@fig56: Because: in assessing how much a console will sell you pay attention to the market for it. The market for the wii is gone and they aren't coming back. The wii appealed to non-gamers who wanted to go bowling in their living rooms with their friends. Those people don't go "you mean I play Zelda on the go! Sign me up!" The market for the Switch is more like the market for N64 and Gamecube.
This is waaaaay optimistic. This would make it better selling in 4 years than the N64 was over it's whole lifetime. And excluding the wii, the N64 has been Nintendo's best selling console in decades.
@mikes1025: You say up and down, but as far as home consoles go, it's been almost exclusively downward since the NES. *Only* the Wii sold more than the generation I'm not exaggerating look at the chart. http://nintendoenthusiast.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Nintendo-Home-Console-Sales.jpg.
@mikes1025:But they were dropping long before the Wii U. The N64 got destroyed by the PS1 and the Gamecube was largely ignored by 3rd party devs. Even the Wii had very little success in later years. Looks to me like they're in a decade long drought.
@mikes1025: Don't get me wrong: I'm not arguing that Nintendo's consoles are bad. I just don't think they appeal to to most gamers now a days, and they don't have much appeal to me. If you like their games, that shouldn't dissuade you. But, with the exception of the Wii, they have sold less and less every generation. And if you like their games, it should worry you that they seem to have a losing business strategy.
@doctor_mg: Oh, I definitely think it will outsell the Wii U, if only because it would be hard to be that bad. But I think the fact is that it's not a tablet AND a nintendo console. At least, it doesn't have the functionality of both. And I will *gladly* take that back. If I can take the joicons off and use this like an ipad or android tablet, boom insta-buy. But it sounds like it won't even support Netflix at launch (https://goo.gl/iJXiQY), so I really don't offering support for kindle, evernote, pocket or much less for syncing or word docs and excel sheets.
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