there way to gaurantee they send a working unit by the 5th attempt which would change the odds.Vandalvideo

Your odds of winning the lottery are less likely than having 11 faulty 360s and yet the jackpot is reached occasionally.

[QUOTE="riflecow"]

Theres a small chance it could happen to someone, but out of the 10 million or so 360 owners does it make sense that one of these owners would have 11 broken 360's.

Watch we can even use math, the chance of a 360 breaking is 3/10. The probability works as follows (p)^N where p is the probability and N is the number of trials. So the chance of 11 360's breaking in a row is (3/10)^11 which is 1/1.77 million so for every 1.77 million sold there will be one 360 owner who gets 11 broken 360's. Usually people just give up which is why I am guessin they dont have so many of these stories.

Kinitari

lol thnx, 8th grade math to the rescue!! But yea the chances are really low, it's like winning in vegas chances are really low but it still happens right? Except the winner here is not really winning anything but being very disgruntled...

Theres a small chance it could happen to someone, but out of the 10 million or so 360 owners does it make sense that one of these owners would have 11 broken 360's.

Watch we can even use math, the chance of a 360 breaking is 3/10. The probability works as follows (p)^N where p is the probability and N is the number of trials. So the chance of 11 360's breaking in a row is (3/10)^11 which is 1/1.77 million so for every 1.77 million sold there will be one 360 owner who gets 11 broken 360's. Usually people just give up which is why I am guessin they dont have so many of these stories.

riflecow

[QUOTE="Kinitari"]

[QUOTE="Vandalvideo"][QUOTE="Kinitari"]Of COURSE it's not likely to happen that you're going to be on your 13th, 11th, or even 5th 360 - but the point is it (apparently) still happens! That ALONE is higher than any other consumer product I have EVER heard about, that is the main focus here - irregardless of the fact that if I buy a 360 today, I probably wont have to worry about replacing it 11 times - I still don't want to have to replace it once, twice or thrice. Vandalvideo

So it is down to tampering, or actual fault - but I think its easy to rule out tampering- considering the range of issues he's had, it implies that he knows an undetectable way to break 360's in multiple different ways. Ex. Sound issues, or disc errors. It's not ALWAYS the three rings. Plus, I dont know how he would mess up the dead on arrivals - unless of course he claims they are dead on arrivals but are not in actuality - but even then it does not explain the variation in problems that are most likely, not easy to 'forge' on your own.

[QUOTE="riflecow"]

Theres a small chance it could happen to someone, but out of the 10 million or so 360 owners does it make sense that one of these owners would have 11 broken 360's.

Watch we can even use math, the chance of a 360 breaking is 3/10. The probability works as follows (p)^N where p is the probability and N is the number of trials. So the chance of 11 360's breaking in a row is (3/10)^11 which is 1/1.77 million so for every 1.77 million sold there will be one 360 owner who gets 11 broken 360's. Usually people just give up which is why I am guessin they dont have so many of these stories.

Vandalvideo

Oh with all the news cropping up about failure rates and the added media attention, don't be suprised if in the next few weeks we don't hear the BBB or some similar organization yelling at microsoft.

[QUOTE="riflecow"]

Theres a small chance it could happen to someone, but out of the 10 million or so 360 owners does it make sense that one of these owners would have 11 broken 360's.

Watch we can even use math, the chance of a 360 breaking is 3/10. The probability works as follows (p)^N where p is the probability and N is the number of trials. So the chance of 11 360's breaking in a row is (3/10)^11 which is 1/1.77 million so for every 1.77 million sold there will be one 360 owner who gets 11 broken 360's. Usually people just give up which is why I am guessin they dont have so many of these stories.

Vandalvideo

Yea thats true, numbers are usually bloated, in order to get the true value we also need the number of broken and bought 360's added together.

I wish doctor Phil would interview Moore and Gates about this....DR Phil "WHAT ARE YOU THINKING !!"

Gates"......"

Moore " umm...You know, things break".

Maybe he had air circulation problems?

Well it's possible this happens. It does seem very unusual, even among the faulty xbox...

The reason all 360 owners are either 1 or much more is because when you send it in they send you back one that had been broken in the past.

It is a HORRIBLE cycle to be in. I'm getting my 3rd back soon (in the mail). To hold me over until then/bedroom use later I picked up one while my main was getting repaired for the 2nd time and it to is broken. This one didn't get 3 red lights, it only got one and I found out it is the ANA chip.

jdp0412

Your not serious....

yeah, the lemmings can say how great their games are, but good luck on finding a system that works to play them.

Game13a13y

[QUOTE="jdp0412"]

The reason all 360 owners are either 1 or much more is because when you send it in they send you back one that had been broken in the past.

It is a HORRIBLE cycle to be in. I'm getting my 3rd back soon (in the mail). To hold me over until then/bedroom use later I picked up one while my main was getting repaired for the 2nd time and it to is broken. This one didn't get 3 red lights, it only got one and I found out it is the ANA chip.

Silvereign

Your not serious....

It's true.

A majority of the units MS replaces broken consoles with are just refurbs. They just take the consoles in, do a quick fix, and ship them right back out again. That's why so few people have only had one console break on them.Once their first one goes, it's all downhill from there, and console after console breaks on them. This is how people end up with as high as 11 broken consoles.

Time to /thread:

*clears throat*

Probability of winning a lottery jackpot, courtesy of Wikipedia:

In a typical 6 from 49 lotto, 6 numbers are drawn from 49 and if the 6 numbers on a ticket match the numbers drawn, the ticket holder is a jackpot winner - this is true regardless of the order in which the numbers are drawn. The odds of being the jackpot winner are approximately 1 in 14 million (13,983,816 to be exact). The derivation of this result (and other winning scores) is shown in the Lottery mathematics article. To put these odds in context, suppose one buys one lottery ticket per week. 13,983,816 weeks is roughly 269,000 years; In the quarter-million years of play, one would only expect to win the jackpot once.

The odds of winning any actual lottery can vary widely depending on lottery design. "Mega Millions" is a very popular multi-state lottery in the United States which is known for jackpots that grow very large from time to time. This attractive feature is made possible simply by designing the game to be extremely difficult to win: 1 chance in 175,711,536. That's over twelve times smaller than the example above.

People win the lottery all the time, yet some of you find it hard to believe some guy got 11 broken Xbox 360s...

some people round here have missconseptions about probality. via likey out come he would have not gone thought 11 xboxes. thouught probality allows for him to go thought 10 xboxes. When you buy an xbox their is no big sticker that its bad when you buy it. you could flip a 1000 coin and never guess what the out come was. Also unrealy proability has allowed me to open locked door in the past simply by pushing the handel down thought thats another story....

That's pretty hardcore...-Beowulf

[QUOTE="Jandurin"]

[QUOTE="Vandalvideo"]Incredibly, absolutely, positively not going to happen in a real world situation.Kinitari

The bigger the sample, the more chance of ANYTHING happening.

Exactly - the mathematical probability (considering the fact that there are 10 mil 360 users) of someone getting 11 broked 360's with a 30% fail rate isn't that terrible... heres an example (my math is a bit rusty, so stick with me)

10,000,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

3,000,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

900,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

270,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

81,000

24,300

7,290

2,187

656.1

196.83

59.049

17.7147

5.31441 - this is the amount of people who (statistically speaking with a 30% failure rate) can have 13 failed 360's.

As has been stated a number of times before, the 30% failure rate is based on new 360's. Seeing how replacment 360's are refurbished or repaired models I would think the failure rate would rise above 30% after the first breakdown (depending on the repair quality it could be a minor increase or a major one).

If the 30% rate of failure for new 360 is to be belived, then that is very shocking. It would me there are more than 900,000 people out there on their 3rd 360. No matter which way you look at it, it is not very good when almost 1 million of your customers have had to deal with 3 breakdowns in the short lifespan of the console.

And as to the main topic, while the chances are low, the math shows that if everyone was as determined as the person then there would be about 60 people on their 11th 360. That fact alone just goes to show just how terrible the breakdown rate for the 360 is.

Please note that I know the likliness of anyone else getting through 11 360's (without tampering) are very low, but the fact is with the number of 360 owners increasing, the number of 360 owners going through their 3rd + 360 is also likely to increase and seeing as there are about 1 million right now thecomplaint is only likely to increase.

Bu bu bu bu bullcrap. 11? Com on. 48 would have added a bit more drama to this hoax.farrell2k

Read the article.

It's kind of funny when people try to excuse stuff like this. Like if it's made up. Or that it happened, but it was the user's fault. Or whatever...

Even if it's made up. Even if the console's owner had bad wiring or kept the console in a tight space, or whatever... there's no excuse at all for the actual rate of X360 failures. 11 broken X360s is absurd! As is anything up from 2 consecutive broken consoles.

Be it bad design, bad components or bad quality control, there's no excuse. And these are not "system crashes", they are severe hardware errors, that incapacitate the machine.

It's a serious problem - and one that Microsoft appears to be unable to resolve, looking at the continuing rate of broken consoles. If it was a launch error (which would also be unacceptable), it would have been fixed by now.

I also remember that once I broke my PS2... a friend of mine dropped it and the cd drive went dead. Sony (Portugal) went to my house to get it and replaced it one week later for a brand new machine - with no extra charges.

With this fault rate and with Microsoft closing their eyes, there's no way I'll buy a X360. Even if they fix the design problem, will they recall the consoles that are in stock? Don't think so, looking at the way they've acted until now.

[QUOTE="Chaos_HL21"]

[QUOTE="project343"]I'm still on my near-launch console... how the hell does a guy lose 11 Xbox 360's in that time?asdasd

Yeah Igot mine around this time last year.The failure rate of 360 is higher than normal, but on the 11th you have to think it is user error.

Did you read the link?

When his third 360 broke, one customer service rep suggested he look into the wiring at his house; electricity problems could have been causing the mess-ups. Problem: none of his other systems (not to mention his several computers and other electronics) have experienced any major problems, and his father is, coincidentally, an electrician. The specific suggestion was brought up by Microsoft customer service again after the eighth console repair. This time, just to be certain, Justin had a contractor come to the house and check the wiring, where he was told that everything was in order, with no abnormalities in voltage of any of house outlets. Nevertheless, customer service has continued to suggest this as a potential cause.

He actually cares about his !@#$. I doubt this is user error especially since he called a contractor to check out the wiring.

Well from their reactions it proves this is not a common accurance.

WOW, an article with actual proof.

***golf claps***

I accept this article as 100% reliable. How ever the MP3 file would not load for me... But I'm sure it's there as they say.

P.S.

I'm still waiting on factual 100% reliable proof that the failure rate is over 5%.

Todd Holmdahl, corporate vice president of the Gaming and Xbox Products Group, attributed the complaints over hardware to be a "vocal minority" and nothing more. "I would go back and say the vast majority of people love their experience. We continue to go back and address all of these issues on a case by case basis," he said.

[QUOTE="Kinitari"][QUOTE="Jandurin"]

[QUOTE="Vandalvideo"]Incredibly, absolutely, positively not going to happen in a real world situation.Philmon

The bigger the sample, the more chance of ANYTHING happening.

Exactly - the mathematical probability (considering the fact that there are 10 mil 360 users) of someone getting 11 broked 360's with a 30% fail rate isn't that terrible... heres an example (my math is a bit rusty, so stick with me)

10,000,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

3,000,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

900,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

270,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

81,000

24,300

7,290

2,187

656.1

196.83

59.049

17.7147

5.31441 - this is the amount of people who (statistically speaking with a 30% failure rate) can have 13 failed 360's.

As has been stated a number of times before, the 30% failure rate is based on new 360's. Seeing how replacment 360's are refurbished or repaired models I would think the failure rate would rise above 30% after the first breakdown (depending on the repair quality it could be a minor increase or a major one).

If the 30% rate of failure for new 360 is to be belived, then that is very shocking. It would me there are more than 900,000 people out there on their 3rd 360. No matter which way you look at it, it is not very good when almost 1 million of your customers have had to deal with 3 breakdowns in the short lifespan of the console.

And as to the main topic, while the chances are low, the math shows that if everyone was as determined as the person then there would be about 60 people on their 11th 360. That fact alone just goes to show just how terrible the breakdown rate for the 360 is.

Please note that I know the likliness of anyone else getting through 11 360's (without tampering) are very low, but the fact is with the number of 360 owners increasing, the number of 360 owners going through their 3rd + 360 is also likely to increase and seeing as there are about 1 million right now thecomplaint is only likely to increase.

The 30% failure rate is not based on anything but what people guess from seeing stories like this so you cant say his numbers are not right. In reality the failure rate is probably much lower.

The 30% failure rate is not based on anything but what people guess from seeing stories like this so you cant say his numbers are not right. In reality the failure rate is probably much lower. Wartzay

Exactly.... The guy you replied to also misread the article that was talking about launch system... Not new ones. That information is void in that article because of the source of just 1 manager from 1 store that is anonymous.

[QUOTE="Philmon"][QUOTE="Kinitari"][QUOTE="Jandurin"]

[QUOTE="Vandalvideo"]Incredibly, absolutely, positively not going to happen in a real world situation.Wartzay

The bigger the sample, the more chance of ANYTHING happening.

Exactly - the mathematical probability (considering the fact that there are 10 mil 360 users) of someone getting 11 broked 360's with a 30% fail rate isn't that terrible... heres an example (my math is a bit rusty, so stick with me)

10,000,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

3,000,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

900,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

270,000 360 owners - 30% of them fail

81,000

24,300

7,290

2,187

656.1

196.83

59.049

17.7147

5.31441 - this is the amount of people who (statistically speaking with a 30% failure rate) can have 13 failed 360's.

As has been stated a number of times before, the 30% failure rate is based on new 360's. Seeing how replacment 360's are refurbished or repaired models I would think the failure rate would rise above 30% after the first breakdown (depending on the repair quality it could be a minor increase or a major one).

If the 30% rate of failure for new 360 is to be belived, then that is very shocking. It would me there are more than 900,000 people out there on their 3rd 360. No matter which way you look at it, it is not very good when almost 1 million of your customers have had to deal with 3 breakdowns in the short lifespan of the console.

And as to the main topic, while the chances are low, the math shows that if everyone was as determined as the person then there would be about 60 people on their 11th 360. That fact alone just goes to show just how terrible the breakdown rate for the 360 is.

Please note that I know the likliness of anyone else getting through 11 360's (without tampering) are very low, but the fact is with the number of 360 owners increasing, the number of 360 owners going through their 3rd + 360 is also likely to increase and seeing as there are about 1 million right now thecomplaint is only likely to increase.

The 30% failure rate is not based on anything but what people guess from seeing stories like this so you cant say his numbers are not right. In reality the failure rate is probably much lower.

I thought 30% was based on retailers reports of customers reporting/returning broken 360's. That is what I read from somewhere but since I cant find the source I am willing to admit that I might have gotten it wrong. If anyone can clarify thise I would appreciate it.

[QUOTE="Jandurin"]Do we really believe in luck? I might, but I also might be foolish.
Runningflame570

Luck is an expression of the results probability grants a person. It requires no belief as it is almost a measurable quantity.

Anyway, are you trying to say you can measure luck? You can measure probability, but luck is the thing that determines which way the probability goes. And, if you're "lucky" then probability would go your way more than one who is "unlucky".

[QUOTE="Jandurin"]Not necessarily. I never heard much of the Sony exploding batteries, and they recalled the whole lot of them. It's very possible for a single 360 to explode with no repercussions for MS. Vandalvideo

so what's your point. It's highly unlikely you will win the lottery yet somehow someone eventually wins it.

Highly unlikely does not equal impossible specially when their is actually a problem this hardware.

I do find it funny reading all the defensive posts........trying to defend the indefensable.